David's Analysis: 

This isn’t a race in which I have that much wagering interest, rather more intrigued to see how it plays with regard to implications moving forward.

At this point in the season, I want give more preference to first time starters, so I’m not going to pick a horse like #7 Special Element. He ran fine on debut, but those maiden events early in the season generally come up a bit thinner than those in the second half of the meet. Among the second time starters, I’m actually more interested in #5 World Fair, who just seemed uncomfortable with the blistering early pace of that July 22 maiden event. This horse had worked well at the sale and in his training up to that debut, and might be worth one more shot at a price.

Yet I did lean towards a firster. #1 Risk It is obviously dangerous for Steve Asmussen, who has solid stats with these types. Gun Runner is an excellent debut sire, and this colt worked in company with Informed Patriot (4th on debut last Saturday, 68 Beyer) in that Aug. 2 drill.

Mike's Response: 

Like David, I didn't see much of interest here from a wagering perspective, though there are some very well-bred colts in this field. I am happy to sit this one out while taking notes for later.

David's Analysis: 

With this race coming off the turf, it might actually get a little easier to decipher. I'm a bigger fan of #1 Houlton on the dirt. As Mike noted, this horse had legitimate excuses in his debut and was still running on decently at the end. He's bred to get the extra ground and should be more professional this time. #3 Divine Empire is appealing out of the same race for similar reasons, but I'm a bigger believer in the former. I would also use #5 Dancing Groom, who was staying on mildly at the end of that July 22 race won by Valentine Candy. I think that heat might be stronger than the speed figure indicates, and he is supposed to improve with added ground.

David's Analysis: 

I’ll be interested to see if #1 My Sweet Affair actually runs in this spot after competing in the Galway just 7 days ago. I didn’t like her effort much in that spot and have some doubts about her even if she does participate.

#6 Shootoutthelights figures to vie for favoritism as she goes out for popular connections. She looked good on debut, but I’m never sure how much stock to put in those Gulfstream turf sprints. I haven’t been thrilled with the way Irad Ortiz has ridden her in the last couple of starts. She seems like one that wants to go to the front, but he’s been intent on rating her, something he often does with speed horses. I think turning back slightly will help her, but I have trouble trusting her delivering at a short price.

I’m more interested in a couple fillies that ran up here as 2-year-olds last summer. I’m not sure why #7 Dontlookbackatall has done everything except sprint on turf so far this year. She obviously showed ability as a turf sprinter during her 2-year-old season, and I like her getting back into this kind of spot. It’s not as if she’s even run that badly in those recent experiments.

I put #2 Georgees Spirit on top as another filly who broke her maiden up here last summer. I liked her 3-year-old debut in April, where she never had great position, too far back early before launching a wide bid around the far turn in a race dominated by rail runners. She now gets a significant rider upgrade to Flavien Prat and Lasix for the first time. She will be tough on this field with any kind of routine improvement.

The wild card in the race is #8 You Gotta Have Fun. She’s run slow in both prior starts, but is bred to love the turf and has run like one that will take to this surface. It’s just hard to know how good she is, but she does figure to be a price.

Mike's Response: 

I viewed Shootoutthelights similarly as far as tactics are concerned. I have no idea why Irad has been rating her recently, but he is not supposed to be taking any prisoners in this spot.  I preferred her and viewed the other contenders almost exactly as laid out above. 

Mike's Analysis: 

The only horses I want to use in this race are the #6 In Sky We Trust and #9 Air Show.  The former has the right running style for this race, with a fast pace projected, and I thought he ran well on the drop last time when getting away last and then finishing well with too much to do. His overall form is solid, and he also ran well in his four starts on this circuit last year.

Air Show has been showing speed since being turned back to sprint earlier in the year, but he has proven to be capable from just off the pace in the past. I thought his last two races were easy to excuse and he should be a fair price in this race. 

David's Response: 

I didn’t have a strong feel for this race, but I could bet #9 Air Show at the right price. I’m willing to forgive his last effort when Junior Alvarado never made any attempt to motivate him. That was a much tougher spot than this anyway, and now he’s getting needed class relief. He has bounced back from poor efforts in the past, and figures to get a more aggressive ride from the apprentice this time.

David's Analysis: 

I’m not thrilled with this Rudy Rodriguez entry, and they figure to go favored with both halves offering some appeal. #1A Daufuskie Island really came to hand this spring with a series of career-best performances. Yet you always wonder how long those hot streaks are going to last for former claimers like this, so I’m a little concerned that he was so lackluster last time. I do prefer him to his stablemate, but wouldn’t want to take a short price on either.

I much prefer #8 Durante and would bet him at any price around 9-5 or higher, since I think he actually deserves to be favored in this spot. This horse’s form looks a little tough to read, since they intermittently tried turf and have gone longer with him on a few occasions. He’s really more of a dirt sprinter/miler, and I love his last couple of races. He got a perfect trip two back but absolutely sprinted away from that field once asked to go. He then showed no signs of regression last time for David Jacobson when overcoming a poor start and uncomfortable trip to win going away. This is a step up in class, but the race didn’t come up as tough as it could have for the level. The outside post is ideal for a horse like this.

Mike's Response: 

David and I are on the same horse in this race, for the same reasons. If he is anywhere near his ML odds, I will be betting Durante. 

David's Analysis: 

Off the turf, my primary idea is to play against horses who will take money off turf races. That narrows down the pool of candidates significantly. #16 Mucho Mama Mia might not look like much on paper, but I at least have some confidence that she's best at a mile on dirt, which is more than I can say about some others. She didn't get much of a speed figure for her last race, but was staying on decently at the end and the two who finished ahead of her both came back to win with improved speed figures. #7 Jayla is another candidate who fits the criteria, but I'm a little less convinced despite her seemingly competitive dirt form.

David's Analysis: 

Some will bemoan the fact that Chad Brown has 4 of the 8 runners entered for turf in this field, but I still think it’s a fun race to handicap. There are plenty of promising fillies in here, and I think you could make a reasonable case for every horse entered for grass.

A couple of fillies are dropping out of the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks, but I’m not sure that #2 Aspray or #8 Prerequisite are really getting any class relief, since that wasn’t the toughest edition of that race. I prefer Aspray from the Oaks, since she was never on the rail and tried to launch an uncovered 3-wide move around the far turn before flattening out. She figures to get more pace to close into in this spot, but I’m still not quite sure how good I think she is.

I want the runners from the Lake George. That felt like a pretty strong race for the level. I don’t have a major issue with that race’s winner #7 Surge Capacity, but she did get a very good trip from Joel Rosario, saving ground every step of the way before sneaking through along the rail in the stretch. #4 Tax Implications really didn’t run any worse, stalking in the 2-path all the way before angling out in the stretch. She came with her usual strong finish but just couldn’t catch her stablemate. It figures to be a different situation this time with other speed signed on, so I prefer Tax Implications at what figures to be a better price.

You could even build a case for the Todd Pletcher runners. I think #6 Soviet Excess is mildly interesting after racing against the flow last time in the Wild Applause, but I know Mike prefers the other Pletcher.

Mike's Response: 

I don't want to advocate too hard for Junipermarshmallow here, as she is making her 3yo debut off a significant layoff while facing a solid field of turf fillies. She is exactly the kind of horse that I, personally, like to wager on, however. Especially at the odds she has to be in this spot.  

This filly has a very strong pedigree behind her, and she looked like a potential graded stakes horse in her two appearances as a juvenile. After a green beginning to her debut at Keeneland, this filly was comfortable sitting behind horses for a long way while awaiting room. After finally edging all the way to the outside in the stretch to get clear, she came right by the leaders to win easier than it may appear. Her only other start came in the Wait A While, where she was wide around the track but once again closed down the leaders easily while appearing to have more to give. She has her work cut out for her in this spot but she also has a chance to be pretty good, and this might be the time to get her at a price.

David and Mike's Joint Late Pick-5

David and Mike put their heads together to come up with a late Pick-5 sequence that incorporates both of their opinions. (Total wagers: $144)

A / B / C
R7:  4,5 / 2,7 / --
R8:  4,7 / -- / 3
R9:  2,5,9 / -- / --
R10:  1,9 / 2 / 7
R11:  1,10,14 / -- / --

Mike's Analysis: 

I didn't want #3 Gerrymander as the favorite in this quality allowance going a mile out of the chute. She might get early control, but I don't love her form this year - or overall, for that matter. 

#7 Nostalgic is a viable alternative after running well over this track and trip last time when second ahead of Gerrymander, and that was her first start off the layoff. I am a bit concerned that she draws outside this time, as she is almost certain to be last early. 

If I bet the race, I want to take a shot with #4 Favor. She was also in that 7/19 race, where she was also first back from a long layoff. Favor was also chasing a solid pace from the outside all the way, and she only tired in the late stages after getting overtaken by the 1-2 finishers. I always viewed her as a filly of some potential, and I thought she took a step forward when scoring over this distance back in December, after which she wound up missing more time.  She has the speed to be prominent from the start and she doesn't have to improve that much in her second start back. 

David's Response: 

I’ve never been a fan of Mike’s pick, but I won’t knock a price here.

#7 Nostalgic is not the most trustworthy runner, but I liked her last race, where just seemed to get on track a little too late. The winner is a nice horse, and she’s going to be tough on this field with any step forward with that effort under her belt. Bill Mott is 8 for 33 (24%, $2.13 ROI) second off a 180-360 day layoff in dirt routes over 5 years.

And this is a little off topic, but I think this old notion that inside posts are preferred out of the Wilson Chute isn’t rooted in reality. If anything I would prefer to be drawn outside based on the way these races typically play out. At this meet, Post 7 is actually winning at the highest rate (35%) going that distance.

David's Analysis: 

This Alabama does not disappoint from the perspective of drawing the right players in the division, or from shaping up as an interesting race to handicap. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been true of too many stakes at this meet.

I’m not really against #2 Wet Paint, who I view as a legitimate favorite. She just feels a little too obvious in a race that many feel she is supposed to win, and the fact remains that she’s never run a particularly fast race for a horse who is near the top of her division. I don’t mind the added distance for her, and it looks like there’s some pace in here. It’s just hard to take a very short price on a horse who has to rally from far back as she does, and the size of the field arguably doesn’t do her any favors in that regard.

#3 Julia Shining and #8 Randomized are the second and third choices on my morning line, and I’m not too interested in betting either one at those prices. Julia Shining is another who many assume will get better going this distance, based on pedigree, but you have to wonder where she’s been for the past 4 months. Coming into a race like this off a layoff is hardly ideal and it’s difficult for me to get past the visual of her races, where she just looks like an unwilling participant. Randomized might have more natural talent, but she’s had all the best of it in her victories and I’m not convinced the 10 furlongs will work for her.

I was torn between a couple of alternatives when settling on a pick. I definitely considered #9 Taxed, but I’ll let Mike cover that filly.

My top pick is #5 Fireline. I’m not totally convinced of her quality, but I do think she’s cut out for this kind of trip. I was impressed by her return from the layoff, where she defeated a horse who has been in great form, going away at the end. The Delaware Oaks was pretty ugly, but that’s a quirky venue that some horses just don’t seem to handle. It’s a vote of confidence from Chad Brown that she’s even in this race off that kind of performance. She still has some upside and figures to get somewhat overlooked in a race that has so many other appealing options.

Mike's Response: 

I'm not against Wet Paint in this race, though I found some of the other shorter prices in this Alabama field to be hard to get behind.

I can't say I'm totally convinced that #9 Tax will improve going this distance, though I'm also not sure that she has to. I thought Tax tipped her hand that she was much improved when second to Wet Paint in the Fantasy back on April 1. She was a big price that day, but she was caught over behind horses around the turn while Wet Paint was sweeping up on the outside, and she came with a good finish to gain some ground after having to switch out behind that rival.  She confirmed that effort when dominating the Black Eyed Susan over nine furlongs in her next start, and she had little chance in her prep for this when bumped back to last and caught behind a rated pace at the start. 

Mike's Analysis: 

I was interested in giving #9 Verbal one more chance in this race as he finally puts races together, but that was before seeing David's morning line. I will not be betting him at 5/2.  

I also like Chad's other horse, #2 Napoleonic War, though he won't be slipping through the cracks here, either. 

One notable thing about this race is the recent Joe Sharp claim of #7 Runningwscissors. He has never been beyond six furlongs on turf, but it is interesting to compare his pps to those of #3 Call Me Harry, who sported a very similar profile last year before Sharp reached in for this exact tag.  

David's Response: 

I don’t have a major problem with the short prices in this race, other than the fact that they’re short prices. There just isn’t much interesting about Napoleonic War, Verbal, or Whisper Not that would make me want to take them at relatively short prices.

I’m taking a shot with #1 Duke of Hazzard. His last race looks terrible on paper, but it’s a little easier to forgive when you watch it. Another horse alongside him got extremely rank after the start, and basically prompted this guy to run off with him, making a premature move. He just wasn’t handling the course that day thereafter and faded. His prior form makes him a strong fit here, and now he’s first off the claim for Rick Dutrow, Jr.

David's Analysis: 

#10 Henson is a strange entrant in this race. This horse was one of the bigger surprises of the meet when he nearly pulled off a shocking upset on July 14 for virtually unknown connections. It’s a little odd that he was an apparent private purchase out of that race for such powerful new connections, and it’s even stranger than he’s now in for a $40k tag one month later. I have no idea what they paid for this gelding, but you have to imagine they weren’t aiming to buy a maiden claimer. I suppose he's a little easier to trust on dirt than he would have been on turf, but I'm still skeptical.

On dirt, I wanted to lean towards the MTO runners. #14 Blue Plate Special makes plenty of sense getting back on dirt for Linda Rice. She has great stats off the claim with maidens, and the turf experiment just didn't work out last time. He's best as a dirt sprinter and looks like the horse to beat.

My top pick is #1A Petrolo. I know he looks a little slower on paper, but both of those starts came over the winter when he was barely older than a 2-year-old. He obviously needed his debut and then took a big step forward in his second start, showing improved speed before fading at 7 furlongs. I like the way he's been training for his return, and this barn typically targets this meet. He figures to be a decent price, especially if the other half of the entry scratches.