Mike's Analysis: 

The opener is a MSW for 2-year-old colts and all eyes are likely to be on #1 Pirate, a half-brother to this year's Preakness winner, National Treasure. He is 4/5 on David's line and has pedigree and connections in his corner. He also appears to be training forwardly into his debut. Now he just needs to break running from the rail.

I was also interested in #4 Special Element, whose trainer, Bill Mott, continued his strong run with first-time starters when taking the opening day MSW for 2-year-olds. These connections paid up for Special Element after he breezed 10-flat April, and he also has an interesting pedigree behind him. His dam was a debut winner, and a stakes winner sprinting on dirt as a 2-year-old. She is out of a mare who is a sister to Grade 1 Vosburgh winner, Black Seventeen. Special Element is also a half-brother to a colt who went 2 for 2 as a juvenile, including a blowout debut win at a big price. 

This was an interesting race to handicap. I just don't know that it is a race that I want to get involved in at the windows. 

David's Response: 

The word is out that #1 Pirate is a good one, so I won’t be surprised when he wins this impressively. Mike and I just aren’t inclined to take very short prices on firsters, especially breaking from the rail.

I know very little about the horse I picked on top #5 Arteta. George Weaver hasn’t really had success with debut runners on dirt at this meet in recent years, but I like the short worktab for this debut, suggesting he came to hand quickly with some punchy drills. That seems like a good sign, and it’s also interesting that he reaches out to John Velazquez.

I also wouldn’t fall asleep on #3 Saisir Le Jour at a big price. This son of Arrogate worked well at the 2-year-old sale, and has some quick drills both at Parx and the private training center where these connections are based. It looks like he might have bested this barn’s Sanford runner in one of those Parx gate drills. He has a live look to him for a barn that can be sneaky at times.

David's Analysis: 

With so much early speed signed on, I suspect that #2 Sugar Gray Leonard might be a horse that many handicappers land on as the best closer in the field. He ran fine on dirt two back, but that was a sloppy track, and he strikes me as one that might have appreciated that going as more of a turf type.

I wanted to search for some better value towards the outside. #6 Iceatude is my top pick because he’s another closer in the field who figures to be a better price. He’s exiting some lower quality races, but I thought he stayed on very gamely last time in a speed-dominated race at Ellis Park. He gets a big trainer upgrade to David Jacobson off the claim. I just hope he doesn’t take too much Irad money.

#7 Charlie Five O is another I wanted to consider off the Rudy claim, but I know Mike likes him, so he can take it from here.

Mike's Response: 

Like David, I thought there would be some pace in here and did not want a short price on anyone, although I am a little afraid of #4 East Coast Girl, who is very fast.

Charlie Five O has races that would give him a real chance here and I was hoping that he could get back to that form in his first start off the claim for Rudy. He hasn't won a race since the end of 2021, but he earned a third straight 79 Beyer on dirt for that victory, after which he missed a lot of time. He has been racing for a low-percentage barn since returning from that long layoff, though he has still run pretty well at times. 

Mike's Analysis: 

This looks like a solid MSW for older filly and mare turf runners. I thought the horse to beat was #5 Vanished, who looks loose on the lead in this spot as she returns to the grass. She took a tough beat in her debut going a mile when forced along on a solid pace and spurting clear in the stretch, only to get nailed by a last-to-first winner. If she doesn't get pushed early she might be very hard to catch.

That said, there are too many interesting horses in this race to settle for the favorite. The two I settled on are the big-pedigreed #2 King's Secret and #7 Heavenly Appointed. King's Secret has questions to answer after failing to show up as the favorite when last seen - tough field or not. She might well have won her debut if not for getting shut off in the stretch, and I can give her a chance to rebound at a price in this race. 

Heavenly Appointed gained valuable experience in her lone start when exchanging several bumps in the stretch but still rallying for second behind a favored, front-running winner. She is bred to get better with time and distance and can improve quickly here with a better trip. 

David's Response: 

I wasn’t thrilled with #5 Vanished here. Aside from the winner Cecile, I really didn’t think there was much of quality in that Churchill maiden on turf. She’s fine, but I thought this was a pretty interesting race and she didn’t do much for me.

I think the horse to beat is #1 Isola. This filly debuted at one of the lesser French tracks, Fontainebleau, but it appears that she actually caught a decent rival in that spot. The winner of that race, the colt Bravais, won his next start before finishing third in a listed stakes, showing form that’s far superior to this field. And Isola didn’t just participate in that race. She made a strong move up the rail and kicked powerfully to take the lead before getting overhauled by the classy winner. Jack Sisterson has done well with foreign shippers in a small sample, and I get the sense this one might be pretty good.

David's Analysis: 

Perhaps I’m getting too cute taking a shot against #2 In Italian here. I don’t need to extol her virtues, and with Chad Brown sending out 4 of the 5 runners in this field, it seems likely that she’s going to get her preferred uncontested lead. That all makes her a very likely winner, but does she deserve to be 1-5 against a field of this quality? Perhaps, if no one else steps up. Yet I do think one of Chad’s other runners does still have plenty of upside.

#5 Whitebeam ran like a horse who needed her North American debut back at Aqueduct. She raced wide around the track and just couldn’t reel in a loose on the lead Evvie Jets over a mile. While the speed figure only improved marginally, I thought she took a big step forward at Pimlico last time. She settled well behind horses and exploded between runners when unleashed in upper stretch. That race has since been productive with a couple of next-out winners at the stakes level. Whitebeam obviously has to move forward again to beat this favorite, but the 9 furlongs should suit her and I expect the price to be fair.

Mike's Response: 

I won't try to beat In Italian in this race, despite the stingy odds. I don't see where the pace pressure is coming from in this field, and I don't see how they beat her if she gets loose.

Mike's Analysis: 

I thought #8 Mariachi was a legit chalk in this race and wasn't looking to stand against him. At the ML odds, I could try to get #3 On the Hill into the exacta, as he has races that give him a chance for a barn that points for this meet. #5 Agility is a contender but I've never liked him and will try to keep him out of the number as the second shortest price on the line.

David's Response: 

I’m on the same page as Mike here. That return from the layoff for #8 Mariachi had all the hallmarks of a prep race. He came in with a light worktab, was dead on the board, and Kimmel explicitly said he was barely ready. He seemed to really get something out of that race, and I expect him to move forward second of the break. This horse has real talent, and should prove too tough for this field if he shows up.

I like where Mike is going with #3 On the Hill as the other horse. I overlooked him a bit at first glance, but he had excuses prior to the layoff.

David's Analysis: 

I thought the horse to beat in this race was #10 Silver Skillet, who probably should have won her turf debut last time when weaving through traffic to just miss. That was going 7 furlongs, but she’s been effective going longer on dirt, so this stretch-out in distance shouldn’t bother her at all. I just wonder if they’ll adopt more aggressive tactics here, especially from this outside post.

I also think the filly to her inside, #9 Snowy Evening, makes plenty of sense. She put in a game effort going 9 furlongs last time, but that just feels too far for her. This cutback to a mile should really suit her, and I like the versatility to her running style. She’s just one that has improved with every start since getting back on turf.

Yet, if I’m going to strongly endorse a horse out of that June 25 race, it’s going to be #6 Sals Dream Girl. She finished a half-length behind Snowy Evening, but she was the only one doing significant running at the end of a race dominated up front. That’s twice in a row that she’s made strong but belated late runs in races were speed had the advantage. Given the size of this field, I’m hopeful that she’s finally going to get a better race flow. I don’t mind the slight turnback and she drew a better post than her main rivals.

I also wanted to consider #12 Sweetest Princess, who has gotten wide in trips in both turf starts this year. However, she drew outside once again and seems destined for a similar fate.

Mike's Response: 

I don't have a strong opinion in this race but want to give #7 Lady Jasmine one more chance here at a price. I'll admit that I'm just about ready to give up on her, but she has been out of position in every one of her turf races so far this year, including that last one when Prat pulled her back after failing to go aggressively and getting caught wide on the first turn. When she won here as a first-time starter last summer she was forward from the start and looked like she had some potential. She isn't overmatched here, and if she can get forward this time she can turn things around at a price.

Mike's Analysis: 

#1 Playlist disappointed in her debut over course and distance as a 2-year-old but she has improved through racing since then, and she certainly appeared to put it all together in that last one when conceding to the favorite early and then blasting that rival with a big run through the stretch. She is a 3-year-old facing older horses here but she can improve again, and she might be hard on this field if she does. Ultimately, there is no one else in this race that I am interested in so I will lean on her strongly in this spot.

David's Response: 

I generally agree with Mike’s assessment of #1 Playlist, and I do view her as the most likely winner. I certainly prefer her to the other likely short price #4 Breeze Easy, who did have a bit of a trip last time but is still unreliable on the win end.

Though, I do think this race is open to at least a couple of others. I didn’t put her on top, but I am a little afraid of #5 Lady Milagro wiring the field. She’s awfully fast and this apprentice utilizes her speed to maximum effect. The cutback is supposed to suit her and her best races put her in the mix.

My top pick is #3 Bowl of Cherries. She might look a little cheap or inferior on paper, and her turf form is somewhat obscured at this point. Yet she was once just as talented on turf as she is on dirt, and her most recent turf race from this past March isn’t a true indication of her ability since she got a poor trip that day. I really like the way she’s come to hand for David Jacobson in recent starts. I know she wasn’t facing much at Monmouth last time, but she absolutely destroyed that field with an impressive turn of foot off the turn. I like her getting back on this surface, and it’s usually a good sign when Irad rides for this barn.

David and Mike's Joint Pick-5

David and Mike put their heads together to come up with a Pick-5 wager that incorporates both of their opinions. (Total: $150)

A / B / C

R7: 1,3 / -- / 5
R8: 3,4,5,6 / 7,11 / 1,2,8,10
R9: 2,7,8 / -- / --
R10: 9 / -- / --
R11: 3,12 / 2,4,10 / --

David's Analysis: 

This race made my head spin. There’s very little compelling form among those with experience, so I understand the inclination is to guess with a first time starter. However, I get the sense a lot of people will be tempted to go that route given the complexion of this field. Among those firsters, #9 Neigh Jude definitely makes sense, having a nice pedigree for these conditions. I’d slightly prefer #6 Island Rose, who was a vet scratch from a race in June but had worked well into that start.

I don’t want most of the experienced runners who will take money. The one I trust the most is #11 Mim, who ran pretty well in a decent field for this level last time and has some upside second off the layoff. I wouldn’t discount her chances and could get interested if she’s around the 6-1 morning line.

Yet I think there are some bigger prices to consider. #3 Krystalheir is a horse that I’ve had some fondness for, and she has outrun her odds in every start of her career. She probably didn’t run quite as well as Foxy Cara last time, but I think she has more upside than that one. These connections have been based in Saratoga all summer, and I could see her taking a step forward here at a big price.

I made #4 Montauk Mystique my top pick because, appropriately, she still has some mystique to her and will be a generous price in here. This homebred felt like one who was just being given a tour of the track on debut. She was a bit sluggish early and never really asked for much over that sloppy surface. Yet she appeared to have some good size to her and I suspect there’s more to her than that result indicates. Mike Miceli is 4 for 31 ($2.66 ROI) with maiden second time starters on dirt over 5 years. She gets blinkers and a rider upgrade to Ricardo Santana.

Mike's Response: 

I prefer not to take first-time starters, but I think this is the right kind of field for a new face. Neigh Jude has the pedigree to be able to run a little and, if nothing else, she lands in the right kind of field should that be the case. I just haven't liked anything that I have seen from the experienced runners, though I have no argument with David's view of Montauk Mystique.

Mike's Analysis: 

I couldn't find the horse to bet against the two favorites with in the Kelso. #2 Annapolis seems the one to beat making his second start of the year. In the first, he overcame a modest pace to charge down stakes horses at Churchill. He did miss the Poker with a minor issue but he looks tough in here with his good race. 

#8 Casa Creed is better going shorter but it is hard to argue with his form going a mile on turf up here. He was defeated fair and square by Annapolis in a Grade 1 going this distance last October at Keeneland, but he is good and there is pace in here to set him up. 

I didn't love the Poker as a race overall but if I had to take a horse from that affair it would be #7 Anaconda.

David's Response: 

I slightly prefer #8 Casa Creed to #2 Annapolis, primarily because the former figures to be a better price. Annapolis has benefited from good trips, but might have another one coming to him here. I do think Casa Creed is a little underrated going this distance, but he still needs a setup to be successful.

My top pick is #7 Anaconda. I’m not totally convinced he’s good enough, but I do like the way he’s been subtly improving with each recent start. He was a little unlucky last time in the Poker, as he didn’t break well, got keen on the backstretch, and then had to alter course when searching for room in the lane. He needs to take another step forward, but he has a great running style for this race and figures to be a square price.

David's Analysis: 

I don’t have much to say about this race from a wagering standpoint. I’m not trying to beat #9 Gold Sweep. I could even argue that he’s a more likely winner than In Italian today because that foe is at least facing some quality competition. It’s just not clear that anyone else in this Sanford field is nearly in the same league as this precocious colt. It’s not just that his Tremont was fast. He would be heavily favored even based on his debut effort, which was an extremely live race out of which multiple runners have been successful.

Others do have some upside. #10 Market Street was green on debut and could run faster here. #3 Dickens comes out of a race that might have been decent for a barn that excels with 2-year-olds. I just couldn’t get excited enough about anyone else to invest in trying to overthrow this chalk.

Mike's Response: 

I have little to add regarding the favorite and expect him to be hard to beat. I also liked Market Street, and could add #6 Ramming Speed somewhere, as he has been quite the professional in his two starts and could not have won that last one any easier. 

Mike's Analysis: 

I suppose #2 Beer Run is the horse to beat in the finale, which shapes up as a relatively weak MSW for older horses sprinting on turf (at least in my opinion). I would use him but want to bet #3 Cigarette Boat at a price. Cigarette Boat is a bit of a guess switching to turf for the first time and coming off a disappointing effort when last seen at Keeneland. I thought he got the wrong ride in that race when trying to show speed, as his better dirt races came when rating and running. Prior to that, he tried the all-weather at Turfway and ran better than it looks while having to alter course in the stretch. He has a versatile pedigree and might be a nice fit here if he handles turf.

I will also use Cigarette Boat's stablemate, #10 Metallurgic, who has an interesting pedigree and appears to be training strongly toward his career debut for Maker. 

David's Response: 

Mike and I have similar ideas here. I’m not that afraid of #2 Beer Run, though I acknowledge he’s arguably the most likely winner. I suspect the turnback to 5 1/2 furlongs could help #4 Flat Top Box, who finished behind him last time, since he seems like a pure turf sprinter who wants to run as short as possible. He figures to be a better price and I won’t be surprised when he turns the tables.

Mike has highlighted a couple of interesting alternatives from the Maker barn, and I would use both but ultimately went in a different direction.

My top pick is #12 Baie Longue. Bill Mott doesn’t have great recent stats with this move, turning back on the turf, though he used to excel with these types a number of years ago. I thought this horse showed some talent as a 2-year-old, running deceptively well when last seen at Aqueduct in a race where the pace completely fell apart. He strikes me as one that will be suited to this turnback, and I imagine the price will be fair enough.