David's Analysis: 

As is the case with so many of these maiden 2-year-old races, there’s plenty of guesswork to be done here, and I don’t want to get overly involved from a wagering standpoint.

With Reagan's Flame failing to draw into the field, I'm happy to scratch into #7 Z Train as my top pick. She has a nice European pedigree for these conditions and looked compact and quick in the lone turf workout I saw. I also like the way #2 Tammy Lynn has been working, and #3 Baraye seems more turf meant after a dirt debut. However, this isn't a race where I want to get heavily involved to start things off, doing little more than kicking off a thin Pick-5.

Mike's Response: 

I don't have a lot to add here. David highlighted the horses I was most interested in, though this is not a race I am likely to be playing with any real interest. If there is an early Pick 5 to be put together, I would focus on #s 2,3 and 7.

Mike's Analysis: 

This race might just come down to the two leading trainers at the meet, with Chad Brown saddling the favorite, #5 Accretive, against the Linda Rice team of #1 Tonal Impact and #6 Guntown. 

I couldn't quite get to Guntown, who is going to be the best price of the three. David can make the case for him.

I am unlikely to take the short price on Accretive in straight-up wagers, but I thought he had a perfect return from the layoff last time when cruising up and then being forced to race a little in the stretch before easily prevailing. He is tough in here if taking a step forward now, though he will have to do that assuming Tonal Impact shows up - as he usually does. Tonal Impact has been listed as a vet scratch since last seen getting in over his head in a Grade 2. Two back he earned a career-best 100 Beyer while overcoming a slow start at this distance. 

David's Response: 

I actually agree with Mike that Accretive might be pretty good, but I’m a little surprised by the stretch-out to a mile with this horse. I just didn’t want to take a short price on him trying the distance for the first time.

Tonal Impact might just be too strong for this field if bringing his good race, but I had the same concerns as Mike, as it feels a little concerning that a horse who raced so consistently since coming into this barn has now been off for 2 months.

#6 Guntown doesn’t have the credentials of his stablemate, but he has been mildly unlucky in both starts since getting claimed by Rice. He spent a lot of time on the rail on Aug. 3 when that clearly wasn’t the place to be, and he still rallied strongly when angled out late. Then last time, he again got caught inside after getting taken up at the start. That race was won by a closer, but that horse made an outside run whereas Guntown had to deal with kickback and angle back inside – not ideal for a closer. He’s finally drawn in an outside position and I think he has more tactical speed than we saw last time.

David's Analysis: 

It’s sad to see a race like the Flower Bowl draw such an uninspiring field, but it’s not as if it’s some surprise based on the way these stakes races have been trending in New York. There really isn’t much here from a wagering standpoint, other than taking a stand in multi-race bets that go through this.

I couldn’t see past the two from the Glens Falls. #2 McKulick was the winner that day, and she deserves credit for running down War Like Goddess, who had previously possessed such a reliable finishing kick in these marathon races. Yet the trip really benefited McKulick, as she was able to relax off the pace (something the favorite struggled with) and was produced at the perfect time by Irad Ortiz.

#4 Amazing Grace finished a couple of lengths behind her that day, but she undoubtedly had the worse journey. She was reserved farther off the pace early, and Tyler Gaffalione attempted to move a little closer on the backstretch while saving ground. However, he put himself in a bad spot, just in behind a longshot that was about to back up into them. He tried to angle around that foe, but got pushed into her (by McKulick) at the bend into the turn, losing momentum and all the ground gained. You really need to watch it on the head-on to get a true sense of what happened. The mare actually did well to gather herself and get up for third after that. I think there’s an argument she might have won with a clean trip, and she’ll be the better price this time. That’s all I’ve got here.

Mike's Response: 

I'm not sure why the Flower Bowl was actually carded with only four entered, though I guess the Breeders' Cup trumps all. I slightly preferred McKulick, though I can't argue with David's take on the only alternative.  

Mike's Analysis: 

Thought this was a fairly wide-open entry-level allowance sprint. As a jumping-off point: I didn't really want much to do with slight ML favorite, #5 Frat Pack. He is lightly raced for top connections, and can easily improve again here, but I haven't been thrilled with any of his races so far.

Maybe I'm reading into things too much regarding the recent concentration on turf races with #3 Awesome Native, but I am wary of him now - especially since he didn't run at all when getting to that surface last time. He can win here, as his dirt form is actually quite good, but I went looking elsewhere.

#2 Cape Trafalgar bumped into a horse that I think is pretty good when first back from the layoff at Keeneland, and wound up dueling with that rival before weakening in the stretch (the runner-up in that race also has talent, though he hasn't been seen since). Cape Trafalgar came right back with an easy win going a mile on a wet track, then improved again when cut back to sprint last time, where he finished gamely into an even pace and ran past Frat Pack. He has faced some tough competition along the way and I prefer him sprinting. 

David's Response: 

I don’t disagree with Mike’s assessment of that Aug. 5 race at the level, and also prefer Cape Trafalgar from there. We also have a similar view of Awesome Native. Beyond the surface switches, I find it particularly concerning that he seems to have lost all of his early speed.

And speaking of speed, it’s not like there’s a ton of it in this race. Frat Pack has led in two consecutive starts but through relatively moderate paces. Daufuskie Island has speed, but feels like he might be on the other side of his form cycle.

I wonder if #7 Ludwig might be finding himself in the right kind of spot stepping up against winners for the first time. I don’t know that he beat the toughest maiden field you’re ever going to see last time, but he did it convincingly by showing speed with blinkers on for the first time. Merely repeating that effort gives him a strong chance to beat this field, and I like that he’s drawn outside of his major pace rival, giving Junior Alvarado some options.

If any pace does develop, I could certainly see #4 Chileno getting involved late. He’s been in great form since the claim, closing into a pace that otherwise held together last time. Sprinting is an interesting choice for this colt, but Rice tends to have success with these counterintuitive moves.

David's Analysis: 

This is another stakes that’s lacking a bit in field size and wagering appeal, though at least it’s a better race than the Flower Bowl.

I suppose #5 Dazzling Blue will be tough to beat if she runs back to her Victory Ride. I have to admit that I wasn’t much of a believer in her prior to that, since she was winning slow races against overmatched competition. I was encouraged that she at least broke well, something she had struggled with in the past. She never challenged the winner, but was second-best, if shortening stride a bit at the end. A repeat of that performance might be good enough here, but it feels like she’s going to be an awfully short price now that she’s more exposed.

She really doesn’t have much of an advantage over her two main rivals on paper. #4 Alvar Starr is perhaps a little more appealing to some given her consistent record and progression. While she wasn’t exactly beating the top older female sprinters at Delaware, she absolutely crushed that field last time. Yet she is picking up some weight here, and has to deal with other speed to her inside.

I just thought #1 Jersey Pearl might sit the right trip. Irad Ortiz seems likely to take her back off an expected early duel, and she’s run well from that position in the past. I won’t hold the Test against her, since she may have been ridden a bit too close to an honest pace. Cutting back to 6 furlongs should benefit her, and she might be the best price of the main contenders.

Mike's Response: 

I am in total agreement regarding Jersey Pearl and am hoping she is 3/1 at post time. 

Mike's Analysis: 

Among the experienced runners in this MSW turf route for 2-year-olds, I prefer #3 Tom Collins, who appeared to gain valuable experience in that off-turn race two weeks ago. Rosario let this horse use his speed from the start while not conceding to anyone, then just allowed him to tire out gradually in what looked like a designed prep for this turf-bred colt. He is back quickly for this for a trainer who has had success with his juveniles on the grass up here over the past couple of years. 

The firsters I am most interested in are #5 Zverev and #11 Live to Ride. David likes the former so he can talk about that one.

Live to Ride needs a scratch to get in, but he is bred to be a turf router - and perhaps a precocious one. By top turf sire Kingman, Live to Ride is out of a dam who was a debut winner as a 2-year-old in France, then was stakes-placed in her second start. Her two best foals to date were also juvenile debut winners in France, including Wind Chimes, who wound up winning a Group 3 and placed in two major Group 1 races as a 3-year-old. McPeek is one of the more underrated trainers with 2-year-olds, especially at Saratoga, where he is 19% with a positive ROI with all juvenile starters over the past five years (5 for 23 with turf routers in that sample, 22%, $3.20 ROI). 

David's Response: 

#5 Zverev worked a pretty impressive 10 2/5 at the sale. Oscar Performance has been a burgeoning turf influence, and the dam’s side pedigree doesn’t get much better. He’s out of Grade 1 winner Balance, who is a half-sister to the mighty Zenyatta. I like the way he’s been training for this debut, and Cherie DeVaux has been in the midst of a strong season.

If there are some scratches, I would take note if #12 Unique Insight draws into the field. While I don’t necessarily think of Gun Runner as a turf sire, that makes it all the more interesting that Chad Brown is starting this one on grass. The dam was a stakes winner on this surface, and I really like what I’ve seen from this colt’s workouts. The times haven’t been fast, but he appears to have a beautiful stride on him.

David's Analysis: 

This appears to be another potentially loaded maiden special weight for the 2-year-olds, as it has become more customary in recent years for the top barns to unveil their best runners over the last few weeks of the meet.

Among the firsters, #7 Enlighten will likely attract some attention based on his gate workout two back when he went in company with impressive debut winner Fierceness, interestingly another son of City of Light. He was slightly second best, but held his own with that talented stablemate. He trains like one that finishes his workouts better than he starts them, so debuting at 7 furlongs makes sense. I just wouldn’t want to take too short a price given the expected quality of this field.

#10 Jefferson Street also looks pretty live. The Godolphin homebred is from a quieter branch of a productive female family, but has been training like a horse with ability. That Aug. 19 drill was in company with opening day debut winner Sugar Hi, and he was going better than her in a fast time over the training track.

Mott also sends out one of the experienced runners in #1 Ask Isaac. This colt was green on debut, getting very rank early before staying on reasonably well while trying to close outside. I’m not sure about the switch to dirt and cutback even though he has some pedigree, but I do think he has upside.

The two with experience who merit the most serious consideration those exiting the July 22 maiden race. #3 General Partner got a very aggressive ride on debut, going after impressive winner Valentine Candy early and hanging on pretty well into deep stretch. If he needed to gain some fitness from that race, he got it and should be set for a step forward here.

Yet the horse I want most out of that race is #9 Dive Bomber, who had a more eventful trip. Florent Geroux tried to get forward that day, but was steadied back into the far turn when he couldn’t quite hold his position. He recovered to pick up the chase on the outside before angling back down to the rail late, but he never stopped trying. Now he adds blinkers, and he’s been working very well since the debut. I think we’re going to see a better effort this time.

Mike's Response: 

If one of the newcomers happens to be the goods, so be it. I don't want first-time starters in these seven-furlong races - especially when the experienced horses have already run well. That's the case with both General Partner and Dive Bomber, and I want to focus on them in this race. While not disagreeing with anything noted above regarding the latter, I prefer General Partner and he will be the bigger part of my play.

Mike's Analysis: 

I spent all of 2022 betting against #4 Big Invasion and losing money. He is quite good, obviously, and ran very well in the Grade 1 Jaipur two back while rebounding from a tough trip in his prior race at Churchill. He is the horse to beat, but I'll play against him one more time, mostly due to that poor effort most recently when shipped to Ascot. 

I greatly respect #3 Thin White Duke, whose 0-7 2023 record belies how well he has run to this point as a 5-year-old, particularly up here. The lack of early speed in this race, however, led me to want to take a shot with #2 Dancing Buck first back from the layoff. 

Dancing Buck doesn't need the lead to be effective, but he can take advantage if that opportunity presents itself, and his best race gives him a real chance in this spot. He just has to be ready off the bench.

David's Response: 

There are definitely some questions surrounding Big Invasion after that hastily planned trip to Royal Ascot. He ran well in the Jaipur, but I can’t say that he ever turned into the horse that it looked like he might become during that stellar 3-year-old season.

The lack of speed in this race does concern me, but I’ve seen plenty of slow-paced races fall apart so far this week, on both turf courses. #3 Thin White Duke loves this course and distance, and seems to thrive on racing. A little residual give in the ground is going to help him, and I don’t mind the rider switch to Jose Lezcano, who rides the turf as well as anyone.

I also respect the improved #5 Our Shot, who was game in victory last time. It just feels like he’s exposed at this point, and I didn’t necessarily want to take a short price on him.

David and Mike's Joint Late Pick-5

David and Mike put their heads together to come up with a late Pick-5 wager that incorporates both of their opinions (Total wagers: $148)

A / B / C
R8:  2,3 / -- / 4,5
R9:  6,8 / 10,11 / 3
R10:  1 / 5,8 / 3,4,6
R11:  3,6 / 4 / 1
R12:  2,5 / 4,7 / 3,11

David's Analysis: 

#10 Richies Princess is definitely one to consider off her debut victory, where she was bet down to strong favoritism. She got a solid speed figure that day, but she’s stepping up into a deeper spot now. I’m not totally convinced about the quality of the field she beat, and the figures assigned to that race honestly feel a little high for those horses. Furthermore she’s going to take money again, and this isn’t the most potent move for Larry Rivelli. He’s 5 for 24 with last-out debut winners making their second starts on dirt, but the ROI is just $1.17.

I considered #6 Athena Beach, who I know Mike has some interest in, as she cuts back in distance. Yet there’s so much speed signed on, it feels like something has to give.

At least a horse like #11 Majestic Return is drawn farthest outside of the potential frontrunners, so perhaps she can work out some kind of trip. I ultimately decided that I wanted the horses out of the July 9 race won Imhavingamoment. That feels like one that might slightly underrated by Beyer, as the winner has turned out to be pretty good. Majestic Return ran well in that spot, contesting the pace before fading.

#8 Fancy Feline is the one who interests me most out of that race. She can be a bit of a plodder at times, but her running style figures to work out well in this spot. I can make some excuses for her races earlier this year, and her most recent effort in that July 9 race suggests she’s back on track. The price should be fair enough.

Mike's Response: 

I struggled with this race, mostly due to the apparent overabundance of pace signed on. I initially went looking for closers, but after not really being able to fall for David's pick (and Fancy Feline is a horse I will be using), I went back to the drawing board. #6 Athena Beach has been a forward horse in each of her five starts to date - four of them wins - and she might be in an untenable spot here with speed to both sides in a big field. I do think - or, perhaps, talked myself into the idea - that turning back out of a two-turn, nine-furlong race might get her off the bridle a bit in the early stages of this race. Going back to her career debut: while she was technically in front at every call, she was beaten to the early lead and briefly sat off another horse. She didn't appear to be headstrong in the first part of that race, but she was so much better than those horses that she just took over on her own and never looked back. She's in trouble here if she gets locked up, but she has run well twice routing, suggesting that she has the stamina to withstand pace pressure, should that be the trip she is destined for. I'll use others but will take a shot with Athena Beach if the price is there. 

Mike's Analysis: 

I don't trust anyone in this race and want to avoid all of the even reasonably short prices. I won't lose a bunch of money on #5 Bad to the Bones, but I want to bet this horse against this field. He has been better on dirt to this point, but after going through his two turf starts last year, I'm not sure that he isn't at least as good on this surface. His first turf start came right off the long layoff last May, and he had no chance in that race after winding up last early in a race that was dominated up close. He returned to the grass four starts later (after getting rained off a couple of times), and got bumped early to wind up out of position in another race that featured little passing. He earned a couple of improved figures on dirt in his first two starts to Mott and now returns to turf while stretching back out, and this looks like the right kind of field for a horse like him. 

David's Response: 

I can’t argue with Mike’s idea in this race, since the favorites don’t exactly stand on solid ground.

I’m giving #1 Danzigwiththestars one more chance. I’ve been chasing this horse a bit, but at least he has been improving with every start this season. That’s his pattern, as he typically takes some time to round into form following a layoff. He ran deceptively well two back, and then last time was probably facing a better field at this level. There’s some pace in here to set up his late run, and he’s usually a fair price.

David's Analysis: 

This Jockey Club Gold Cup is easily the most interesting stakes event on this card, and it drew an intriguing field. It’s a good wagering race if you can look beyond the two favorites. That’s not to say that #1 Proxy and #4 Rattle N Roll look particularly vulnerable. I actually think they’re both pretty legitimate. Yet they are closing types, and I always want to keep an open mind in races where the favorites lack speed and the pace is murky.

Proxy has arguably been mildly disappointing this year, as he hasn’t been able to pick up another Grade 1 to go along with his Clark victory from late last season. He’s run well in a few spots, but has also disappointed in some major races. The distance of this race is supposed to really work for him, and it was encouraging to see him show some improved tactical speed last time, albeit against weaker. He’s hard to completely trust, but he’s capable.

Rattle N Roll feels a little more reliable. This horse just shows up, and he wins. He’s another who has no issues with distance, and he often doesn’t seem to be bothered by pace either. He just consistently produced that strong finishing kick, and seems to have a way of getting there. I thought he ran the best race of his career last time in the Stephen Foster, making a powerful late run at West Will Power. I suppose you have to decide how short a price you’re willing to take, but I’m definitely using this horse.

If you want to get creative here, there are definitely horses you can build cases for. I know Mike likes one of those in #6 Tyson, so I’ll let him cover that horse.

I’m swinging for an even bigger price with #3 Warrior Johny. This gelding obviously has a lot to prove in a race of this stature, but it’s not as if this is the toughest Jockey Club Gold Cup we’ve ever seen. His top speed figure isn’t that far off what the two favorites typically produce, and he ran that career-best effort over this track last summer. Yet what makes him most dangerous in my eyes is his tactical speed. There doesn’t appear to be any confirmed frontrunner in this field, and I have to imagine that the connections will be looking to get forward with this horse. He was unable to do that last time at Ellis going shorter when he got steadied back onto the backstretch and was out of position over a speed-favoring track. It feels like those first two outings of 2023 were just stepping stones, and now he’s ready for a tougher assignment going this longer distance. I’m expecting a step forward, and will bet him at the expected price.

Mike's Response: 

I hope I haven't overcomplicated this race, as I do believe that the two favorites are legitimate horses. I'm not necessarily afraid of either Proxy or Rattle N Roll, but they are the clear horses to beat in this - admittedly not stellar - running of the JCGC. 

I have David's pick in there, for the same reasons he has perfectly laid out above. He is a use for me.

I want to take a small shot with surface switcher #6 Tyson, who clearly has talent and comes into this off of back-to-back fast wins over synthetic. This colt is lightly raced but he looked like a true stayer. He is also bred for dirt, being closely related this this year's Belmont and Travers winner, Arcangelo (this is the female family of Belmont Stakes winners Rags to Riches and Jazil). He has also proven to be versatile in terms of running style on the all-weather. He wired that Grade 2 last time when the pace didn't develop at the start. Two back, he sat in and among horses for a long way before getting into the clear, and still produced a strong run through the stretch to gun down an in-form Treason. This trainer hasn't run a horse at Saratoga in quite a while, but she knows what she is doing and has shipped in here to win big races in the past. 

Mike's Analysis: 

Morning line favorite, #4 Camcha ran fine first-time out at this level when facing her class-dropping then-stablemate Orange Freeze. She ran fine there, though you can usually rely on Clement firsters to show what they are made of right away. She is a player here with only slight improvement, though I didn't necessarily think she was worth any short price. 

#2 Pinstripepizzo is an excellent alternative at a better price. She ran better than it looks with a no-chance trip when last on grass two back. She can't stand up on dirt, so forgiving that last one when rained off. This is the class drop she needs and this is her surface. 

I prefer her and thought both #3 Dream Road and #7 Stone of Destiny could also be used somewhere at fair prices. 

David's Response: 

I totally agree with Mike on Pinstripepizzo and nearly put her on top as well. I also think this race is a little more complicated than simply defaulting to Camcha, though she can obviously win.

My top pick is #5 Jannie Mae. She’s going to be a price in here as one who has already had plenty of chances. Yet I think she’s run deceptively well in a few of her turf races this season. There is nothing but red splashed across her PPs in TimeformUS due to all the fast paces she’s been setting. She is a little fainthearted, but she’s had a right to tire in most of those recent starts. Now she lands in a race where there isn’t a ton of speed on paper, and she’s drawn a better post position under a savvy speed rider.