Mike's Analysis: 

I didn't see this race as a wagering opportunity. I picked #3 Innate, shipping over for an excellent trainer after running pretty well on debut in Ireland last month. There are some newcomers with pedigree - most notably #1 Aspenite and #6 Drilling for Gold - but not for trainers adept in situations like this. If I had to use a firster it would likely be #2 Le Gris and/or #5 Allied Attack, but I thought the experienced shipper would be tough in here as the chalk.

David's Response: 

With this race coming off the turf, the lone MTO entrant #9 Trade Imbalance will obviously attract a lot of support. He's actually been working pretty well for this debut, but it's still a big ask to win going a mile first time out. He's the most likely winner, but I wouldn't have much interest in betting him as a heavy favorite.

I'm going to keep the same horse that I had on top for turf. #2 Le Gris didn’t appear to be the quickest through the early stages of that July 30 gate drill, but I liked the way he finished up that move, like one that will stay the distance. His pedigree is pretty versatile, and I liked the way he got over the dirt well enough in that workout.

David's Analysis: 

I didn’t want to get heavily invested in the juvenile races that kick off this excellent card. Between the two first time starters that I suspect will take money, I much prefer #5 Domestic Product to #1 Be You. Domestic Product has impressed me in his morning training, doing everything with ease. His drills might not look as flashy as those of Be You on paper, but I suspect there’s some real talent here. The one drawback is that this barn does sometimes get overbet with firsters.

#3 Pentathlon feels like a horse that could pan out down the road, but Shug McGaughey often doesn’t have first time starters cranked up for their best as 2-year-olds at the Spa. He’s shown some ability in the morning, but still looks a bit green.

The runner with experience that I want most is #10 Uno Mas Bourbon, and I see Mike agrees, so I’ll let him expand upon that one. I also think it's important to point out that #11 Just Steel draws into the field. He ran pretty well last time behind the highly touted Pirate, and experience can go a long way in these races.

Mike's Response: 

I tend to default to experienced horses in these races whenever possible, especially at six furlongs & up. I'll happily use Domestic Product on David's say-so, but Uno Mas Bourbon is my top pick. This colt came out of the gate slowly in his debut to wind up last. I liked the way he progressed on his own power up the backstretch, before running up on horses and steadying again into the far turn. He recovered to make a brief rail run into the stretch and then tired in what appeared to be a useful experience first time out, and I'll take him to improve. 

Mike's Analysis: 

#8 Victorious Wave might own the best speed from his outside draw here, and he goes for a trainer who has quietly been on a strong run with his NYRA starters all year. He is supposed to be tough in here, but I want to take a shot with #3 Beachwalker, who went back-to-back over a 14-day span when finally cut back to this distance in May at Parx. He moved up in class for that last one and once again finished gamely after a wide run from last behind odds-on Ebben, who was taking his fifth straight in that spot. 

#6 Glory Road got wired when up in class over this distance two back, and he surrounded that effort with wins over six and eight furlongs. He also needs some pace, but he always shows up and he is a nice fit at this level. 

David's Response: 

I didn’t want to make a strong argument against #8 Victorious Wave. His pace advantage appears to be significant, and he’s drawn perfectly outside. I also thought he was hampered by a dead rail in his last start on this circuit on April 20, so his form might be even stronger than it looks. They entered him in an open N1X last week before opting for this spot instead, suggesting that he’s placed to win here.

I really couldn’t get excited about anyone else. #6 Glory Road always shows up with a solid effort, but he lacks any early speed and the layoff, followed by two vet scratches, since the claim by Rudy is a bit of a concern.

David's Analysis: 

This race loses most of its appeal coming off the turf. The two obvious players are MTO entrant #11 Zeebear, who has some distance questions to answer. Yet his best races make him awfully tough to beat against this field, and he strikes me as one that should have some versatility to stretch out. #7 Shared Success is the other one to consider. He's put forth some decent efforts going two turns at Finger Lakes against weaker competition. The others all look turf meant.

It's gone from a highly interesting turf race to a dirt race that I'll likely skip.

Mike's Response: 

I preferred Whistler's Honor in this race, for all of the reasons mentioned above. I thought Bricco might be a little cheap for this race but appreciate the case David made for him and will use him from the rail.

The other horse for me is #8 Born Dancer, who had a bit of a trip when trying a Stallion Series race up here last summer while still a maiden. I thought he earned that maiden victory last time while battling on the lead all the way, and this race did not come up that strong for the level. 

Mike's Analysis: 

It all depends on price in this open-looking entry-level allowance for state-breds, as I do think that there are several runners in here that might not be as good as they might look on paper. That all remains to be seen.  

Since #1 Quick to Accuse is 8/1 on the ML, I will stay on the positive side of him. He is well-bred, and obviously, the Remsen is not a race to hold against him, but I still found him tough to gauge off the lone win as he never faced a challenge that day in a spot where no one else in the field did any running. 

I get that #5 Safalow's Mission has already had his chances, but I still think he is pretty good and have always preferred him sprinting - despite the fact that his figures have improved in longer races recently. 

I went with a price in #10 Straight Arrow. This gelding did some running first time out while showing speed up the rail to contest the pace vs. open MSW rivals. They employed totally different tactics last time when rated back before making a strong, wide run around the turn, and he finished that race off well. He has some pedigree behind him and is a new gelding for his NY debut. 

David's Response: 

We’ll see what kind of price #1 Quick to Accuse goes off at, but I think he’s returning in the right kind of spot. This horse showed talent last year, particularly in that runner-up finish to Arctic Arrogance in the Sleepy Hollow where he chased outside and stayed on gamely. He’s right there from a speed figure standpoint with natural improvement from two to three, and I like the way he’s training for this. Horacio De Paz is 13 for 60 (22%, $2.23 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs over 5 years, and he’s 3 for 7 within that sample with horses getting first time Lasix.

I also thought #3 Two for Charging was likely to appreciate the turnback in distance and class relief that he gets. He ran his best races on the turnback last year at Saratoga, and is reunited with the winning pilot that was aboard that day. Even De Paz’s other runner #4 Golden Arm merits consideration at the right price. He was conservatively ridden at this level two back and still has some upside as he gets back on the right surface.

David's Analysis: 

Maybe it’s a fool’s errand to try and beat this current version of #4 Caravel, who has really taken her performances to the next level ever since winning last year’s Breeders’ Cup. Her best efforts make her too strong for this field, but we have seen her look vulnerable on some occasions, such as when she came off the layoff this year, and especially last summer at Saratoga. She might just be a different horse now, but she’s also going to be an extremely short price sprinting on turf where the margin for error is thin.

The only horse that I can reasonably make a case for as an alternative is #7 Nobals. He, too, appears to be in the best form of his career. He had a nightmare trip at Keeneland back in April, and has looked great in two starts since then. He didn’t get lucky to win that Turf Sprint at Churchill, running the other speeds off their feet before opening up impressively in mid-stretch. And then last time I thought he won with greater ease than the margin of victory would suggest. He’s drawn well outside and figures to get another aggressive ride from E. T. Baird. It won’t be easy to defeat Caravel, but Larry Rivelli is one of the best turf sprint trainers in the country and his horses generally show up when he targets an ambitious spot.

Mike's Response: 

David highlighted the main danger to Caravel in his write-up. I couldn't talk myself into playing against her, but might try to get #1 Thin White Duke in there with the favorite. He should have some pace in front of him here, and his best race gives him a chance at a price. 

Mike's Analysis: 

This a good field of stakes-quality turfers, but I am only interested in playing new face #6 Chazzesmee. Nothing went right for this early on while looking green and struggling to put races together. He bolted prior to the start of one of his early races, and was even gelded early on as his owner/trainer looked for answers. Based on his last three starts, it appears that the answers have been found. This horse sat in hand and quickened impressively when scoring his first victory over the all-weather in January. Switched to turf for his next start, he was equally impressive while winning under confident handling. He was up in class for that last one and ran very well again, and he might have been a lot closer to that front-running winner at the end if not for being caught in traffic in the straight. At the ML odds, I'll take my chances. 

David's Response: 

I found this race to be extremely interesting, and was tempted to build a case for multiple runners. My general feeling was that I didn’t want to settle for short prices, and the three drawn closest to the rail all seemed like potentially bad value.

I gave a long look to #4 Ocean Atlantique, who figures to get an aggressive ride on the cutback in distance. He had no chance in the Manhattan last time, and also appeared to want to run off with Luis Saez through the early stages of that race. He’s competitive here if able to get back to the form we saw from him in the Turf Classic, and he’s bounced back from poor efforts in the past.

I also think #7 Tiz the Bomb is interesting at a price. He probably should have won last time when getting caught in traffic in the final furlong. I don't think he was suited to those marathon races he contested prior to that, and he actually ran well after contesting a fast pace in the Elkhorn. He's getting back to the right distance and may be better than he looks.

My top pick is #5 Speaking Scout. This horse looked poised for a big 4-year-old campaign over the winter, winning the Hollywood Derby before finishing third in the Pegasus World Cup Turf. He’s disappointed since then, but I think he’s had legitimate excuses. He was always too far back against a tough field in the Maker’s Mark. He then hit his best stride too late when attempting to split horses late in the Dinner Party. And last time he was arguably best, getting sucked into making an early move by a rank Never Explain, and then getting hung wide by that foe. He actually stayed on well despite failing to change leads in the lane. Those were both stronger races than they even appeared at the time. I love this rider switch to Flavien Prat, and he’s getting appropriate class relief.

David's Analysis: 

This Grade 1 Test is technically on the Whitney undercard, but it might be the race I’m looking forward to most this day. Some of the Grade 1 races at this meet have come up a little thin in terms of quality and/or quantity, but this field does not disappoint.

I view division leader #1 Pretty Mischievous as the one to beat. She’s earned her two Grade 1 victories over route distances, but she had no trouble sprinting early in her career, and she strikes me as one with enough versatility to handle this turnback. She’s a handy traveler and she figures to get enough pace to close into. The rail draw probably isn’t ideal, but she just always shows up with a good effort.

Her main rival #8 Maple Leaf Mel has looked like a machine through her first 5 starts, each one looking like a carbon copy of the last, despite stepping up against progressively tougher company. This is by far her toughest assignment yet, but she drew a great post position. I am a little concerned that she’s never been headed in her career and hasn’t had a fight on her hands before, especially with so much other speed in the race. I wouldn’t want to bet her at a short price, but I respect her talent.

The horse that I’m against is #7 Munnys Gold. A horse with as much natural talent as she possesses was not supposed to lose the Eight Belles, the runbacks out of that race have been nothing short of abysmal (her Acorn fourth is one of the best). She didn’t get the distance last time, but I still would have liked to see her put up more of a fight. Todd Pletcher has terrible turnback stats, and I’ll let her beat me.

My top pick will probably be the biggest price of those exiting the Acorn. #6 Dorth Vader cuts back in distance from the same two races as Pretty Mischievous, but I think she’s even better suited to going shorter. She was a sprinter early in her career, and while she has improved over longer distances recently, I still prefer her over shorter trips. She took a big step forward in the George Weaver barn last time, and I loved the way she fought back all the way through the wire after getting passed. She figures to fly under the radar once again given the big names in here and I think she’s a serious threat to win.

Mike's Response: 

This is an excellent edition of the Grade 1 Test and I also thought that Pretty Mischievous was the filly to beat. I am not really against Maple Leaf Mel, though this is going to be a real challenge for her and I can try to beat her as a short price. 

I won't advocate too hard for my top pick, #2 Clearly Unhinged, though I will personally be betting her. This is a very tough race for Clearly Unhinged, but she has shown the ability to do things in her races that are not apparent on the page. Particularly in that win last time when refusing to concede to a Baffert favorite and then dueling that filly down well clear of the rest of that field. Whether any of that translates as she steps right into a Grade 1 might be another matter, but this is a pretty confident move by a very good trainer and it's not like I'm terrified of the favorites in here. 

David and Mike's Joint Late Pick-5

David and Mike put their heads together to come up with a late Pick-5 sequence that incorporates both of their opinions. (Total: $104)

A / B / C
R8:  1,6 / 2 / 8
R9:  4,6 / 1,2 / --
R10:  6 / -- / --
R11:  2,5 / 3,7,8,10 / --
R12:  2,5 / 1,12 / --

Mike's Analysis: 

#5 Far Bridge is the ML favorite looking to back up his Grade 1 Belmont Derby win last time. He is a good horse but it is not clear - at least in my opinion - that he is better than #6 Webslinger and I prefer the latter. 

I have also been impressed with the early form from #1 Mondego, though I don't think I would take the 5/1 ML price on him.

#2 Program Trading has a miler's pedigree, but he has looked awful good starting out 2 for 2 and he might have more talent than anyone in this field - if he can get the distance. I'll wait and see what kind of price he is. but I do want to use him.

I have no interest in European invader #8 Roaring Lion. 

The other invader is #4 The Franchise and he might be a lot better than he looks on paper. He is also my kind of horse at a big price on the line. We'll see if this winds up being too tough for him, though I doubt that The Franchise is in over his head in this race. This colt has pedigree, and he flashed potential on debut before failing to fire in his only other appearance as a juvenile. He has gotten better with every start so far this year, and he finally broke through with added distance last time. He had a good trip in that race, but he also lengthened impressively once he got a seam, and was staying strongly to the wire. It is also worth noting that his trainer upset this race two years ago with a similarly unexposed runner.  

David's Response: 

I wanted to focus on the Belmont Derby horses here. I tend to agree with the speed figures that suggest it was a very strong race, and the large gap behind the top four finishers only confirms that notion. Mike and I agree that #6 Webslinger is the one you want from that race. Whereas Far Bridge got a perfect trip and ride, saving all the ground, Webslinger was shuffled back early and then forced to make a wide rally around the field on the far turn. He arguably could have won with a different trip, and the price should be fair enough this time.

I also don’t want to discount #1 Mondego. He won’t be the 41-1 odds that he went off at last time, but he deserves credit for sticking around in a race where the pace otherwise fell apart. There doesn’t appear to be an abundance of speed in this field and he figures to get a good trip from the rail.

I don’t want to knock a price too much, but I took the opposite view of the two Euros. #4 The Franchise was getting 15 pounds from the superior third-place finisher last time, so I didn’t want to take that result at face value. The most interesting thing about him is that they’re even shipping here given his nondescript form. Then again, I had similar feelings about State of Rest, and Mike had a great opinion on that horse a couple of seasons ago and I respect his eye. As for the other Euro, I’ve been impressed by #8 Lion of War’s closing kick, but felt that his lack of early speed could be a liability here.

David's Analysis: 

It’s always a treat to see a good horse, and #6 Cody’s Wish is arguably the best horse in the country right now. Unfortunately, there were some significant defections from this Whitney in the days leading up to the draw, and it no longer shapes up as the true test of his ability to go longer. I’m not totally convinced that he’s going to be at his best over classic distances, but he was far superior to all of his main rivals in the Met Mile just a couple of months ago and I don’t believe one additional furlong is going to change that.

I’m not really viewing this as a race to bet. For those looking for action, I suppose #5 White Abarrio is the one I’d key underneath, since he did encounter some minor traffic in upper stretch of the Met and probably should have finished second that day.

Mike's Response: 

I have little to add to David's Whitney analysis, right down to the horse I want to use in exactas. 

Mike's Analysis: 

As discussed earIier, I had no real feel for the 5th and I looked at this race similarly. There are lightly-raced horses in here with solid figures, though I am not yet convinced that any of them are very good. That group is led by #7 Everso Mischievous, at least in my opinion, and he is a 2/1 favorite on David's line. We will find out more in this race, I suppose, but I'll try to beat him. 

I wanted to take #2 Signator on top here. I instead made #8 Bourbon Bash my top pick when my picks were due for print, but as we get further away from my deadline, I continue to think I should have just gone with Signator. I'll just spread a bit in multis and use him.

Since there will be no straight-up bets for me in this race I will hope that David has something interesting to say. 

David's Response: 

I also didn’t think #7 Everso Mischievous had to win this race. He’s obviously pretty good, but he’s lost twice at very short prices, and I don’t like that the blinkers are going on this time.

I agree with Mike that #2 Signator could pan out to be the best of this bunch, but I wondered if this was just a stepping stone for a horse that is bred to go longer, and looks like one that will ultimately be best around two turns. I’m a fan, but just didn’t want to take him at a short price in this spot.

I know #3 Brew Pub lacks the sexy profile of some others in here, but he makes a ton of sense and figures to be a generous price. I know he’s not really a winning type, but he’s been in great form since the claim by Rudy and should appreciate the slight turnback.

My top pick is #5 Frat Pack. I don’t see a ton of confirmed frontrunners in this field, and I suspect Flavien Prat will be aggressive again with this guy after he led from gate to wire last time. I know he was beating a pretty thin field that day, but his first time starting stablemate that finished second might be okay. He seems like one that is primed to fire his best shot right now, and he might not be that short of a price given the depth to this field.

David's Analysis: 

The eighth race on June 17 at Belmont is a key race to analyze with regard to its impact on this finale. Three players from that N1X allowance event return in this spot, including a horse who is likely to attract support off his trip that day. #1 Shutters was obviously unlucky, getting into trouble at multiple points in a race where he arguably could have challenged the winner with a clean trip. He didn’t break well and proceeded to get keen while advancing in traffic down the backstretch. However, the most impactful moment came in the stretch when the eventual winner kept him hemmed in and he was forced to steady in traffic late. If he can run back to that level this time, he’s a player. Yet I’m more interested in another runner from that race.  

#2 Danzigwiththestars might have gotten the worst trip of all, though it was a more subtle bad trip than that of Shutters. He was off a step slowly from the rail and was last heading down the backstretch behind a slow first quarter. He then launched an early move into contention on the far turn, but was forced to go four wide while making his run. He got spun even wider into the stretch, but still stayed on gamely to lose by just more than two lengths. He returned from a lengthy layoff two starts back, and he has been a horse who takes a while to race himself into fitness in the past. He appeared to benefit from that demanding 11-furlong race two back, and now he should be set for an even better effort third off the layoff. He drew well once again and gets reunited with Luis Saez, who rode him to victory here last summer.

The other horse that I want to use prominently is #12 Beuys. He didn’t draw nearly as well as the aforementioned pair, but I thought he showed some ability for Chad Brown over the winter at Gulfstream. He got a tough trip last time behind future Grade 1 winner Up to the Mark, getting spun wide into the clubhouse turn before running on well at the end. He appears to fit well here making his first start off the purchase and trainer change to Brendan Walsh.

Mike's Response: 

This looks like a strong race for the level to close out the card. My idea was to bet #5 What Say Thee at anything like his ML odds. This horse ran an underrated race first back from a long layoff going a mile last September, and I'm not sure that he was done any favors by being entered in much longer races in his subsequent turf starts. He went seven after another short break last time and I thought he ran pretty well there while carrying along run to contention before tiring.  This looks like a perfect distance for him and he is going to be price in here.