It’s going to take some luck to get the late pick four at Belmont on Friday to pay anything more than action money. At least that’s how I feel, because I believe Sistercharlie in race 9, the New York Stakes, is an extremely likely winner at a short price.
Race 1:
Chasindamoney (#1)
Ran competitive speed figure last season after contesting fast pace in his two Belmont turf starts.
Makes his first start as a new gelding.
Phil Serpe does a good job with his turf runners, so this is not an overtly negative trainer switch.
6-1 on ML
Grade 1 Belmont Stakes | 1 1/2M, Dirt, 3-year-olds | Belmont, Race 11, 6:46 p.m. (ET) | TimeformUS PPs
Most Likely Winner: Justify (#1)
Identifying the best horse in a race and the best horse to risk one’s bankroll on from a value standpoint are two different things, and once again that handicapping tenet comes into play in the final leg of this year’s Triple Crown. Nobody will question that Justify is the most accomplished member of the field and strictly the one to beat. But there are just enough reasons to believe he could be vulnerable to not accept a win price that figures to be somewhere in the vicinity of 3-5.
VINO ROSSO was a non-factor in the Kentucky Derby, running ninth with a clean trip, but he is significantly better than he displayed in the slop that afternoon. He seemed to struggle over the off going, with jockey John Velazquez slapping him on the shoulder a few times to no response, and the colt dropped out of contention passing the wire the first time.
The Belmont Stakes wraps up the five-week odyssey that is the Triple Crown, and it’s fitting that the final leg is a 12-furlong battle of attrition, rightfully known as the “Test of the Champion.” Historically, the Belmont is just as much a test of stamina as it is talent, and there’s no reason to believe this year’s edition will be any different. A combination of tactical speed and stamina is a recipe for success in the Belmont, and I believe there to be a horse in this race trained by Bob Baffert that could be the perfect blend of speed and stamina – but his name isn’t Justify.
In addition to being fast and undefeated, JUSTIFY benefits from an ideal pace scenario in his quest for the Triple Crown. The pace-pressing/front-running winner of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, Justify could be loose on the lead in the Belmont Stakes.
Covering one full lap around Belmont Park’s massive main track can be a daunting task for any horse, let alone one standing on the precipice of becoming racing’s 13th winner of the Triple Crown. Even though we saw American Pharoah win with everything on the line just three short years ago, it is worth remembering that Big Sandy had tripped up more than one aspiring Triple Crown winner prior to 2015, several of them with credentials that were strong enough to make them worthy of the accomplishment.
UNO TROUBLE MAKER
Trainer: Bill Spawr
Last race: June 1, 7th
Finish: 2nd by 5 1/4
Beyer: 61
Spawr, one of California’s premier first-off-the-claim trainers, claimed this runner-up filly for $16,000 and is likely to target Del Mar with her. This 2-for-7 filly has upside.
Santa Anita
G1 Beholder Mile S
1/2 155
3/4 142
Fin 129
Top 3: Unique Bella 134, La Force 126, Paradise Woods 126
Note: Blazing pace battle between winner and show filly; Unique Bella has the top two TimeformUS Speed Figures for fillies and mares in 2018
:: Learn How to Use TimeformUS Speed Figures
Penn National