“Never bet against a legitimate favorite,” a wagering guru warned, and the advice fell short. Betting against a legit favorite is not truly a “bet-against.”
Legit favorites have clear attributes. There is no debate. The catch is maybe the odds are askew. If so, it can make sense to bet another horse. Not to go “against” the favorite, but rather bet “on” a higher-odds alternative.
Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 3:52 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up
We cautioned going into our Pick last week that the race was likely to be a bit of a mess and it was, with just one of our gimmick plays (Chaos Reigns) getting into the money by completing the superfecta. It was a relatively quiet week all around with eight BreezeFigs maidens coming home on top at: Delta, Gulfstream (three), Laurel, Oaklawn (BreezeFigs trifecta), Tampa and Turfway. Today’s card is a bit enticing and we found two early chances to get some cash, back see below. Stay safe and good luck!
Many will focus Saturday on Oaklawn Park, where the program is headed by the weekend’s important Kentucky Derby prep, the Rebel Stakes.
I wanted to dip more deeply into Hot Springs, but could not come up with solid opinions in the most important races.
Each week in this space, the top Beyer performances by maiden winners will be featured and analyzed. Click here for a complete archive.
Noble Reflection
March 7, 7th race Oaklawn, MdSpWt63k
Beyer: 89
6f 1:09.40, 1st by 4 1/2 lengths
gr. g. 3, Liam’s Map – Deal of the Decade, by Tiznow
Encouraged by the way Life Is Good dominated his latest prep with a 107 Beyer Speed Figure, bettors pounded the colt down to 2-1 favoritism in Pool 4 of the 2021 Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which closed Sunday evening following a customary three-day wagering window.
Life Is Good stayed unbeaten in three career starts with an eight-length romp Saturday in the San Felipe at Santa Anita. The Bob Baffert-trained colt became a decisive Pool 4 favorite on the strength of that triumph, with Essential Quality closing as the second choice at 5-1 and Greatest Honour next at 6-1.
Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 4:24 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up
Aqueduct | Race 4 | Post Time 2:25 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up
