Mike's Analysis: 

Three of these colts exit the sixth race from 8/10, which was won by the experienced Le Dom Bro. #8 Walstib took some money in that spot, and then ran a winning race while engaging in a long battle - and a lot of bumping - with that winner through the stretch. He ultimately settled for second-best, but he can put that experience, and that speed, to use here for a trainer who is 3 for his last 3 with 2-year-old second-time starters going seven furlongs on dirt at Saratoga ($8.33 ROI). 

I expect him to be tough, but I want to bet another horse out of that race. #3 Secret Lover had real trouble at the start that day when bumped hard at the break and then crashed from both sides shortly thereafter to wind up last. He actually ran well to make up late ground and get into fourth at the end in a race that was won by his experienced stablemate. It is also worth noting that his trainer's numbers improve significantly after a race. 

David's Response: 

I have nothing to add. We’re in total agreement here.

David's Analysis: 

With this race coming off the turf, the MTO entrants look like the right ones. The horse to beat is now Golden Arm (#12), who dueled for the lead going 7 furlongs last time before backing up. That was a tougher field than this, and he figures to appreciate the cutback in distance. At a slightly better price, I could use High Tone (#13), who may get somewhat overlooked coming in from Finger Lakes. He ran pretty well against a decent claiming field two back, never on the rail in a race dominated by an inside winner. He's run plenty of races at this distance that would make him tough to beat.

Mike's Response: 

I don't love City Mischief but expect him to be tough based on overall form. The horse I really wanted to bet was #1A Image of Quality, but he is coupled with City Mischief and offers no value. If I play against the favorite it will be with #5 Kreesa, who has run well in both prior starts over course and distance and still has some upside. 

Mike's Analysis: 

#2 St. Elmo will have to improve in this spot while facing older horses again right off the maiden win, but he is the horse I want to bet here at a price. This lightly-raced colt made a sharp belated run in his dirt debut going six furlongs off the layoff at Keeneland, then didn't get a particularly good trip in his next start, though he also made a run into that race. He stretched out effectively last time while finding improved speed, and he has some pedigree behind him for an excellent trainer. It's not like the shorter prices in this race are super scary, especially at this distance. 

David's Response: 

I saw all the same things as Mike with #2 St. Elmo. I’m probably not quite as convinced he’s as talented as some others in here since he beat a bad field last time, but he does have upside and it’s not like others are so trustworthy. #4 Mistical Curlin looks like a serious threat to wire the field, at least on paper, but he’s awfully fainthearted. I was mildly interested in Watasha, but he has been scratched, so I land on the same horse as Mike.

David's Analysis: 

I really struggled with this race, since no one is particularly trustworthy. #1 Scocciatore is arguably the one to beat off his victory at this level in late July, but I liked him that day at 5-1 and he could be a shorter price here against a deeper field. 

There isn’t a great deal of speed in this race, at least on paper, so that figures to help a horse like #8 Sky and Sand. He’s stepping up in class after beating weaker claiming foes last time, but that victory was pretty impressive. He has some dirt races from earlier in his career to back it up, but he does have to hold his form off the claim for a barn that has been pretty cold at the meet.

I put #9 Bold Journey on top without much conviction. I just felt that he might finally be a fair price off his dismal performance last time. He broke a bit slowly and was just never really engaged that day, not helped by his jockey steering back down inside in the stretch. Now Rosario gets back aboard, and he had this horse more forward in the lone prior time he rode him. I’m hoping he can bounce back with one of his better efforts.

Mike's Response: 

I like Sky and Sand here and didn't really want to concern myself with the slow meet Diodoro has had up to this point. David's top pick was my other horse. 

Mike's Analysis: 

#6 Nobel is the wildcard in this race making his stateside debut following a decent effort at York last month. I didn't have strong feelings about him either way so will let David make the case for him. 

I am a #2 Catch That Party fan and am not against him here despite the move-up in class. This guy has been in excellent form since claimed out of a sharp win early last year by Maker and has handled steadily moving up in class along with taking on added distance. I'm using him, but thought #1 Dynadrive was a fair price on the line and made him my top pick. This horse pulled off two upsets immediately upon switching to this trainer last summer (he took advantage of a fast pace when winning the Lure here with a career-best 97 Beyer) and has raced in nothing but graded races since. I wouldn't bet him at anything less than 4/1 but he makes plenty of sense in this race. 

I have liked #7 James Aloysius from the start but he didn't appear to have much of an excuse last time and he is a short price on the line.

David's Response: 

For me, this is a bit of a process of elimination pick. #2 Catch That Party’s lack of speed is a concern for me, especially in this paceless race, and the same can be said of #1 Dynadrive, even as he gets class relief.

As for #6 Nobel, he was once cut out to be a good horse but had trouble gaining any momentum with two lengthy layoffs derailing the start of his career. I really liked his effort over the all-weather surface two back. According to the Timeform Notes available in TimeformUS, he had a breathing operation just prior to that win. It was then encouraging to see him basically hold that form against a much tougher field last time back on turf. I thought he did quite a bit of running there, making an early move to the lead and battling on gamely in a race that turned into a real test of stamina. Brendan Walsh has solid stats with foreign shippers, though this horse obviously hasn’t spent very long in his barn. And best of all, he has plenty of tactical speed so he should get the right trip if he breaks cleanly.

David's Analysis: 

There’s a lot of guesswork to be done in this 2-year-old maiden event, and I’m glad it’s not part of any of the late Pick-5 sequences because I could see it going many ways.

#2 Colonial Rose is perhaps the horse to beat off her runner-up finish on debut. That felt like a decent race and she ran professionally while no match for the winner. I could see her taking a step forward here, but I also won’t be surprised when she’s beaten by a couple of well-meant firsters.

Sorting out which of the debuters is ready to fire is no easy task. I did really like the one glimpse that I got of #9 Just F Y I, who looks like a well-developed daughter of Justify with a lovely stride. Yet based on pedigree, she might want longer or turf down the line.

I don’t mind the way #6 Cowgirl Charm has trained for Todd Pletcher. Those two consecutive gate drills leading into a debut is usually a good sign for this barn, and she has some pedigree, out of a dam who is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Cupid.

I put #8 Here’syourtrouble on top, thinking she’d be a rare Chad Brown firster who goes off at a square price. She looked very quick in her 10-flat OBS April drill. It doesn’t look like she’s been asked for anything close to her best in her training for this, but that could be a good sign. She always appeared to have more in the tank in her last drill in company with Right to Vote, who had trained nicely all summer. I get the sense there’s some ability here, and I doubt she’s overly touted.

Mike's Response: 

I generally lean toward horses with experience in these races, but I didn't think Colonial Rose's debut was particularly compelling. I actually preferred the debut from Antenna at Monmouth and would rather use her. I guessed with #4 Shop Lifting, who is bred for an underrated trainer and appears to be training well, though I almost never bet much on horses/races like this. 

Mike's Analysis: 

I didn't view the Grade 1 Forego as a race to wager on, though I am interested to see round three of #2 Gunite vs. #3 Elite Power. So far it's been all the latter, who might have just produced the best race of his career when gunning down Gunite in the Vanderbilt. Gunite might be the controlling speed this time and that could swing things in his favor, but I still think Elite Power is the better horse. 

David's Response: 

I echo all of the above.

David's Analysis: 

This felt like another wide open race. It should be noted that AE #13 Souper Quest draws into the field. This colt showed some real ability on debut and looked even better off the layoff last time, setting a taxing pace before just getting nailed on the wire by Sosua Summer, who returned to win again against tougher earlier this week. However, he has to overcome the outside post with plenty of other speed signed on.

#12 Southern Horse is also drawn outside, but at least he can drop back and get over as a closing type. He was generally a cut below the competition at this level when he was competing in California, but his speed figures stack up very well against this field. David Jacobson has done well with private acquisitions like this, and he usually means well when reaching out to Irad.

I considered #8 Detroit City at a big price. He had trouble getting out of the gate last time, and was always out of position, but he had run well enough to be competitive here in some prior starts on both turf and synthetic. However, he has been a vet scratch recently, and was entered for $35k earlier at the meet, so there are definitely some questions.

I put #2 Monet Never on top. This horse reportedly had a legitimate excuse when he lost at Keeneland two back, coming out of that race with a minor injury. He got back on track last time, slicing through the pack to just get up for the victory going this distance. He’s a little light on speed figures compared to others in here, but the second and third place finishers from that last race both returned to improve in their next starts. He’s drawn well and should work out a good trip if using the same running style as last time.

Yet this is a spread race and I could make cases for many horses. Even a wildcard like #10 Extendo is mildly interesting getting back to turf as the potential speed of the speed.

Mike's Response: 

I had no strong opinion in this race and am unlikely to get involved.

David and Mike's Joint Pick-5

David and Mike put their heads together to come up with a mandatory payout Pick-5 that incorporates both of their opinions (Total wagers: $210)

A / B / C
R8:  2,12,13 / -- / 4,5,6,8,10
R9:  3,4 / -- / 6
R10:  6,7 / -- / 8
R11:  3,4,7 / -- / 1,5
R12:  3,6 / -- / 1,2,4

Mike's Analysis: 

The two colts on the outside exit very fast wins and are obviously dangerous in this strong running of the Grade 1 Jerkens. As far as betting the race goes, I was torn between #3 Verifying and #4 Fort Bragg. I went with Verifying as he cuts back to sprint for the first time since winning his debut here as a 2-year-old. I actually think shorter is better for this horse, and don't mind him landing in a race with a quick pace in front of him - though I will just note that I only want him on a fast track. 

David's Response: 

I am usually trying to build a case for turnbacks like #3 Verifying. I’ve just never really been able to warm up to this horse. He only runs well when he gets perfect trips in favorable pace setups. Plus, this is not a typical move for Brad Cox. Somewhat shockingly, Cox is just 1 for 22 (5%, $0.45 ROI) with route to sprint turnbacks in dirt stakes over the past 5 years.

#5 New York Thunder hit Saratoga like a lightning bolt in the Amsterdam, but I need to see him do it again before I place faith in him in a spot like this. He ran that field off its feet, but he wasn’t facing the likes of the Bob Baffert duo he encounters here. Furthermore, I’m a little concerned he’s going to have some reaction to that effort coming back in 4 weeks after requiring so much time between his prior starts. The horse to upgrade out of the Amsterdam might be #1 Drew's Gold. He was no match for the winner that day, but he's pretty good and figures to get overlooked here.

Narrowing it down to the two Bob Baffert trainees, it’s pretty easy for me to choose #4 Fort Bragg over #6 Arabian Lion at similar prices. I admit that the latter is better than I’ve given him credit for, but this shapes up as a tougher race than the Woody Stephens, and I don’t quite buy the flashy speed figure that race received anyway.

Fort Bragg seems like he’s really turned the corner this summer after lacking some focus early in his career. He outdueled a serious horse in the Dwyer last time, and I actually like him going a bit shorter. In my view, he’s the most likely winner of this race and I’d be thrilled if the public didn’t make him the favorite.

David's Analysis: 

I found it hard to look beyond the favorites in this Ballerina. #6 Echo Zulu might go favored this time off her smashing victory in the Honorable Miss, for which she earned some lofty speed figures – a 112 Beyer and 133 TimeformUS. A repeat of that performance would make her tough to beat in this spot, but I always want to proceed with some caution with these horses coming off career-best efforts that are so far out of step with anything they’ve produced previously. It’s possible that she’s just suddenly elevated her game to the next level and will maintain this form, but I think it’s more likely that she regresses to some extent.

That said, Echo Zulu could regress and still win this race, especially having an expected pace advantage as the lone frontrunner in the field. However, she’s going to be a short price based on all of that, and I don’t think she’s yet proven that she merits favoritism over last year’s champion.

I can’t say that I’ve ever been #7 Goodnight Olive’s biggest fan, but I’ve grown to respect her consistency and versatility. Recently Irad has seemed happy to drag her off the pace from inside post positions, but this time he’s supposed to go forward and take up a stalking position just outside Echo Zulu. This mare has quite a turn of foot when she’s given a clear run, and I doubt she’ll let Echo Zulu scoot away as easily as she did last time. At similar prices, I’d rather lean on Goodnight Olive.

I certainly considered others. I’ve become a fan of #5 Wicked Halo, who always tries hard. It just seems like a tall order for any of the others to usurp both favorites.

Mike's Response: 

This is an interesting matchup between the two favorites, but not a race to get excited about from a wagering perspective - unless you have an idea against them.  Personally, I thought Echo Zulu ran at least as well as Goodnight Olive did at last year's Breeders' Cup and was done in by a silly ride. I prefer the 6, but won't be surprised when the 7 makes this hard on her. 

Mike's Analysis: 

I thought this race was mostly about #7 Stone Age, though there is nothing I can really do with him at a short price. There wasn't an alternative that interested me. I actually thought this horse ran well without getting great trips in either of the 3-year-old stakes he shipped over for last summer. He was given a great trip but still ran well when second at the Breeders' Cup at the end of the year, and he has yet to really get started as a 4yo. He is with Chad Brown now and might be set for a strong back half of 2023 considering the state of this division. 

I am a fan of #5 Pioneering Spirit, but he probably should have run in the John's Call on Wednesday. 

David's Response: 

Mike and I are on totally different pages here. I think #7 Stone Age is a great horse to bet against at a short price. Chad Brown has been pretty up front about the fact that he doesn’t have this horse quite fit yet. And aren’t we a little concerned about his two races after the Breeders’ Cup last year? He was dreadful when last seen in Doha, and now he shows up in a new barn. For what it’s worth, Chad Brown is 0 for 7 with foreign shippers in Grade 1 races. The sample size in that stat is more meaningful than the lack of success. This just isn’t something he looks to do with this horses.

Among the foreign shippers, I actually prefer #3 Bolshoi Ballet at a better price. Perhaps 12 furlongs is stretching him a bit, but his 3-year-old form in the U.S. stacks up pretty well against what Stone Age produced in this country. He also has run better than it appears in a few starts this year, particularly that gutsy performance in the Al Rayyan when finishing ahead of BC Turf winner Yibir.

Oddly, the Bowling Green didn’t come up as a significantly weaker race than this Sword Dancer, so I want to strongly consider the runners out of that local prep. #6 Channel Maker is a last time was the time type, but nevertheless easy to root for. #1 Soldier Rising did have a legitimate excuse, taking a hard bump from the riderless Rebel’s Romance. I thought about picking him, but he’s just not a winning type and I prefer him going a little shorter.

Watching back the Bowling Green, I didn’t immediately appreciate how well #4 Daunt ran at a huge price. This horse was legitimately 3-wide around every turn, racing without cover for most of his journey. He was still in the mix in upper stretch before tiring a bit, but was hardly disgraced. He finished right alongside Tawny Port, who came back to win the John’s Call, and I thought Daunt ran better than that foe. This 4-year-old has been steadily improving all the time, and he figures to get totally overlooked in this spot. These connections did win this race in consecutive years with Grand Couturier once upon a time.

David's Analysis: 

This Travers has everything. Not only does it hold significant divisional implications, bringing together the winners of all 3 Triple Crown events plus last year’s 2-year-old champion – it’s also a really fun race to handicap, with many possible ways to go.

There’s no denying that #1 Forte is the horse to beat. This gritty colt just always shows up, and appears to have finally taken some steps forward off his form from last year. Any early season concerns about added distance for him were allayed in the Belmont Stakes. Pletcher added the blinkers last time and they had the desired effect, as he was noticeably more engaged through the second half of that race. That said, I still don’t view him as having some significant edge in ability over some others in this field, and he’s going to be a very short price. He’s the most likely winner, narrowly ­– but I don’t expect him to offer sufficient value.

I really don’t have any knocks against #2 Arcangelo. I’ve been impressed with his steady progression from race to race and I’m really not that concerned about the layoff. I just feel like I missed the opportunity to cash with him, as he was a fair price in the Belmont Stakes, and now he’s totally exposed. I expect him to run well, but I don’t really want to bet him at around my morning line odds.

Of the Triple Crown race winners, I’m most intrigued by #4 Mage. Sure, he got a great setup in the Kentucky Derby, but he still ran an awesome race to get the job done. I won’t hold the Preakness against him given the quick turnaround and unfavorable race flow, and his connections were pretty explicit that they were using the Haskell as a prep. I actually liked his effort, and get the sense that Haskell was a stronger race overall than the Jim Dandy. It feels like Delgado has tightened the screws now, and I don’t want to underestimate this often underrated colt.

As for the bigger prices, I personally have little interest in the speeds, #5 National Treasure and #7 Scotland. And I don’t really get #6 Disarm, never have. Maybe he keeps improving steadily like his sire, but I haven’t seen the latent potential in his recent starts.

And what about #3 Tapit Trice? I haven’t been among this horse’s devotees – I was actually against him through the Triple Crown races when all that hype hit its peak. Now most of his fans have jumped off the bandwagon, so he’s finally going to be a far more palatable price.

Tapit Trice’s Derby was bad – that race was always going to be a struggle for a horse like this. Yet the Belmont is a different story. I don’t think he gets the credit he deserves for that performance, and would go so far as to say he ran the best race. Luis Saez launched an ill-advised premature move about 5 furlongs from the wire, going wide all the way around the turn. He lost focus late, but was still running through the wire. His Haskell looks terrible on paper, but he got another questionable ride in that spot. Saez hustled him into traffic and then rode him down to the rail to track two longshots who predictably backed up in his face. Saez is a good rider, but it just hasn’t been working with this particular horse. Now we switch to Jose Ortiz, whose style couldn’t be more different, and the addition of blinkers is probably long overdue. This horse needs to focus and time his move better. The ability is there – we saw it in the Belmont – he just has to put it all together. I’ll take my chances it happens here at a price.

Mike's Response: 

The Travers was fun to handicap, mostly because it is a race where you can make a case for any of the seven entered without trying too hard - not that you won't get yourself into trouble in doing so. I think the winner is pretty likely to come from the inside two post positions, but I am not betting the race that way. I am more positive on Disarm than David is and will bet him here at anywhere near the 8/1 ML. He still has something to prove but I think he still has room to move forward, and I am not one who believes that the wet tracks he has encountered recently helped him at all. He needs a trip but I don't think he is in over his head vs. these horses.

Mike's Analysis: 

Chad's entry makes sense in the finale, though it's not like they stand out over some of the others. I like the two horses drawn to the inside, and prefer #2 Fly Right as he gets back to turf and draws the rail. He has settled for second or third in all four prior MSW starts on this surface, where it seemed circumstance rather than any character flaw made the difference. He went a very fast pace and did well to last for second when stretched out to ten furlongs two back. 

I was also interested in #3 Conversing off the layoff but I know David has him on top so he can take it from here. 

David's Response: 

I have little to add regarding the logical favorites, who I am not really against.

As for #3 Conversing, I thought this horse really took to turf well on debut last summer. He did get a great trip in that race, saving ground during a time when the rail was an advantage. Yet he was still a bit green and finished strongly once straightened up. I like the way he’s trained for his return, and Shug McGaughey is a solid 16 for 60 (27%, $2.35 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs in turf routes over the past 5 years. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s drawn well towards the inside.