The outcome of the Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita could be determined in the first 100 yards. If Midnight Storm clears the field at the start, it is going to be very difficult to catch him. Unbeaten in three grass starts, he got a 90 Beyer Speed Figure in his grass debut last August and followed it up 21 days later with a 95 when he dominated the Del Mar Derby at 17-1. In his first 4-year-old start, an optional claimer, the colt won by nearly eight lengths and got a 106. This horse may not need the lead to win, but he has been brilliant with the lead.

What we all saw, heard, and felt a few minutes before 7 p.m. last Saturday was powerful, uplifting, and cathartic. It was a shared moment that anyone who was watching on television, and especially those at Belmont Park, will never forget.

Nothing can ever change that memory, not silly comparisons to Secretariat, not unnecessary historical perspective, not even a Beyer Speed Figure of 105.

The moment was enough, the absolute explosion in the grandstand, the American Pharoah curtain call wonderfully done by Victor Espinoza, the good feelings that linger still.

In November 1998, a horse named Time for a Prize untangled himself from a three-horse accident at Golden Gate Fields and bolted off the track and into the real world. He was finally cornered after heading the wrong way up an off-ramp of Interstate 580.

Thoroughbred racing jumped the rails in a big way last Saturday with the triumph of American Pharoah in the Belmont Stakes. Suddenly, after 37 years of wondering which horse would be next, or if there ever would be another, the one thing everyone knew about horse racing was made flesh and blood once again.

The Triple Crown.

As a dozen horses since 1978 tried to win the Belmont Stakes and the Triple Crown, racing purists have harbored mixed feelings about some of these bids. It would be almost a sacrilege for a less-than-great horse to have his name inscribed on the list of Triple Crown winners that includes some of the sport’s immortals.

Now, after his dominant victory in the Belmont Stakes to become only the 12^th ever to capture the Triple Crown, the debate shifts from whether American Pharoah can make history to his place in it.

The best way to address that, I think, is to compare American Pharoah to other Triple Crown winners at this stage of their careers, although that isn’t so simple. But I do think it’s very safe to say he’s better than Assault and Omaha, who are widely regarded as the weakest Triple Crown winners.

Racing fans have many reasons to admire American Pharoah. The colt possesses high speed, which he displayed in the Preakness. He is a battler, as he proved in the Kentucky Derby. He always puts forth a top effort; he has scored six straight victories by a combined total of 30 lengths.

As he bids to win the Belmont Stakes, American Pharoah possesses not only superior credentials but also a potentially significant tactical advantage. In a field with a shortage of early speed, he has the potential to take the lead and control the race from start to finish.

Rosencrantz and Guildenstern, Hamlet’s feckless pals, spent the first part of their play written by Tom Stoppard wondering why a tossed coin kept coming up heads. After seventy-some tosses, all heads, they paused to consider the meaning.

“A weaker man might be moved to reexamine his faith, for nothing else at least in the law of probability,” said one.

A toss. Heads.

“Getting a bit of a bore, isn’t it,” said the other.

“A bore? What about the suspense?”

Can American Pharoah win the Belmont Stakes and become the first winner of the American Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978?
Of course he can, but he’s a very bad bet to do so at 3-5.

Broadly speaking, the parimutuel market on horse racing is efficient and rational. Favorites win more than second choices, who win more than third choices, and so on. Prices, shaped by tens or hundreds of thousands of individual speculators, generally end up being a pretty accurate reflection of horses’ actual chances.

Prior to the Kentucky Derby, more people picked American Pharoah than any other horse. Prior to the Preakness, just about everybody picked American Pharoah. This week, hardly anyone I talk with is picking American Pharoah to win the Belmont Stakes.

The near Triple Crown misses have collectively psyched us all out. I definitely include myself in that group.

Mort Sahl, the legendary political comic who wrote campaign jokes for presidential hopeful John F. Kennedy, likes to tell the story of the time he was flying with the candidate from one primary state to another when the humor of a particular conversation turned decidedly dark.

“Sahl,” Kennedy said, “if this plane goes down, you’ll get one line at the bottom of all the newspaper stories: ‘Comedian also on board.’ ”

Mort Sahl, meet Keen Ice.