David's Analysis: 

I didn’t have much interest in this race from a wagering standpoint. #5 Tall Paul seems likely to attract a ton of support as a rare Bob Baffert runner competing in New York. I thought this colt ran fine on debut, but it’s not as if he earned some kind of formidable speed figure, and the jury is still out on the quality of that field.

I thought his biggest challenges could come from first time starters. #8 Quiet Wisdom has pedigree, as an Into Mischief-sired half-brother to solid allowance horse Curlin’s Wisdom. His dam is also a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Connect. He’s been training down at Belmont, probably due to the fact that he appeared to miss some time in early July. I put him on top as my best guess.

I would also be afraid of #7 Gucci Man, who debuts for Larry Rivelli. First time starters are not Rivelli’s best angle, but he’s a dangerous trainer who is usually sending live runners when he ships outside of his Hawthorne base.

Mike's Response: 

As always, I am happy to avoid first-time starters whenever possible, especially when they project to take money. Tall Paul had speed on debut, and maybe he's just in the right spot here, but it's not like his debut was that compelling. I thought #6 Mama's Middie made a nice run after getting lost early in his wet-track debut. He has some pedigree behind him and can take the necessary step forward here at what might be a fair price.

Mike's Analysis: 

I suppose #8 Ocean Mermaid will be some kind of short price in this MSW turf sprint. Probably deservedly so based on the debut, where she went favored in a $100k stake and wound up chasing Crimson Advocate around the track to no avail - not that that was a strong field otherwise. Crimson Advocate shipped over to Ascot and won the Group 2 Queen Mary in her next start. There are some interesting firsters in here, but I am unlikely to get invested against the chalk. 

David's Response: 

I don’t have a major issue with the favorite, other than the fact that she’s going to be an awfully short price.

I do believe there are some potentially talented first time starters in this lineup. My top pick is #2 Revelatory. I really like the way this son of Munnings has been training for his debut. Notably, Todd Pletcher has elected not to work him on turf, which can sometimes be a good sign in these situations, especially with horses working as well as this one. He was easily best when always traveling strongly in company in that July 27 drill and appears to have a big, loping stride that should translate well to grass.

I have also liked the recent gate workouts of #1 All About Tonite and #4 Good Lore Lorrie. Perhaps the Wesley Ward filly will just be too strong for these inexperienced colts, but I could upgrade any of those firsters if they are fair prices.

David's Analysis: 

I’m not sure what to make of the recent improvement by #3 Freudian. I really didn’t think much of her when she first came into the Rob Falcone barn last winter, but she is obviously quite a bit better these days. She didn’t even run that badly in those two turf races this spring, and last time she held her own against a pretty tough rival at Monmouth. She was very much with the track that day on an afternoon when the rail seemed to be a disadvantage, but she’ll still be tough here if she repeats that effort.

Rick Dutrow sends out a pair of runners who are both exiting the July 13 race at this level. #2 Sa Foradada narrowly finished ahead of #6 Mursal, but I much prefer the latter runner this time. Sa Foradada has had her fair share of chances and just keeps settling for second. Mursal ran the better race when they met last time, since she was attacking a strong pace that came apart. I don’t mind her stretching back out to a mile, and she’s drawn well outside.

Mike's Response: 

David and I have the same opinion on this race. I thought Mursal was best last time and she might be hard on this field right back.

Mike's Analysis: 

My main opinion in this race is that the likely favorites do very little for me. I have #6 One Giant Leap in there, as he is still lightly raced and has taken steps forward with each start. Though I am unlikely to want anything to do with him at 2/1 or less. #3 Commerce Comet did appear to improve when last seen in Indiana, but I don't really like any of his races. 

I picked #2 Thunderian at a better price as he drops and returns to dirt. I don't mind him cutting back to sprint in a race that does appear to have some pace signed on, and he did win his only other start for this tag. 

Had #1 Dangerous Ride done any real running last time I might've taken him. I still think he can be effective here, but I will wait to see what kind of price he is.

David's Response: 

I didn’t have a clever take on this one. I actually have liked #6 One Giant Leap’s races, so much that I’m a little surprised Ward is just dropping him in for $32k. Yet Ward will do that at times and still have success. Looking up stats in Formulator, I was blown away by Wesley Ward’s numbers with these types. He is 13 for 25 (52%, $3.48 ROI) in claiming dirt races at NYRA over the past 5 years, and he’s 11 for 25 (44%, $2.39 ROI) with last-out winners in dirt claiming races across all circuits.

I wanted to make a stronger case for #7 Ten Cent Town, who showed some ability against New York-breds over the winter. Yet he needs to get faster if he’s to take down some of the shorter prices.

David's Analysis: 

This looks like another potentially strong maiden special weight for 2-year-olds, and notably is the first one of the meet carded at 7 furlongs.

#6 Ridgewood Runner is the only horse with experience, and while he didn’t run badly on debut, it seems likely that he’s encountering a much deeper field this time. I wanted firsters.

#1 Eliminate is sure to attract plenty of support as he debuts for Todd Pletcher. This son of Curlin appears to be getting progressively stronger in his workouts leading into this debut. He held his own, while perhaps slightly second best, with Be You from the gate on July 29, and was flattered when that one barely lost last week with an 88 Beyer. He then was much the best in another gate drill on Aug. 6, looking like a horse that is ready to fire on debut. Some may be deterred by the consecutive gate breezes, but it’s a signature move for Pletcher with his live runners, and a good sign.

I put #3 Reynolds Channel on top. This Bill Mott trainee is by relatively new sire West Coast, but he’s a half-brother to the solid sprinter/miler Hot Fudge, who did have success as a 2-year-old. He has also been working quite well for his unveiling. I was especially impressed by his most recent drill on Aug. 6 when he was always going easier inside a workmate, drawing clear late. Mott is having a strong meet and can have one ready to run well on debut.

Mike's Response: 

This looks like an excellent MSW for 2-year-olds, with the seven-furlong distance likely to come into play. I could make cases for just about everyone colt in this field but made #8 Informed Patriot my top pick. He has pedigree to go along with a nice outside draw, and Asmussen has been aces in this situation recently - 2yo, First-time starter, Saratoga, dirt, 6.5-to-7 furlongs: 5 for his last 11, 45%, $3.47 ROI. Watching with interest, if not betting.

Mike's Analysis: 

The experienced runners here have mostly already had their chances. To me, the two most interesting horses are #2 Nolita and #8 Island Rose, both of whom have started only once and might have gotten a lot out of their respective debuts. 

I prefer Nolita, who caught a wet track and wound up well back off a quick pace first time out. She progressed throughout the running of that race after moving wide, and was still gaining at the end while coming up just short of second. 

Island Rose took on a tough distance first time out and appeared to really need that start. She can improve quickly here.

David's Response: 

I generally agree with Mike’s approach here. I thought about putting Nolita on top, but I ultimately sided with #8 Island Rose at a better price. This filly just ran like one who badly needed the experience on debut. She was pretty green through the early stages and was conservatively ridden by Rosario through the lane while just appearing to lack some focus. Now she puts blinkers on, and gets a switch to a much more physical rider in Trevor McCarthy. She took money that day and had reportedly worked well into that start.

I’m also afraid of first time starter #11 Richies Princess. This filly’s female family is filled with nothing but true racehorses, including talented New York-breds Dugout and Adios Asher, among other good ones. Larry Rivelli tends to mean business with these horses he ships out of Hawthorne, and she’s coming off a strong workout last week.

David's Analysis: 

I get mixed signals from likely favorite #8 Love Reigns in this Galway. She’s clearly the one to beat, but it’s somewhat troubling that she races so infrequently. I know a portion of this layoff was caused by Mother Nature, since she was scratched in the off the turf Coronation Cup last month. She did run well when last seen in the Limestone at Keeneland, but I thought a little too much was made of her trip that day. Sure, there were some dicey moments, but it ultimately worked out. Wesley Ward said he wasn’t pleased with her training out of that race, which is why she didn’t go to Royal Ascot. Her last two breezes over the Oklahoma course have been pretty leisurely, and I’m just not convinced at a short price.

I had liked #4 Love Appeals in the Coronation Cup, and she figures to be an even better price now that she’s coming off a loss at Monmouth. I thought she ran the best race in that Blue Sparkler, as she was off a step slowly and was steadied along early before unleashing a nice turn of foot in upper stretch. She flattened out a bit late, but the uncomfortable trip has something to do with that, and she was also coming off a layoff. She should be tighter this time, and she doesn’t have to rally from as far back as last time if she breaks.

I might be reaching a little here, but I also want to use #1 Dream Concert out of that Blue Sparkler. It’s unclear how good this filly truly is, but she did not get a good trip that day. She was shuffled back early, and then forced to race 4-wide on the far turn before getting floated wider into the stretch. Paco Lopez appeared to give up in the late stages, but she was still running on, appealing to handle the turf just fine. She’s going to be a huge price in here, and I want to include her on my tickets.

Mike's Response: 

I am on board with David's pick in here. Love Appeals was done in by the trip last time, and she is handy enough to get herself into a better position this time. 

I'll be using her, but want to bet on #3 Isabel Alexandra. This filly looked good winning her debut over a short sprint distance, then stretched out for her next three starts and didn't get lucky in the trip department in any of those races - particularly the Ginger Brew in January when hopelessly blocked in the stretch while in contention. She got back to sprinting on the grass last time and fired a good one to overpower a fast filly on the lead en route to big Beyer improvement. She is a price in here and might be a lot better than she looks. 

David and Mike's Joint Late Pick-5

David and Mike put their heads together to come up with a Pick-5 wager that incorporates both of their opinions. (Total wagers: $156)

A / B / C
R7:  3,4 / -- / 1,8
R8:  3,5 / -- / 1
R9:  4,6,7 / -- / --
R10:  7,10 / 6,9 / 1,4
R11:  1,10 / 2,4 / --

Mike's Analysis: 

#6 Rhyme Schemes just earned a 94 Beyer while toying with a field in his second start at Ellis Park. That effort came on the heels of a debut run that was better than it looks vs. a very strong field. He is clearly the one to beat and is a likely winner if able to repeat that effort. I am happy to make him do it at short odds. 

I prefer #5 Edified and will bet him at the ML price. This well-bred colt didn't take much money on debut, and he didn't run that fast, but I liked everything about his effort that day and think there might be a lot more to come. He wasn't off to the greatest start in the world in that debut, but he kept right up on the heels of the leader around the turn, before smoothly switching clear as that field came into the stretch, and then firing clear. Maybe he can't beat the favorite, but I'll pay to find out.

David's Response: 

I agree that Rhyme Schemes was pretty impressive in that maiden score at Ellis, and there’s no debating that it came up an extremely fast race. However, it was contested on a day when speed was extremely dominant, and this horse got away with relatively moderate fractions before spurting away. He may be too good for this group, but I can’t get past the fact that he’s going to take a substantial amount of play based on a race that may be bias-aided.

I struggled to come up with an alternative, and even contemplated getting as creative as picking outsider #1 Lasso, who actually did have some real trouble on debut but exits a slow race.

I ultimately settled on #3 Woodcourt. This modestly bred colt was no match for the talented American Rascal on debut, but took a big step forward last time at Ellis. He was outrun early by a precocious rival but gradually wore that one down with steady strides. There are some reasons to believe that race may be a bit stronger than the 57 Beyer. He’s since sold for $95k at auction, and now goes out for Brendan Walsh, who is having a strong meet. I’d rather take him at a big price as opposed to the Pletcher or Asmussen runners, both of whom exit races of dubious quality.

David's Analysis: 

This Fourstardave came up relatively thin, with the main players all exiting the local prep for this, the Grade 3 Kelso. I suppose some might try to make a case for #1 Emmanuel, but I’ve never been that horse’s biggest fan and thought we saw his ceiling last time in the Poker victory. That race earned a big speed figure, but the runbacks from it haven’t been so strong.

Most will be choosing between the top two from the Kelso. #6 Casa Creed has to be considered the horse to beat this time after decisively beating his main rival in that Kelso. He covered more ground and still bounded away to a convincing score. The victory was no real surprise, as he’s always been proficient over this one-mile distance, and is able to make more of an impact now that the division is a bit lighter.

#4 Annapolis was coming off a slight layoff into the Kelso, but I still wasn’t thrilled with his effort. He was surprisingly far back in the early stages, and just lacked some punch when he finally angled out in the stretch. I thought he was very fortunate when he achieved his primary claim to fame, winning the Turf Mile at Keeneland last year, and view him as being somewhat overrated.

Perhaps I’m overcomplicating the race to look beyond these short prices, but I thought #7 Ice Chocolat was the interesting horse coming out of the Kelso. He got slightly shuffled back after the start, putting him last early. Prat showed no urgency to get him involved until the stretch, but he traveled very well to the quarter pole, appealing to still have plenty of run. Yet he followed tiring runners into the lane in a race dominated by outside movers, and had to wait before altering course. I don’t think he was ever winning on that occasion, but he still ran better than I expected. Looking back, it’s unclear why this horse was ever pigeonholed as a turf sprinter, since there’s nothing wrong with his races going longer. He’s entered with a rabbit this time, so Casse seems serious about him actually having a chance in a race that he surely has some fondness for.

Mike's Response: 

I looked at the Kelso totally differently. I thought Casa Creed got a perfect trip in that race while always having Annapolis out-positioned. I still like him here, but hardly thought that victory was decisive. 

Annapolis was involved in some bumping at the start of that race (with Ice Chocolat), which left him back off the pace, and somehow behind Casa Creed throughout the running of that race. I actually thought he finished up pretty well with no real chance to catch. He is capable of getting a much handier position in this race and can easily turn the tables if he does.

I thought about Ice Chocolat, as well, and couldn't quite talk myself into him.

Mike's Analysis: 

More than anything else, I didn't want to get too caught up in the figures earned by the horses drawn toward the inside half of this field, none of whom I think are very good. I took #10 Ice Road at a better price as I do think he has run well in his two NY starts while not getting the best of the trips either time. This outside post is no bargain, but he is a price and might not be in as tough as it appears. He is better on dirt, if nothing else, and Irad sticks.

I also think #9 Memphis can be a player in here at a fair price. He did no running in a tough spot while debuting on turf and wound up dropping right away. But he did some good things en route to that victory last time, as he sat wide from the start and then was forced to go early with odds-on Cloud Forest making a run to take command still on the backstretch. I appreciated the way Memphis stuck with him and then dueled him down, and this horse has enough pedigree to be viable going forward. 

David's Response: 

I agree with Mike about Mistical Curlin, who would obviously dominate a field like this on his best day but is awfully hard to trust, especially on a fast track.  

I’m a little more positive on #6 Cicciobello, who has steadily improved through his recent starts and comes off a game runner-up effort in an allowance race that seemed pretty strong for the level.

I was also looking at a Linda Rice runner as an alternative, but instead opted for #7 Chileno, who could be a better price. He obviously disappointed through his recent series of efforts for Steve Asmussen, but he was competing against tougher fields than this on most of those occasions. Linda Rice generally has had success with these expensive Kentucky claims. She tried something different when she first got this horse last time, but he proved that turf is not for him. Now Linda is going back to dirt with him, and she notably chooses not to drop him in class. He once was running well enough to beat this field, and he figures to be a fair price.

David's Analysis: 

With the rails coming down on the inner turf course this week (assuming we’re on turf), I’m a little worried about some of the runners drawn in outside post positions being compromised. That’s my main worry with #10 Rheaume, who is a bit interesting here. Though, I have to admit that I wish she had done a little more running in her races this year, since selling for a surprisingly light $25k earlier in the season. I ultimately left out both her and #9 Photon, who seems destined for an outside chasing trip.

#2 Waterville got a much better trip than #6 Solib when they met in that July 15 race at this level, but Solib caused all her own trouble, getting agitated in the post parade and then losing it on the track. Waterville isn’t exactly appealing since she’s so obvious, but I do trust her more than Solib, who may be stretched a bit at this distance.

I ultimately went in a different direction. I can’t knock the recent form of #4 Stella Mars. She’s probably a “last time was the time” type, but she’s going out for connections that rarely take money and she’s drawn well again.

My top pick is #1 Spinning Colors. In a race where I’ve seen enough of most of the contenders, she strikes me as one that may be on the rise. She clearly improved with turf and added distance this spring, and I liked the way she finished off that maiden race last time. She drew a great post position and lands in a race that didn’t come up that tough for the level.

Mike's Response: 

I won't argue with any outsider opinions in the finale, as the shorter prices are hardly reliable. I thought Waterville ran fine last time - almost certainly the best effort of her career - but that doesn't mean I would take her at a short price. The outside draw hurts Rheaume's chances but I want to try to wake her up here. I thought she ran a bit better last time and wonder if finally working her back to shorter distances isn't exactly what she needs. She still needs a trip, however.