David's Analysis: 

I don’t have strong feelings about this race and probably won’t get involved aside from kicking off the early Pick-5. #7 Noted appears to be the most likely winner based on her solid debut effort sprinting. The live firster might be #3 Fortune Seller, who goes out for Kevin Rice with Jose Ortiz aboard, the same combo that won a 2-year-old maiden race on grass at Belmont last month.

I guessed with a different first time starter, #1 Ask Isaac, who appeared to be moving well over turf in that July 7 drill, but it’s hard to gauge the quality of the company he was besting that day. Bill Mott can have one of these ready to run every so often.

Mike's Response: 

I prefer Noted stretching out. He is going to go favored here, as I believe he should, based on the useful debut going short. I didn't really want a firster in here and put #4 Noble Wave second. He debuted in the same race as Noted, and didn't do much running after getting to save a lot of ground. But he was outpaced in that race - which was won by his much more well-meant stablemate -  and is bred to really appreciate having more ground to work with.

Mike's Analysis: 

The Kentucky shippers demand attention in this $50k starter as the three fastest horses on the way in. I don't have a real argument against them, though I also wasn't totally convinced that one of them had to win this race. 

#4 Paddington is hard to gauge off the maiden win over this distance last time, as he was loose from the start and never faced a challenge at any point. He earned a solid figure for that race, has a strong pedigree, and is lightly-raced off the claim for Linda Rice, but it's not like he doesn't still have something to prove. Not exactly my kind of horse at 9/5, but probably the horse to beat.

I also like the recent form of #2 Deputy Connect; I'm just not sure that he gets better with this added distance.

I'll try #5 Ice Road as an alternative. This 4-year-old has only started on dirt four times, including a placing in a $400k race going long last year in Canada. He has shown handy speed in his first two NY starts, and I didn't think that dropping back a furlong in distance for that last one helped him at all. He stretches back out for this and should be a fair price. 

David's Response: 

I agree with Mike that #4 Paddington has a lot going for him in here, but it’s hard to totally trust that blowout victory at Ellis against weaker, especially given the way that track has been playing.

I almost picked #2 Deputy Connect, but had the same concern as Mike about the distance – I prefer this horse going a little shorter.

I put #6 Centavo on top because he’s going to be a generous price and his recent form makes him a contender here. This horse does look a little cheap compared to these, but he’s been an overachiever for this barn, and I actually think the added distance of this two-turn affair works for him. Naipaul Chatterpaul doesn’t win much, but his horses have been outrunning their odds for a while now. He’s also getting a big rider upgrade for this as Dylan Davis takes over.

David's Analysis: 

There are some intriguing new faces in this lineup, including expensive purchase #5 Healdsburg, who debuts over 2 years after she sold for $365k at auction. She has the pedigree to excel in this spot, but figures to be a short price for these connections and I prefer some runners with experience.

Both Christophe Clement runners intrigue me in this spot. #4 Voleuse hasn’t raced on turf since the summer of 2022, and now returns from a layoff. However, I actually like her getting back on this surface, since both of her prior turf efforts are better than they seem. However, she could be the shorter price of the Clement duo with Irad riding.

Perhaps some will jump off the bandwagon of #7 Strictly Taboo after she disappointed as the favorite last time. Yet a mile is probably just too far for this daughter of Astern, and I also wasn’t thrilled with the way Joel Rosario rode her either time that he was aboard. He seemed intent on ripping her off the pace, but she showed back on April 8 that she actually has much more tactical speed than that. I have to think Dylan Davis will be looking to get her move involved early, and I like the turnback. I could have gone either way between the two Clements and would let price make the final decision.

Mike's Response: 

I didn't like like Strictly Taboo as much as David and much prefer Voleuse in this spot. She has something to prove, but, like David, I think she might be better on this surface. More than anything else, this is not a strong field for the level.

I would be more open to a horse like Healdsburg for a different trainer. Out of this barn, she will not go overlooked, and it's not like Chad has great numbers with horses like this: 3-year-olds and up, first-time starter, turf, sprint: 4 for his last 26, 15%, $1.50 ROI, 0-6 in that sample at Saratoga, with only one hitting the board. I still have her second. 

Mike's Analysis: 

I picked #1 Chileno in this race, though I am not really interested in betting real money on him as the chalk. The questions surrounding this horse at a short price are pretty clear - switch to turf off the claim; return to dirt halved in price for the second start. His good race still makes him better than this field, and he has the early speed to be prominent from the break as he makes his second start for Linda Rice. I am reluctant to strongly endorse him, but I found no one else in this to get interested in. 

My alternative was #4 Break the Ice. He hasn't run a fast race yet, but he spent a lot of time on turf early on, and caught a sloppy track when back on dirt two back. I found it hard to knock his maiden win last month, as he sat a handy trip around the track and won easily with a new top figure. 

David's Response: 

The scratch of Chileno certainly opens this race up. I considered #6 Inspector, who gets class relief, but I can’t say that I really like any of his races, and it’s not like he’s going to be some great price.

#2 Yono looks slow based on his recent speed figures, but he ran some decent races over the winter at Turfway, and I’m not even convinced that he’s necessarily best on synthetic. I think it’s interesting that he’s claimed back by Jeff Hiles, for whom he ran some of his best races this winter. He’s been freshened and now steps up in class after staying on gamely in his last start. He’s going to be a decent price for an underrated trainer who is 7 for 26 ($4.16 ROI) off 60 to 120 day layoffs on dirt.

David's Analysis: 

#1 Undervalued Asset looks tough for this field to handle off her sprint form. She didn't get the best trip in the Davona Dale when she tried a mile two back, racing on a dead rail, but her surrounding form is strong. She was beaten by a good filly last time in Vahva and appears to be a legitimate favorite, but she's also a short price.

#6 Huntress for Hire will take money off a visually impressive maiden score at Churchill, but I thought she got a great trip that day in a race where the pace came apart. That said, she still ran a fast speed figure and won by open lengths, so she obviously has ability. I’m skeptical that the pace will be as fast this time, and it's not like she's that big of a price.

My top pick is #8 Zeitlos, who has the tactical speed to take advantage of the expected race flow. The only other horse in the field who appears to possess the speed to press her is Cupid’s Heart, and I like Zeitlos being positioned outside of that rival. This filly can be a step slow away from the gate, which has hampered her on occasion. Yet that doesn’t figure to be as much of an issue from the outside gate. She put in a very game performance behind the talented Scylla two back, and last time just did what was required to beat an overmatched field. This seems like a good spot to face winners.

Mike's Response: 

I don't think I'm quite as against Huntress for Hire as David seems to be, though I still wanted to try someone else in here. I saw the same things he did with Zeitlos and have little to add regarding that progressive-looking filly. 

My idea was to bet #3 Dear Lady cutting back off the layoff. This filly did not get a good trip in her debut over this distance, but was still racing on in the stretch while appearing green. She clearly benefitted from that effort when coming right back to roll over maidens in her next start, and she did not appear to relish the stretch out in her next two starts. She also was wide on a day when the rail might have been the place to be in that last one. 

Mike's Analysis: 

#3 Roses for Debra is favored moving up in class for the Grade 3 Caress, which is unlikely to surprise anyone who has seen her first two starts on the grass. There is some quality in this short field, but I am not interested in playing anyone else. 

#1 Out Flash Drive has won three straight graded races since cutting back in distance, including a Grade 2 on turf last time. She is dropping back a furlong for this, but owns the kind of easy speed from the gate that allows her to get early position. I have always preferred her going shorter but she is likely to get overlooked in this short field. 

It didn't appear that Rosario wanted #2 Bubble Rock on the lead last time, but she still would have benefitted from a more assertive ride in that spot once she wound up there. As it was, they waited too long while under a strong pull and got nailed by the likable #4 Poppy Flower.  She is very versatile, and should not be dismissed here, though it's not like she is going to be a price. 

David's Response:

Mike and I basically see eye-to-eye in this one. I have also been taken with #3 Roses for Debra’s recent efforts, and this feels like a race that might be open to a new face.

David's Analysis: 

This looks like your typical loaded Saturday 2-year-old maiden at Saratoga. There appears to be some talent in this field, and I’m interesting to see how it plays out. That’s not to say that I’m necessarily looking forward to betting this race beyond kicking off the late Pick-5.

I expect #5 Valentine Candy to attract plenty of attention off a quick gate drill last week. He looks like a win-early type for Steve Asmussen, who has great stats with these types at Saratoga. #6 Annointed might be the stronger of the two Pletcher runners, having bested #9 Protective in a recent workout, and he’s another who should possess plenty of speed.

I really liked the most recent workout of #3 General Partner, who got pretty strong racing in company with a workmate, always looking like he had more in the tank. He’s bred to be a precocious sort and Chad Brown typically sends out a handful of good ones at this meet.

My top pick is #8 World Fair, who might be the biggest price of those who appear to have a winning profile. This colt doesn’t have as regal a pedigree as some others, but Tapiture is an underrated debut sire, and both siblings won their debuts sprinting on dirt. He worked a flashy 9 4/5 at the OBS sale, and I really liked the way he moved through his solo July 17 drill over the main track. Ron Moquett has a $2.65 ROI with 2-year-old first time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years.

Mike's Response: 

This is an excellent race to watch for later, but I am unlikely to be wagering real money on it. I did think it was interesting that David and I have similar picks, considering all of the options available in what appears to be a loaded baby race.

David and Mike's Joint Late Pick-5

David and Mike put their heads together to come up with a late Pick-5 wager that incorporates both of their opinions. (Total: $112)

A / B / C
R7: 3,8 / 5,6,7 / 2,9
R8: 5,9 / 1 / 2,7
R9: 1 / 2 / --
R10: 6,8 / 1 / --
R11: 4,8 / 1 / 6,7

Mike's Analysis: 

I could have made cases for several runners in this entry-level allowance on the grass, though I did have a strong preference for the horses drawn more toward the inside. 

I won't argue too hard with the Chad Brown entry of #1 I'm Very Busy and the French import #1A Grand Giomar Step, as they both have something to recommend here. Whether you want to take a short price on them is your call. 

I want to take a shot with #5 Fearless Soldier for Pletcher. This colt got into a spot of early traffic in his turf debut two starts back, before finding a good trip and winning convincingly with a wide run off the turn. He wound up on the lead last time after a short layoff, and was still finding late after fighting off a couple of different challenges. Unfortunately for him, he was in against More Than Looks and had no chance to hold that rival off at the end. He faces no one of that quality in this spot and can make an impact at a fair price. 

David's Response:

I also felt that this entry might be overbet, though I do expect #1 I’m Very Busy to be tough for this field to overcome. He showed talent last year and appears to be training well for his return. However, he got an absolutely perfect trip when he won his debut last year, and his two subsequent starts were mildly disappointing.

As Mike noted, it’s easy to build a case for many runners in this field. I considered #7 Wico, who sustained a very wide trip in his last turf race. He looks like more of a synthetic type at first glance, but he might just be an improved horse as a 3-year-old.

I ultimately homed in on #9 Harrington for my top pick. This horse just looked a little green in his first couple of turf starts over the winter, but it’s not as if he ran that badly in either one. He returned from a layoff in June on synthetic, switching to a new barn. I also suspect that he was a new gelding that day, even though he’s listed as one today. He certainly seemed like a vastly improved horse, drawing off to win that race authoritatively in pretty fast time. That speed figure makes him a contender here if he can transfer it back to turf, which is no guarantee. However, he feels like one that will slip through the cracks, and be a very fair price.

David's Analysis: 

Among the three fillies who are likely to attract the most support, I much prefer #2 Wet Paint. She had a legitimate excuse when beaten by today’s rival Hoosier Philly last time at Ellis, since that course has been favoring speed and the pace of that race was glacial. She actually did quite well to chase that one home, and achieved the rare feat of getting assigned a higher TimeformUS Speed Figure than the winner for closing into a slow pace on dirt. She was a little disappointing in the Kentucky Oaks, but I also didn’t think she had as uncomplicated a trip as Gambling Girl, who got up for second that day.

Yet if I’m going to give a horse a second chance from the Oaks, I want it to be #1 Southlawn. She didn’t run well that day, but I still can’t figure out what her rider’s plan was going into the first turn. He seemed intent on drifting out into the clear rather than taking advantage of her good inside draw, and recklessly cut off another foe in the process. Perhaps that’s not a sufficient excuse for her performance, but I still think she ran well in her two prior starts at Fair Grounds. She’s had some time to regroup since then, and Norm Casse has continued to send out live runners all year. As the likely fourth choice, I’ll give her a chance to rebound.

Mike's Response: 

I agree with everything written above and am betting Southlawn in this race, win or lose.

Mike's Analysis: 

I struggled a bit with this race, though I was pretty quick to decide that I would be happy to try to beat #8 Accretive as the chalk. Not that he isn't the horse to beat here. 

I wound up taking the in-form #6 Daufuskie Island on top at a pretty stingy price. He has jumped up significantly in his recent starts and can easily wind up declining quickly, but it should be remembered that he actually started out with some promise before he briefly lost his way. 

He will attract plenty of attention based on his recent 102 Beyer win at Belmont, but he might have actually run a better race two back when unfazed by getting hooked into a fast duel from the start. 

I couldn't really fall for anyone else, though I have always been a fan of #7 Who Hoo Thats Me, and will use him somewhere. 

David's Response: 

Between the two favorites, I was a little more willing to believe in #8 Accretive, who showed real talent when he was unveiled last year, and seems to be training forwardly for his return. It’s a little hard for me to buy the sudden improvement for #6 Daufuskie Island, though Mike makes valid points about how well he ran last time. I just wonder if he might eventually come back down to Earth.

I wanted to get a little wacky here with #1 Bourbon Bash. I suppose this horse isn’t quite a turnback this time, since he cut back to a sprint last time. However, he didn’t have a fair chance in that spot. It was one of many races at Ellis that was dominated up front on a day when speed was especially dangerous (even gets the dark red color-coding in TimeformUS). Bourbon Bash actually made a mild move on the turn before flattening out. Prior to that, he was involved in a race that came apart while facing a strong field at Churchill. I still like this horse going a little shorter, and he showed some ability earlier in the year when racing over his head in some stakes at Oaklawn. There’s supposed to be some pace in here, and he should be picking up pieces late in a race where he’ll be a big price and I don’t fully trust the favorites.

David's Analysis: 

There’s a lot going on in this finale, so I didn’t want to just default to the Linda Rice entry, from which only one will participate with Jose Ortiz named on both runners. Whichever horse runs is likely to be overbet at this point given the run she’s been on. I would prefer #1A Flint Ridge, who looks like he’s being dropped to win off the claim. He had a legitimate excuse last time when cut off badly down the backstretch and he actually did well to nearly get up for second after that. Linda Rice is 12 for 27 (44%, $2.34 ROI) first off the claim with 50% dropdowns on dirt over 5 years. With his scratch, I would use #1 Catchyasoon, just to a lesser extent.

I just think there are a couple of interesting alternatives at bigger prices. My top pick is #4 Just Call Ray. This horse has primarily raced over route distances during his career, but he’s handled sprinting the few times that he’s tried it, including when he won a 7-furlong claiming event over the winter at Gulfstream. He showed some improvement this spring at Churchill racing against starter allowance company. Then last time at Ellis he had little chance when his rider rated him off a slow pace over a very speed-favoring surface. There’s plenty of speed in here to set up his late kick, and he goes out for a highly underrated trainer.

Mike's Response: 

I wouldn't argue too hard against anyone in this race, though, I must say, I did not like #6 Seven Nation Army's last race, and he could take money in here. 

The more I looked at this thing, the more I thought that #8 Digital Future made sense. And he should be a fair price in here. He can't go with allowance horses, but his form since being claimed has otherwise been pretty strong. He can also benefit from any pace that develops, as he did two back when winning for this tag, though he can adapt if the leaders are allowed to rate it early on.