Nov. 17

Churchill
River City Handicap (race 10)

Aqueduct | Race 5 | Post Time 2:47 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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Race 1: Dream Friend (#2)
Was heavily bet in his debut and showed brief speed before fading.
His 84 TimeformUS Speed Figure is nearly equal to that of his main rival.
Faces an unusually weak field for this level.
5-2 on ML
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There are two races I’m interested in at Del Mar: the Grade 3 Bob Hope for 2-year-olds and the preceding race, a maiden special weight affair for California-bred fillies and mares. Here are a few plays I’ll be considering in those races:

RACE 7 – MSW

Aqueduct | Race 5 | Post Time 2:17 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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Race 3: Tiznow’s Smile (#5)
Is in the best form of her career after struggling in weaker races for so long.
Ran better than it appears last time, as she was buried down inside while the top two finishers got the jump on her.
Has always been bred to be best going route distances and is finally getting a chance to do so.
4-1 on ML

First a mea culpa: We put the wrong race number on our Pick last week but we’re pretty sure most of you realized it was the 11th race, not the 9th at Gulfstream Park West. Then we thought our exacta box recommendation was a bit of a shot in the dark somewhere around the quarter pole as favored Mercusio lengthened his advantage while our sneaky long shot He’s Smokin Hot was forced way outside—but wadda ya know? He came along nicely at 30-to-1 to complete a stone cold $64 Quick-Pix exacta.

Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:17 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up

In some ways, this is actually a more interesting race on the dirt. There is likely to be value to exploit since Glossy, who was the morning-line favorite on the turf, has been left in the race. There are true dirt allowance horses in this race, and Glossy has never indicated that she is talented enough to compete with runners of their caliber.

Pick-3, races 4-6

A couple of mid-card live wires will be the focus of my Sunday attention at Aqueduct as I go all-in on back-to-back singles. Here’s the play:

Race 4: This isn’t the first time Danny Gargan has taken a horse from Chad Brown, taken a little time to get to know the animal, and then aggressively entered him/her back for less than the original claiming price. That’s the ploy here with Wise Strike (2), who was haltered for $50,000 and now goes turf to dirt while turning back for $40,000 as strictly the filly to beat.

Race 1: Rucksack (#5)
The Pace Projector is predicting that he will speed off to a clear early lead in a race that features no other pace players.
Has earned speed figures that put him just a few lengths off the likely favorites.
DRF Formulator Fact: Over the past 5 years, horses claimed off Nick Zito are 8 for 36 (22 percent, $2.01 ROI) in their next starts.
6-1 on ML