The Belmont Stakes drew a hefty field of 12 but does not include the winner of either the Kentucky Derby or Preakness. Six different horses comprised the trifectas from the two races, and among those runners, only Derby runner-up Lookin At Lee and Preakness show horse Senior Investment are in the field. Neither has much early speed, but that may not be a bad thing in light of the TimeformUS Pace Projector.
The Belmont Stakes features a group of 3-year-olds who are either inconsistent, unproven at the graded-stakes level, or a combination of the two. With Wednesday’s defection of last year’s juvenile male champion, Classic Empire, Irish War Cry was made the tepid 7-2 morning-line favorite, but it wouldn’t be a stunner to see other horses vie for favoritism as post time approaches.
The dynamic of this year’s Belmont Stakes, especially from a wagering standpoint, changed dramatically shortly before the post-position draw with the sudden and unfortunate withdrawal of Preakness runner-up Classic Empire. With the likely odds-on favorite out of the lineup, several key contenders who might have offered some value on the tote will now wind up short prices themselves, most notably Wood Memorial winner Irish War Cry.
Even following the announcement Wednesday morning that juvenile champion Classic Empire would not enter the Belmont Stakes due to a foot abscess, there still remains ample speed for a race at 1 ½ miles. Five of the 12 entrants are horses that prefer to race up close -- Meantime, Irish War Cry, Epicharis, Gormley, and Twisted Tom -- likely assuring no speed horse will get away with stealing the Belmont.
Of the five speedy types only longshot Meantime looks to be a need-the-lead type, with the others appearing most comfortable in pressing or stalking roles.
The third leg of the Triple Crown looms as an anticlimax, with the winners of the first two legs declining to participate, the undefeated Peter Pan winner taking a pass (despite having only three career starts behind him), and the news that 2016 juvenile male champ and Preakness runner-up Classic Empire won’t start because of a foot issue.
Where does that leave us? Well, on the positive side, it leaves us with a big field of 12 set to travel one full lap around Belmont’s main track, and with a morning-line favorite pegged at a tepid 7-2.
The 1 1/2-mile distance of the Belmont Stakes will be uncharted territory for all 12 horses entered in Saturday’s race, and most of them will never stare down a race of that length again.
The Kentucky Derby poses a similar test at 1 1/4 miles five weeks earlier, but history has shown that the winners of the Derby and Belmont can be very different types of horses.
For all the accomplishments in his remarkable career, including victories in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Breeders’ Cup Classic, 1989 Horse of the Year Sunday Silence also lives in racing notoriety for one of his losses – an eight-length defeat at the hands of archrival Easy Goer in the Belmont Stakes, extending the Triple Crown drought of the time.
IRISH WAR CRY seemed to be moving well for most of the Kentucky Derby, right in contention until the top of the stretch, and then jockey Rajiv Maragh went from having plenty of horse to suddenly none, and the colt faded to 10th, beaten 16 lengths. After that race, trainer Graham Motion seemed inclined to skip the rest of the Triple Crown. But after being encouraged by the colt’s training, he changed course and opted for the Belmont.
The withdrawal of standout Classic Empire has turned the Belmont Stakes into a scramble. Perhaps it would have been chaotic anyway. After all, seven of the last nine Belmont winners paid more than $20. Bettors shopping for a price will find plenty of choices, including an improving colt whose form might be better than it appears.
