David's Analysis: 

There’s a lot of guesswork to be done in the opener among first time starters, with the only experienced runner not looking particularly compelling. I probably won’t get too invested here, and I really don’t want to settle for short prices. I suppose #7 Moonlight is the more fancied of the two Todd Pletcher runners with Irad Ortiz up, but it’s not as if this horse has some convincing turf pedigree. I didn’t mind the turf workout of stablemate #1 Corruption, who figures to be a better price.

#6 Modica has a nice pedigree to be a runner, by underrated sire Hard Spun from the female family of that one’s son Spun to Run. Again, it’s not exactly turf breeding, but there’s plenty of versatility here. The horse appears to be working well and George Weaver can have one ready to win on debut.

I put #3 Carson’s Run on top. Christophe Clement is another trainer who does well in this situation, and this horse may get somewhat overlooked due to the presence of Dylan Davis in the saddle. I liked his last dirt work in company with the more experienced Bomb Squad, as he easily sidled up alongside that mate and was striding out nicely. This is another horse lacking much turf pedigree, but I can see why they’re starting him on grass given the way he moved in that workout.

Mike's Response: 

Like David, I am unlikely to be too involved in this opener. I did prefer #1 Corruption, based on pedigree and recent works, but am unlikely to be making any kind of big bet on this race. 

Mike's Analysis: 

I found it hard to warm up to the longer prices in this field of seven betting interests. David landed on the one that I have in there, so he can elaborate on #6 Socciatore. I just thought this was a great spot for #4 Bold Journey and I will lean on him as the second choice. Bold Journey ran fine in his last two starts on turf, but he is better on dirt, and he was in good form on this surface prior to switching over. 

David's Response: 

I agree with Mike that #4 Bold Journey is very much the horse to beat, and I strongly prefer him to #5 Osbourne, who is a bit of a one-number type. I am a little confused by the recent turf races for Bold Journey, since he had just appeared to his his peak as a dirt horse when they made the switch. That said, he makes plenty of sense here.

I just thought #6 Scocciatore would be the right price in this spot. He got completely ignored in that optional claimer last time, but I thought he made a spectacular appearance in the paddock that day and he showed up with his best form on the racetrack. He was put in a tough spot chasing the fleet Rotknee, and did well to nearly hold on for second. I think it’s promising that Rudy doesn’t have him in for the tag this time. I don’t see a ton of speed in this race and he figures to get an aggressive ride from Saez. He has also put forth a monster effort at Saratoga in the past.

David's Analysis: 

#2 Luna Warrior looks good on speed figures as he makes his first start against winners. He actually ran pretty well last time, overcoming a slow start to break his maiden. I don’t think there’s much upside here, but I won’t be surprised when his form translates well to this spot even as he steps up against winners, and I also like less distance for him.

If you can look beyond this favorite, there are a lot of runners to consider, and a few of them will probably slip through the cracks at decent prices. I think we could see a better effort from #1 Kbcya Later, who never ran a fast fig as a 2-year-old but did win over this course and distance. He contested a fast pace two back at Kentucky Downs and then was overmatched last time. Joe Sharp is 14 for 43 (33%, $4.15 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs on turf over 5 years.

My top pick is #6 Carpe’s Dream. Perhaps this runner’s last race signals that he’s gone the wrong way, but I want to be somewhat forgiving. That was a tougher field and he just never looked comfortable in a race dominated towards the front. He really didn’t run that badly going a bit shorter two back, when he stayed on mildly for sixth at that same tougher level. He’s run plenty of races in the past that fit against this field, and he figures to be a square price even as he drops for these low-profile connections.

Mike's Response: 

I wanted one of the horses David highlighted above - #1 Kbcya Later - for all of the reasons he noted. I also thought that #4 Starrystarryknight could be used at a price as he drops back down in class for this. He has finished last in his first two starts this year, though one of those was on dirt. He actually ran pretty well up here three times last year, including that start at the end of the meet where he endured a tough trip.

Mike's Analysis: 

#2 Best Coast exits what appeared to be a much tougher race than this one going seven in her career debut, where she showed good speed but wound up chasing her favored stablemate from the outside, and ultimately weakened in the late stages. Based on what her experienced rivals had done before and/or after that race, the final figure for that affair might have come back a little light. She has speed from the rail as she drops in class for a trainer who has been spotting his horses well up here so far. 

I didn't like anyone else that much and will bet Best Coast at anything like her morning line price. 

David's Response: 

Mike’s pick makes plenty of sense and I have her as part of my mix. I really didn’t have a strong feel for this race, and defaulted to Linda Rice with #6 Party At Grants. I definitely prefer her of Linda’s two horses in here, and she has fantastic stats off the claim with maidens on dirt. She also exits a race from which the two horses who filled out the trifecta with her both returned to significantly improve in their next starts.

Though, this is a race that I am unlikely to bet.

David's Analysis: 

The presence of two fillies returning from significant layoffs adds a layer of uncertainty to this optional claimer. #2 Tizzy in the Sky and #4 Ontheonesandtwos both showed promise as younger horses, and must prove that they can recapture that form as they return for their 4-year-old campaigns. I prefer Ontheonesandtwos between that pair, since Norm Casse has pretty good stats with layoffs like this in a small sample. She only won one of her three appearances last year, but I thought she ran pretty well in all of those races, culminating with a powerful effort last June. She worked very well here from the gate on July 15, so she appears sharp for the return.

I just want to go in a different direction with a runner that has recency. #6 Sterling Silver just makes plenty of sense to me as she drops out of a couple of stakes into this open company spot. She won from a difficult position back in April, and I thought she stepped up her game against some solid rivals despite settling for minor awards in those last two starts. She never looked totally comfortable between and behind horses on the far turn of that Dancin Renee, but she rallied gamely once she found running room, just running out of ground. This 7 furlong distance is ideal, and it’s possible there could be some pace in this spot.

Mike's Response: 

Between the two fillies returning from layoffs, I went in the opposite direction and much preferred Tizzy in the Sky. That said, I went with #5 You Look Cold on top and want to bet her in this race. This filly ran well when properly spotted as a younger horse, and she has clearly improved since joining this barn earlier this year. She has to get seven here but is tactical and might be able to take one more step forward in this spot. 

Mike's Analysis: 

#11 Autumn took some money in her debut going six back at Aqueduct and she appeared to be ready to make a run in the stretch when she clipped heels while switching out to the clear and fell. Went seven last time and wound up contesting a fast pace before tiring. She didn't draw well for this race, but she has speed, is bred to stretch out, and might be better than she looks on paper. 

I still think #6 Starts Now has a chance to be okay and will use her, but I want to bet the #11.

David's Response: 

I don’t mind Autumn in this spot, and agree with Mike that she could appreciate this stretch-out in distance.

I took a different runner stretching out, as #7 Lady Laoban strikes me as one that should relish this longer trip. I understand why they sprinted her initially, since she’s a full-sister to Lisa’s Vision, who was initially best as a sprinter. However, it’s really more of a route family overall, and she visually looks like that should want to run longer distances. She was basically a first time starter last time after a disaster in her debut, and I thought she stayed on well in a decent race for the level. She seems like one that is still figuring out, and I’m expecting a move forward here.

I also have few knocks against #9 Splashy, who really seemed to improve on the turf last time. She was stalking an honest pace and had some trouble securing a clear path in upper stretch before staying on for second. I won’t be surprised if she gets a more aggressive ride to lead this time.

David's Analysis: 

The rumored “best horse” ever trained by Danny Gargan debuts here, as he has been touting #4 Dornoch since the start of the meet. This full-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Mage was entered as an MTO last week, and now gets into this scheduled dirt spot. Watching his workouts, I can see why they initially went the MTO route, as he looks like one that will ultimately want route distances. Having watching his workouts, I can’t say that I was overly impressed until the most recent gate drill on July 22. This horse isn’t the quickest in the early stages, but he sustained his speed beautifully through the second half of the work, pulling away from a stablemate with ease in fast time. He’s obviously a horse with some ability, but I’m not inclined to take a very short price on a firster for these connections.

I wasn’t thrilled with those who have experience in this spot. I suppose the one you would want is #8 Lambo, but I’m not sure how strong of a race he exits at Ellis Park. He was also getting out pretty badly on the turn that day, which is not a trait you want to see from a youngster.

I guessed with firster #6 Drum Roll Please. I’m hoping this one won’t attract as much support, even though he has a nice pedigree, by Hard Spun out of a good racemare who won on multiple surfaces. This horse worked in company with Dive Bomber, who attract some buzz when he debuted last week, and didn’t run that poorly despite finishing fifth. The last work matches recent Cox acquisition Mama’s Gold, a 3-year-old, and this barn doesn’t pair all of its youngsters with older horses in the morning.

Mike's Response: 

I'll be interested to see what Dornoch does in this spot, but I don't need first-time starters at short prices, especially over this kind of distance. In races like this, I want experienced horses whenever possible and Lambo, despite the modest debut, is the preference.  He didn't get out of the gate well in his debut, then looked green while chasing the experienced, front-running winner to no avail. Asmussen has been the dominant trainer of juveniles up here over the past several years, mostly due to having his firsters ready, but he used to be deadly with horses like this. 

Mike's Analysis: 

#5 Gunite is faster than ML favorite #4 Elite Power on the way into this Grade 1 sprint, though he was also faster when the two squared off overseas back in February and the figures didn't matter much that day. Based on the likely odds, I didn't view this race as being of interest from a wagering perspective, anyway, and put Elite Power on top. 

I will admit that I thought about taking a shot with #6 Dean Delivers, as I have liked his last two starts quite a bit, and it's not like I view either of the favorites as superstar sprinters. I could be tempted at a big price.

David's Response: 

I did think Elite Power really benefited from a torrid early pace when he won that race in Saudi Arabia, so I’m reluctant to just take that result at face value. I think these two are pretty close in terms of ability, and sided with #5 Gunite at a better price. Yet, like Mike, I didn’t view this as one of the appealing wagering races on this card.

David and Mike's Joint Pick-5

David and Mike put their heads together to come up with a late Pick-5 wager that incorporates both of their opinions. (Total wagers: $132)

A / B / C

R8:  4,5 / -- / --
R9:  3,11 / 10 / 2,4,5
R10:  1,5 / 3 / --
R11:  7,8 / 3,6 / 10
R12:  7,9 / 3 / 1

David's Analysis: 

The expected favorites in this allowance don’t do much for me. #5 Expand the Map did have a legitimate excuse last time, as she was affected by a spill that caused both Chad Brown runners in the race to basically be eased. That said, I didn’t love this filly’s prior form. She’s had her fair share of chances to to win races and has settled for second on too many occasions.

#4 No Show Sammy Jo will probably take money off a visually impressive maiden score, but I didn’t think she was beating much of a field that day. This filly arguably has the most upside of anyone in here and she drew well, but I thought there would be better value elsewhere. #10 Get Your Kicks is a similar type, having just broken her maiden two back. She faced a tougher field than this when she tried winners last time, but I was still hoping to see a little more out of her. Perhaps she’ll be capable of better following this freshening.

My top pick is #3 Bolivie. She didn’t get much of a speed figure for that third-place finish at Churchill, her only U.S. start on turf. However, that may have been a stronger race than it appears, as the winner came back to improve in her next start at Belmont. I thought Bolivie showed some likable attributes, weaving her way through traffic in the stretch. I don’t mind slightly less distance for her, and she drew well for connections that are off to a strong start at this meet.

Mike's Response: 

I thought there were more question marks than anything else in this field. One horse I felt like I had a pretty good grasp on was #11 Spungie, as her overall turf form is solid and she is fastest on the way into this, despite still being lightly raced. The layoff is a concern, as is the outside draw, but I thought that she would be hard on this field with her good race.  

I could stay positive on #10 Get Your Kicks at the ML price, but not shorter. She looked good winning her turf debut but, like David, I was underwhelmed with her effort last time.  

The wildcard is #2 You Gotta Have Fun, who is 2 for 2 on dirt vs. much weaker but has a huge turf pedigree and switches to Maker for this. 

Mike's Analysis: 

I like this Jim Dandy group, though we are stuck with another short field for a graded race on dirt in New York.  I'm happy to bet against #2 Forte here as the favorite, though I view him as the horse to beat. I could not talk myself into #4 Saudi Crown, though I recognize his talent and do think he could be dangerous as the main speed. 

The other short price on the ML is #5 Angel of Empire and, while I do think getting back to nine furlongs helps, I have never really liked this horse.  

The two horses I do like also happen to be the best prices on the line, and I still think #1 Disarm has a right to be at least as good as any of his rivals in this spot by the end of the year. Disarm had plenty working against him in the Derby after having to run in the Lexington (where he did not get a great trip or ride) just to make the field, then acquitted himself quite well once he got there. He took another step forward last time when gunning down a talented rival in the slop. He is not a slow horse early and I think he can improve again here at a fair price. 

David's Response: 

I want to play against #2 Forte at a short price in this Jim Dandy. The addition of blinkers bothers me with this horse. It’s rarely a good sign when connections do this, and I didn’t like how aggressive he appeared to be wearing those blinkers in his most recent workout. It also isn’t clear that he’s moved forward since his 2-year-old season, and there are others with upside in this field.

#4 Saudi Crown in some ways is the key to this race, because there is a real possibility that he’s the most naturally talented runner in this field. It is a big ask to stretch out to 9 furlongs against a group of this quality, but he does figure to have a pace advantage.

I made #5 Angel of Empire my top pick because he’s simply the runner that I trust most. His Derby performance has gotten knocked because he just followed winner Mage closing into a slow pace, but I thought he ran pretty well in that spot. He then didn’t get his preferred trip in the Belmont when the blinkers had him closer to the pace and Tapit Trice forced him to move too soon on the far turn while racing wide. I think he’s going to be suited by this turnback to 9 furlongs, and he should be able to go back to those sit-and-pounce tactics that worked so well in the Arkansas Derby.

I also don’t want to ignore the biggest price of the Cox trio, #3 Hit Show. He also didn’t get the most comfortable trip in the Belmont, and I thought he ran a better race than Disarm in the Derby despite finishing just behind that foe. He’s still a bit underrated and might the longest shot in this field.

David's Analysis: 

I’m not quite sure how the public is going to bet this race, since there’s no clear standout on paper. #9 Act of Congress might take some money off two consecutive victories, but I thought this was a significant step up in class, and she has to deal with some other speedy types.

Among the shorter prices, the one that I want most is #8 Busy Morning. Jorge Abreu does not have particularly strong numbers off layoffs like this, but I like the way this filly is training for her return. She’s looked pretty strong in the mornings, and I thought she showed ability last year before something clearly went awry in her season finale.

The other horse that I want to use at a bigger price is #6 Saratoga Chrome. I’m not totally convinced about the turnback, but this is a filly who can get pretty keyed up before her races, and sometimes less distance is better for those with hot temperaments. She’s supposed to get plenty of pace to close into this time, and this barn has sent out a few live runners at the meet. #3 Snowy Evening probably falls into a similar category, and she might be even more adaptable than Saratoga Chrome. However, she’s also going to be a shorter price off form that is more exposed.

Mike's Response: 

I want to bet #5 Fancypants Juliana in this race as she returns to turf. I thought her two starts on this surface as a 2yo were both pretty good, particularly that last one when shut off while trying to go with speed up the rail. The other horse for me is #7 Kerry, who ran fast enough to be competitive here when breaking her maiden first time on turf as a 2yo, and then faced stakes rivals in three of her next four starts. She even faced a stakes-quality turf sprinter when second at Tampa two starts back.

Mike's Analysis: 

I have nothing clever to say about this race, which didn't appear to draw a very strong field. I would be interested in #12 Heavenly Appointed should she manage to draw into this race, as she has shown some ability in her first two starts and is bred for more distance. In the main body of the field, #7 She's Mo Bubbly looks pretty solid based on her first two turf starts, particularly that last one over this distance. I like this spot for her, even as she is likely to go favored. 

#3 Tawaret has one gear, and that has made things hard on her recently when drawn outside and being forced to try to make her own trip. She will stay, and she should get the chance to save some ground while covered up in this spot as she breaks toward the inside. 

David's Response: 

I’m really looking forward to this race because I think there are a couple of intriguing alternatives to the favorites.

The horse that I’m most interested in is #9 Fizzy. This filly’s debut was orchestrated like it was a prep, or at least that’s how Irad Ortiz rode the race. This filly broke fine but got shuffled back on the backstretch and raced in traffic through the turn. Irad didn’t seem to show much urgency to get this filly into the clear in the stretch, but she started running when he finally got her to the outside. Yet the most interesting part of the race was after the wire, where he seemed to intentionally ride her out past the entire field to get more out of the race. She strikes me as one that will be suited by the stretch-out, and I like this switch to Flavien Prat, who seems more likely to make use of her early speed.

At a much bigger price, I also want to use #1 Southampton Rock somewhere. This filly has been placed in some perplexing spots, since her pedigree says she wants to run all day, but she was initially targeted at turf sprints. She’s obviously improved with any added ground she gets, even running fine going 10 furlongs on dirt last time. I think she’s better than her PPs suggest, and she gets a huge rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz.