STRENGTHS: Factoring ground loss, Renegade ranks among the fastest in the Kentucky Derby. He earned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure winning the Arkansas Derby, but he lost considerable ground rallying wide and running away by four lengths. His closing kick at 1 1/8 miles – final three furlongs in 36.57 seconds in the Arkansas Derby – suggests 1 1/4 miles is fine. Each start by Renegade earned a higher figure than the start before, and he has faced good company. In his Grade 3 two back, Renegade crushed The Puma, who later won a Grade 3 and missed by a nose in a Grade 1. Last year, Renegade traded decisions with Paladin, a top Derby contender before being sidelined.
WEAKNESSES: Renegade is likely to lose ground, as his style requires a rally-wide trip. It’s not technically a weakness, just acknowledgement. Renegade is trained by Todd Pletcher, who is 2 for 65 in the Kentucky Derby. But the stat requires context. Excluding a coupled entry, Pletcher started only 14 runners in the Derby at single-digit odds, with two wins and two thirds. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has not hit the board with nine Derby mounts. Again, this is not a “weakness,” merely fact. As for the prep that Renegade won, Arkansas Derby winners are 2 for 22 in the Kentucky Derby since 2000 – favorites Smarty Jones in 2004 and American Pharoah in 2015.
BETTING VALUE: As likely favorite, with a style at the mercy of pace and traffic, Renegade is an underlay at less than 6-1. The most recent favorite to win the Derby was Justify in 2018.

SIRE: Seven-time reigning leading sire Into Mischief can do it all, and his tremendous Kentucky Derby success puts him near the record books. He is the sire of 2020 Horse of the Year Authentic, winner of the pandemic-delayed Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic; of 2021 official Derby winner Mandaloun; and of last year’s Horse of the Year Sovereignty, who won the Derby, Belmont, and Travers, all at 10 furlongs. Another Derby win would give Into Mischief the all-time record, and he has a number of chances this year with Renegade, Commandment, and Potente.
DAM: Renegade is the first foal for Spice Is Nice, who is by stamina influence Curlin. In that discipline, she won the Grade 3 Allaire duPont Distaff at 1 1/8 miles at Pimlico. She is out of Dame Dorothy, whose biggest win came in the Grade 1 Humana Distaff at seven furlongs, but who also was a Grade 3 winner and Grade 1-placed around two turns. Dame Dorothy is a half-sister to Mrs. Lindsay, a multiple Grade/Group 1 winner routing on turf.
OUTLOOK: Those looking to poke holes in the expected Derby favorite on pedigree will have a very hard time doing so. Renegade is by a proven classic sire and has a very strong foundation from his female family. A little turf ability, often a plus on the Churchill dirt, is a bonus. Into Mischief’s runners also perform well on wet tracks, as evidenced by Sovereignty in last year’s Derby.

STRENGTHS: Albus has improved with each start, including an upset in the Wood Memorial last out. Although his Beyer Speed Figure declined one point from his maiden victory (84 to 83), he ran “faster” in the Wood if ground loss is factored. The new closing style he employed in the Wood may serve him well in the Derby. If a pace meltdown unfolds, Albus could pick up the pieces. Anything goes in the trifecta three-hole. Having started just four times and just twice this year, Albus has a right to continue his upward pattern as his 3-year-old campaign unfolds.

WEAKNESSES: At this point in his career, Albus is not fast enough to win the Kentucky Derby. His career-high 84 Beyer Speed Figure is 18 points below the average Derby-winning figure the past 10 years. Furthermore, the Wood Memorial has been non-productive. Since 2004, the only Wood winner to hit the board in the Kentucky Derby was Tacitus, fourth across the wire in 2019 and moved to third via disqualification.

BETTING VALUE: A fair price on Albus would be 100-1. That price is rarely available in the Kentucky Derby, a race in which even no-hopers are bet below fair value. A best-case scenario for Albus would be to somehow slip into the trifecta. Albus figures to be among the longest shots in the field. Barring sudden and unexpected improvement, he is tough to make a case for.

SIRE: Yaupon won four sprint stakes, highlighted by the Grade 1 Forego, and was last year’s leading freshman sire thanks largely to progeny who inherited his speed. He is from a precocious line being by the late Uncle Mo, a juvenile champion who sired another juvenile champion in Nyquist. The latter, who went on to win the 2016 Kentucky Derby, has continued to stoke hopes for Uncle Mo’s remaining sons at stud, as he has been a versatile and successful sire, including around two turns.

DAM: In addition to Albus, Adream is the dam of Song of Spring, winner of the Grade 3 Allaire duPont Distaff at nine furlongs. Adream is a half-sister to Dream Rush, a multiple Grade 1 winner around one turn but a multiple stakes producer with two-turn influence. Her best runner was Dreaming of Julia, who won the Grade 1 Frizette at a one-turn mile and the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks going two turns. Dreaming of Julia’s two-time champion daughter Malathaat was a six-time Grade 1 winner, including the Kentucky Oaks and Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Standout broodmare sire Bernardini, who is a successful cross with Uncle Mo and Nyquist, adds additional stamina.

OUTLOOK: A May foal, Albus is by a sprinter but from a deep female family with stamina. He appears to be leaning on those abilities, and his grandsire Uncle Mo.

STRENGTHS: Has steady Beyers, and while he has proven himself to be quick out of the gate, he has also shown that he can sit off the speedsters and make one run, as he did in his win in the American Pharoah last year. He was off the board but was against a speed-friendly race flow in that Santa Anita Derby and was also caught wide. He was sharp in defeat in his prior try in the Lewis, which marked his seasonal debut, and comes into the Kentucky Derby primed for a move forward in his third start off the layoff.

WEAKNESSES: While his figures are steady, they are also light, as he has never broken 90 on the Beyer scale. It’s going to take at least that in order to get into the trifecta if the top contenders approach their best races. The 10-length loss in the Santa Anita Derby is concerning in that he was facing a much better field than he did in the Lewis and failed to sustain his run in his first try beyond 1 1/16 miles. His best races have come when he has been on or near the lead, and it’s going to be tough for him to last if the fractions are on the quick side.

BETTING VALUE: Will be a big price, and deservedly so given

SIRE: Maximus Mischief, winner of the Grade 2 Remsen around two turns as a juvenile, is by Into Mischief, who is bidding to become the winningest sire in Kentucky Derby history, with three winners to his credit and multiple starters expected in this year’s edition. Another son of Into Mischief, Goldencents, continued to prove the sireline out as the sire of 2024 Derby winner Mystik Dan. Although Intrepido won the Grade 1 American Pharoah around two turns as a juvenile, Maximus Mischief’s top runners have generally come around one turn – including Raging Torrent, who hit his best stride late in his 3-year-old campaign and early as a 4-year-old to win the Malibu, Godolphin Mile, and Metropolitan Handicap in succession.

DAM: Overly Indulgent, who earned her only placings at age 4, is the dam of three winners from five starters to date. Neither of her other starters have won beyond 6 1/2 furlongs, including Amy Z, a full sister to Intrepido.

OUTLOOK: Although Intrepido was a high-end juvenile from a precocious and classic sireline, his pedigree and this year’s performances raise doubts about his two-turn ability. The later development of some family members suggest he could move forward as his career continues.

STRENGTHS: He has ample foundation with five 2-year-old starts to his credit, during which he never finished worse than fourth. His solid juvenile form included a victory in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity following strong showings behind the future champion 2-year-old male Ted Noffey in both the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity and Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He earned high Beyer Speed Figures in the mid-90s twice at 2, when his tactical speed was on display. Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby six times, and Litmus Test’s sire, Nyquist, also won the Run for the Roses.

WEAKNESSSES: He was a sagging third when favored in his season opener in the Grade 2 Rebel and was never in the hunt most recently in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Those two Oaklawn races were disappointing, and he might be one of those precocious juveniles who has not trained on. Going a route of ground, he may prefer racing up front, and there is other potential speed in the Derby field.

BETTING VALUE: This third start of his form cycle might be an improved one, and a price around 40-1 seems square on “the other Baffert,” which has been a productive angle over the years

SIRE: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and Eclipse Award champion Nyquist went on to win the 2016 Kentucky Derby. He has been a very versatile sire, with champion juveniles in his own mold, including Immersive, Vequist, and Canadian Gretzky the Great, but also with horses who have trained on on both surfaces, often around two turns. Nysos is a six-time graded stakes winner, including the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, and was most recently second to Forever Young in the Saudi Cup. Nyquist also is the sire of dirt Grade 1 winners Cavalieri, Randomized, Slow Down Andy, and Tenma, and turf Grade 1 winners Argos, Johannes, and Velocity.

DAM: Study Hard, by classic sire Malibu Moon, is the dam of three winners from four starters. Litmus Test is joined by Calmate and Home School, who both won at 1 1/8 miles. Study Hard is a full sister to Grade 2-winning sprinter Sweet August Moon, dam of Grade 2-placed sprinter Sir Samson.

OUTLOOK: It stands to reason that Nyquist could be a classic sire, particularly when crossed over a proven distance sire in Malibu Moon. While there’s sprint ability in this family, Study Hard has proven something of an outlier in her production.

STRENGTHS: He represented himself well against a top 3-yearold on the New York circuit in Iron Honor, who was the favorite in the Wood Memorial. Right to Party was third to Iron Honor twice leading up to the race, and in the Wood finished in front of him when a closing second. Right to Party negotiated a large field in the race, which gives him valuable experience over those who have been competing in shorter fields. Right to Party is making his first start at Churchill Downs, but has worked well over the surface and is running out of the home base of his trainer, Kenny McPeek, who won the 2024 Kentucky Derby with Mystik Dan.

WEAKNESSES: The highest Beyer Speed Figure he has earned is an 81, while five of his rivals have earned numbers of 100 or more topped by the 106 Beyer that Further Ado put up winning the Blue Grass. Right to Party has not won a major prep and he’s never raced outside of Aqueduct. He’s also a closer and will be dependent on pace and will need to work out a clean trip in a field that could draw as many as 20 horses.

BETTING VALUE: He should go off at 20-1 or higher and is a draw for those who want to take a shot with a closer down the long stretch at Churchill.

SIRE: Constitution, by Tapit, was a multiple Grade 1 winner of the Florida Derby and Donn Handicap. His first crop was led by classic performer Tiz the Law, who in the pandemic-shuffled 2020 season won the Belmont at 1 1/8 miles around one turn, won the Travers at the classic 1 1/4 miles, and was second in the September Kentucky Derby, also at 1 1/4 miles. While clearly a standout at two turns, Tiz the Law also won the Grade 1 Champagne at a one-turn mile at 2. Many of Constitution’s best runners have shown both brilliance around one turn and the stamina to go longer. A prime example is classic-placed Mindframe, winner of the Grade 1 Churchill Downs at seven furlongs and Grade 1 Stephen Foster at 1 1/8 miles last year.

DAM: Havin’ a Party has produced two winners – Right to Party and his full brother Woodhull, a winner at a mile. This mare is a half-sister to a number of stakes producers, including Loving Vindication, dam of Canadian classic winner and champion Wonder Gadot – also second in the Kentucky Oaks – and of Grade 1 La Brea winner Hard Not to Love, who was a solid performer going longer. Their dam, Chimichurri, won the Grade 3 Tempted at a mile and was Grade 1-placed sprinting.

OUTLOOK: Right to Party will have the longer odds of Constitution’s two expected Derby starters – the other is Chief Wallabee – but he has a stronger female family to back up their sire distancewise.

STRENGTHS: He enters the Derby as the top qualifier on points, having won four consecutive races. His characteristic toughness first became evident in his Churchill Downs maiden win, in which he bulled his way out of tight quarters that would have intimidated many youngsters. That same trait gave him the edge in a narrow victory over Chief Wallabee in the Fountain of Youth, and he showcased his adaptability when overcoming a slow pace to win the Florida Derby, widely considered to be the deepest prep. He is the only horse in this field who has achieved two triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures. By Into Mischief, sire of three Kentucky Derby winners, out of a mare by Derby winner Orb, the added ground should be no issue. His tendency to sustain his momentum past the wire on the gallop-out of each race also instills confidence that 1 1/4 miles will suit him.

WEAKNESSES: Some may have concerns that top jockeys Irad Ortiz Jr. and Flavien Prat abandoned Commandment for other mounts in this Derby. Beyond that minor critique, it’s hard to pinpoint any significant vulnerabilities in this strong contender.

BETTING VALUE: You can make a solid argument that Commandment is the most likely winner of this Derby, and yet many believe he won’t even be favored. You also tend to get overlays on logical horses in the Derby given uninformed support for many of the longshots. His fair value is around 4-1, and you should get at least that.

SIRE: Seven-time reigning leading sire Into Mischief can do it all and has had tremendous Kentucky Derby success that puts him near the record books. He is the sire of 2020 Horse of the Year Authentic, winner of the pandemic-delayed Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic; 2021 official Derby winner Mandaloun; and last year’s Horse of the Year, Sovereignty, who won the Derby, Belmont, and Travers, all at 1 1/4 miles. Another Derby win would give Into Mischief the all-time record, and he has a number of chances this year with Commandment, Renegade, and Potente.

DAM: Commandment is the first winner out of Sippican Harbor, who won the Grade 1 Spinaway at seven furlongs and was sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies in what proved her career finale. Career interruptions meant her abilities at two turns were never fully tested, but she was bred to go the distance. This is the immediate family of Royal Spa, a multiple graded stakes winner at middle distances on dirt last year, and of Japanese stakes performer Awesome Result, a winner at up to 1 5/16 miles.

OUTLOOK: Assuming Sippican Harbor could have run longer if given more opportunity, this is a solid two-turn family. Into Mischief and broodmare sire Orb, winner of the 2013 Kentucky Derby, also could provide some wet-track ability if needed.

STRENGTHS: Forever Young proved that a Japanese victory in the Kentucky Derby is indeed possible, falling mere inches shy of glory after a troubled trip. Danon Bourbon is not quite as battletested as that predecessor, coming into this Derby virtually unexposed after three stress-free victories in Japan. However, he has hinted at possessing exceptional quality, subjugating his competition with powerful finishes after stalking from close range. He achieved the fastest winning time in the 26-year history of the Fukuryu Stakes, previously used by T O Password and Master Fencer en route to respectable Kentucky Derby results. Despite racing exclusively in Japan, Danon Bourbon’s bloodlines are anything but foreign, by American sire Maxfield out of a Tapit mare.

WEAKNESSES: Since he has never raced outside of Japan or ventured into graded stakes company, it’s unclear how he will stack up against the best U.S.-based 3-year-olds. He has also enjoyed relatively soft, unbothered trips in his prior starts, so it’s unclear how he will react as part of the 20-horse stampede at Churchill. This will mark the first Kentucky Derby experience not just for the horse but also his trainer and jockey.

BETTING VALUE: Danon Bourbon offers both promise and uncertainty, making it difficult to peg a fair price on him. Anything below 15-1 seems too risky. It should also be noted that last year, on the heels of Forever Young’s near miss, Japanese hope Luxor Cafe got hammered down to fourth choice in the betting at an unreasonable 8-1.

SIRE: This is the first crop for beautifully bred and conformed Maxfield, a Grade 1 winner around two turns at 2 who continued to blossom as an older horse. He is the sire of U.S. stakes winners Max Ciao, who scored his biggest win sprinting against California-breds last year, and Ivy Girl, winner of the Main Line at 1 1/16 miles at Parx Racing.

DAM: Wild Ridge earned her lone win at a mile on turf. She is the dam of five winners, with Danon Bourbon, who has won at 1 3/16 miles in Japan, one of just two of those to win at a mile or longer. Her son Clubhouse is a stakes-placed sprinter. Wild Ridge is out of millionaire Wild Gams, a Grade 2 winner sprinting. She is the dam of Grade 2 Remsen winner Dubyuhnell and graded stakes-winning sprinter Cazadero. Successful broodmare sire Tapit is the most successful stallion in the modern history of the Belmont Stakes, with four winners of the 1 1/2-mile classic.

OUTLOOK: There is much intrigue as to what will happen as Maxfield’s progeny have opportunities to run longer distances. So far, they have shown surprising speed. While the immediate female family raises distance questions beyond a mile, broodmare sire Tapit provides a much needed shot of stamina.

STRENGTHS: Having learned to ration his speed winning the Santa Anita Derby, So Happy enters the Kentucky Derby as a legitimate contender. His last-start Santa Anita win was just his second route. In his initial route two starts back in the San Felipe Stakes, So Happy expended energy pressing the pace and tired. But in the Santa Anita Derby, he doled his speed from a pressing position and drew away. So Happy has speed and is versatile. He is one of only four Derby entrants who earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure in his most recent start. So Happy has raced only four times and therefore has room to improve. His pressing style is more likely to produce a clean trip than the style of a closer. So Happy came out of his Santa Anita Derby in top shape. The morning after, he was at the front of his stall and playfully engaged. He has trained well since.

WEAKNESSES: Much worry regards pedigree. So Happy is by sprinter Runhappy. But distance vulnerability was at least partly resolved winning the Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles. So Happy is the first Derby starter for trainer Mark Glatt.

BETTING VALUE: So Happy is a sentimental choice for many. Glatt lost his wife, Dena, in February, and she was only 57 when she passed. Whether the heartbreaking story will influence the odds is uncertain. On basic handicapping, So Happy is worth backing at 10-1 or higher. That price just might be available.

SIRE: Runhappy was bred and seemingly built to go two turns, but he was a powerful sprinter, with wins in the Grade 2 King’s Bishop, the Breeders’ Cup Sprint to lock up an Eclipse Award, then the Grade 1 Malibu. His progeny are predominantly sprinters, with an average winning distance sitting at 6.7 furlongs in April, but some have two-turn ability. Happy American and Smile Happy are graded stakes winners at middle distances, while Following Sea, a Grade 2 winner around one turn, hit the board in the Grade 1 Haskell going longer.

DAM: So Cunning won 2 of 3 starts, both at six furlongs on dirt. Her other winner besides So Happy won at 7 1/2 furlongs on turf. So Cunning’s dam, So Glitzy, was graded stakes-placed at 1 1/8 miles on dirt, but she is a half-sister to the quick Silver Wagon, multiple Grade 1 winner of the Hopeful and Carter around one turn. Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Blame has become a stellar broodmare sire, with Grade 1 winners out of his daughters, including champion Forte.

OUTLOOK: Runhappy has shown he can strike with a two-turn winner, but he may need some foundation from the broodmare. Smile Happy’s dam won at 1 1/16 miles, and Happy American’s unplaced dam proved herself with prior stakes horses. So Cunning and her family are mainly geared for sprints. So Happy has already won at 1 1/8 miles, but that last furlong could prove testing territory in the deepest field he has faced.

STRENGTHS: Over the winter, The Puma has kept the company of horses who have emerged as top-tier contenders for the Kentucky Derby. In the Sam F. Davis, he was third to Renegade, and in the Florida Derby, he was edged by Commandment and finished in front of Chief Wallabee. The Puma’s maiden win in the Tampa Bay Derby came over Further Ado, who returned to win the Blue Grass. The Puma is one of just five Kentucky Derby probables to have earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure. He follows some of the same races into this year’s Kentucky Derby as 2023 winner Mage, who also debuted at seven furlongs at Gulfstream Park and was second in the Florida Derby. Mage was trained by Gustavo Delgado and ridden by Javier Castellano, the same trainer-jockey team behind The Puma.

WEAKNESSES: He has closed from last in most of his races, and while he ran well, he faced smaller fields than he will have to navigate in the Kentucky Derby, which could draw 20 horses. He hasn’t experienced much travel, as this will be the first time he has raced outside of Florida. He’s less experienced than some of his rivals, with just four career starts, and all of those races have come at age 3.

BETTING VALUE: He could go off as the fourth or fifth choice, and given how he ran against some of the early favorites, he is a win candidate

SIRE: Essential Quality wanted to run as long as they would write races. All of his Grade 1 wins came around two turns, including the Belmont Stakes, making him one of four winners of the longest American classic by sire Tapit. The average winning distance of Essential Quality’s first crop already sits at 7.3 furlongs – a very strong figure, considering that the majority of 2-year-old races are sprints. All of Essential Quality’s stakes winners came in the second half of last year and beyond, and generally his runners have relished added distance.

DAM: Eve of War’s sire, Declaration of War, was a Group 1 winner on turf in Europe and, in his only start on dirt, had a solid finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Eve of War showed similar versatility, as she won at up to nine furlongs on turf but also was third in the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks at 1 1/16 miles on dirt. The Puma is the first runner for Eve of War, who is one of four winners out of her dam, a mare who mainly has thrown sprinters.

OUTLOOK: There is two-turn ability on both sides of this family, and the presence of Essential Quality certainly suggests The Puma could keep grinding to 10 furlongs and beyond. Essential Quality’s foals seem to just be beginning to show their best work.

STRENGTHS: Earned his way here with a solid victory in the UAE Derby, where he managed to keep a quick pace within range early before running down the leaders late. He entered the UAE Derby off of an underrated run through a tough trip in the shorter Saudi Derby. He has a tactical running style and has proven to be effective over longer distances, which can be a dangerous combination in a race like the Kentucky Derby.

WEAKNESSES: He ran well in the UAE Derby, but that did not appear to be the strongest field for that kind of race, and he also was running down a rival who appears to have distance limitations. While getting a true read on his form in Japan can be tricky, it is probably fair to say that the Kentucky Derby will be his toughest race.

BETTING VALUE: A Derby win is likely out of reach, but Wonder Dean is one of the more interesting outsiders in a Derby field that lacks intriguing longshots.

SIRE: This is the first graded/group stakes winner by Dee Majesty, who won the Japanese 2000 Guineas and was third in the Japanese Derby. He is from the preeminent sireline in Japan, as he is by Triple Crown winner Deep Impact, who in turn is by the legendary Sunday Silence, the 1989 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner and Horse of the Year who has shaped Japan’s industry.

DAM: This is the first foal for Wonder Siang Praw, who won at up to 1 1/8 miles. Her dam, Wonder Stow Lily, won only at up to seven furlongs, but she found the winner’s circle 13 times in her career. Although Wonder Siang Praw was foaled in Japan, like Dee Majesty she hails from a U.S. Horse of the Year, as her sire, Wonder Acute, a stakes winner from ages 3 to 9, is by 1999 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Charismatic.

OUTLOOK: The class of this family is still debatable, as Wonder Dean is the first stakes winner for both his sire and dam, who still have much to prove. However, this is an iron-tough family with some familiar U.S. names scattered throughout both sides of the pedigree, and the distance should be within Wonder Dean’s scope.

STRENGTHS: There are some similarities between this horse and last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty. Each horse is trained by a Mott, with Incredibolt conditioned by Bill’s son Riley. Both horses also achieved victories in the Street Sense Stakes during their 2-year-old seasons. Their paths diverge from there, but that affinity for the Churchill Downs surface could prove valuable. Incredibolt punched his ticket to the Derby with an eye-catching win in the Virginia Derby, where he sprinted through the final eighth of a mile in a swift 12.02 seconds.

WEAKNESSES: He returns to Churchill having not raced for seven weeks since his Virginia Derby victory, a highly unconventional path to the Derby. He is also lacking a solid effort around two turns this year, owing to his perplexing last-place result in the Holy Bull. Accordingly, there are trust issues with this colt given his dismal start to the season. His top Beyer of 88 is lower than all of the other major contenders, and he has never beaten the quality of competition that he’s going to face on the first Saturday in May.

BETTING VALUE: This colt’s résumé is that of longshot. While he might attract support based on some of those parallels with last year’s winner, his lack of proven class, inconsistent form, and seven-week layoff should make bettors demand a price around 30-1. 

SIRE: Bolt d’Oro was a precocious multiple Grade 1 winner at 2, and he continued to be a force early in his 3-year-old season. He was the leading freshman sire of his class, and his runners have continued to show consistency, if not, necessarily, elite Grade 1 talent. Interestingly, some of his longer-tenured runners have been on turf, such as Major Dude, a graded stakes winner at ages 2, 3, and 4, who is still in training this year. Bolt d’Oro’s daughter Drexel Hill was second in last year’s Kentucky Oaks on a sloppy track.

DAM: Sapphire Spitfire seems to be a solid middle-distance influence. She won at a mile and 70 yards and is the dam of five winners from as many starters, three of those at a mile or beyond. In addition to Incredibolt, she has produced Fire On Time, a multiple graded stakes-placed sprinter who won at up to a mile. This is the extended family of Hall of Famer A.P. Indy, a clear stamina presence.

OUTLOOK: Incredibolt’s family is well suited for, at the very least, middle distances. Turf and wet-track ability are intriguing wild cards. The dirt track at Churchill Downs often plays well to turf-type pedigrees, particularly if wet.

STRENGTHS: He earned high praise from his Hall of Fame trainer, Bill Mott, following an April 20 workout at Churchill Downs. “Looked like a Sovereignty work to me when he worked two weeks before the Derby,” Mott said. Mott won last year’s race with Sovereignty, the eventual 2025 Horse of the Year. Chief Wallabee covered five furlongs in 1:00.01 and came home his final threeeighths in a blazing 34.94 seconds. The move came in blinkers, equipment he will add for the Kentucky Derby. Chief Wallabee was a close third last out in the Florida Derby and had previously won his maiden over The Puma, who came back to win the Tampa Bay Derby.

WEAKNESSES: He is giving up racing experience to most of his rivals as he has made just three career starts. He has also never raced in a large field and the one he will face in the Kentucky Derby will be robust, likely drawing the maximum of 20 horses. He was close in a pair of Kentucky Derby preps, but didn’t win any of those races.

BETTING VALUE: The recent work had tongues wagging, which might might make him an even lower price than first anticipated. The unknown here is the depth of his talent. For that reason he has to be considered both a win candidate and a runner to use in the exotics.

SIRE: Constitution, by Tapit, was a multiple Grade 1 winner of the Florida Derby and Donn Handicap. His first crop was led by classic performer Tiz the Law, who in the pandemic-shuffled 2020 season won the Belmont at 1 1/8 miles around one turn, won the Travers at the classic 1 1/4 miles, and was second in the September Kentucky Derby, also at 1 1/4 miles. While clearly a standout at two turns, Tiz the Law also won the Grade 1 Champagne at a one-turn mile at 2. Many of Constitution’s best runners have shown both brilliance around one turn and the stamina to go longer. A prime example is classic-placed Mindframe, winner of the Grade 1 Churchill Downs at seven furlongs and Grade 1 Stephen Foster at nine furlongs last year.

DAM: Chief Wallabee is the first starter for unraced A La Lucie, who is from a family that seemingly slants toward sprints. She is out of Gloryzapper, winner of the Grade 3 L.A. Woman at 6 1/2 furlongs. Gloryzapper is a full sister to Superstition, a stakes winner and graded-placed sprinting on turf. Classic sire Medaglia d’Oro is the broodmare sire of Grade/Group 1 winners, including Eclipse Award champion National Treasure, winner of the 2023 Preakness Stakes and Grade 1 winner of the Pegasus World Cup and Metropolitan Handicap the following year.

OUTLOOK: With Constitution one of the leading heirs to classic sire Tapit, this family is almost a pure case of breeding stamina over speed.

STRENGTHS: Few horses in the Derby lineup are more consistent than Silent Tactic. He has never finished out of the exacta while matching or slightly bettering his previous Beyer Speed Figures through the prep season. The Derby will mark the fifth start of his 3-year-old campaign, so he’s coming into the race with a robust foundation. He won the Southwest with a terrific late burst after being held up at the back early. The Kentucky Derby tends to feature fast paces, and his running style should suit the typical race flow.

WEAKNESSES: His top Beyer of 91 is hardly the slowest in the field, but it still puts him a notch below several top contenders who have already achieved triple-digit numbers. Furthermore, his progress from early in the season seemed to stall in the Arkansas Derby, where he had no answer for the stretch kick produced by Derby favorite Renegade. His trainer, Mark Casse, is winless from 11 Kentucky Derby starters, and his jockey, Cristian Torres, has never ridden in this race before.

BETTING VALUE: Sandman, Casse’s entrant in last year’s Kentucky Derby, was arguably the most overbet horse in the race due to his association with social-media influencer Griffin Johnson, who also has some involvement with Silent Tactic. Based on his race record, Silent Tactic is a mid-tier contender whose fair win value is somewhere in the range of 30-1. He might offer more wagering appeal as an underneath option in exotics.

SIRE: Classic-placed Tacitus inherited every bit of stamina to be gained from sire Tapit, the most successful stallion in the modern history of the Belmont Stakes, and his champion dam Close Hatches. That pairing has produced, among others, Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Scylla. Tacitus was a grinding runner who earned more than $4.2 million, including graded stakes victories in the Grade 2 Suburban at 1 1/4 miles. This is his first crop, and Silent Tactic is his first stakes performer, but that’s not a knock. His runners were not expected to be precocious, and more should be seen from them this year and next.

DAM: This is the first foal for Magical Sign, a half-sister to Moraz, who was graded stakes-placed around both one and two turns. Their dam, Malvinia, is a full sister to Malibu Moon, a classic sire generally regarded as a stamina source. Magical Sign is by Gun Runner, and while it remains to be seen how he will perform as a broodmare sire, his appearance in this pedigree will likely benefit two-turn endeavors.

OUTLOOK: While Tacitus wasn’t brilliant and never broke through with a Grade 1 win, he always showed up, particularly at longer distances. Without a female family poking holes in that, it stands to reason that Silent Tactic should relish added ground.

STRENGTHS: Potente lost the pace battle, and war, in the Santa Anita Derby. But his runner-up finish served its purpose for conditioning. The race tightened up the three-start colt and validated the sentiment from his San Felipe victory two starts back. That is, Potente runs best pressing the pace rather than dueling like in the Santa Anita Derby. Hopes were high from the time Potente was purchased as a yearling for $2.4 million. When his work pattern as a summer 2-year-old was interrupted, Bob Baffert pointed him to winter at Santa Anita. Potente has not disappointed – debut win, Grade 2 win, and Grade 1 runner-up. Potente has speed, but he is rateable. Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby seven times, including subsequently disqualified Medina Spirit. Based on Beyer Speed Figures, each start by Potente has been faster than the start before. Another forward move puts him in the picture.

WEAKNESSES: Having started only three times, Potente will be among the least seasoned in the Kentucky Derby. His jockey, Juan Hernandez, consistently ranks as the top rider in California, but Potente will be his first mount in the Kentucky Derby.

BETTING VALUE: Having lost his prep, Potente has attracted minimal attention. From a parimutuel perspective, that is good, as Potente could slip through the cracks. Similar to Santa Anita Derby winner So Happy, Potente offers value at 10-1 or higher. The price might be available.

SIRE: Seven-time reigning leading sire Into Mischief can do it all and has had tremendous Kentucky Derby success that puts him near the record books. He is the sire of 2020 Horse of the Year Authentic, winner of the pandemic-delayed Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic; of 2021 official Derby winner Mandaloun; and of last year’s Horse of the Year Sovereignty, who won the Derby, Belmont, and Travers, all at 10 furlongs. Another Derby win would give Into Mischief the all-time record, and he has a number of chances this year with Potente, Commandment, and Renegade.

DAM: Sweet Sting was stakes-placed on turf, befitting her lineage. Her dam is Eclipse Award champion grass mare Perfect Sting, who won the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf – at 1 3/8 miles – and eight other graded stakes, including Grade 1 scores in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup and Garden City. Potente is the first stakes horse out of Sweet Sting, dam of three winners from four starters. Broodmare sire Awesome Again adds additional stamina.

OUTLOOK: This is a solid two-turn pedigree, and a female family heavy on turf class shouldn’t scare one off. Turf and synthetic performers such as Animal Kingdom, Barbaro, Paddy O’Prado, Dullahan, Rich Strike, Two Phil’s, Idiomatic, and others have run strongly on the Churchill Downs dirt over the years – particularly when it’s wet, an ability Into Mischief also imparts.

STRENGTHS: Emerging Market immediately threw himself into the conversation by winning his career debut impressively and in a fast time. He was not only thrown right onto the Derby trail for his second start, but he ran in the prep that is contested over the longest distance, and he handled it well while scoring a determined head victory in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. He still has a lot of room to improve upon the talent he has shown in the first two starts, and he also has proven himself to be a willing fighter in the stretch.

WEAKNESSES: He didn’t start racing until February and only has two starts under his belt. If there is any race that can be lost due to a lack of experience, it is the Kentucky Derby, where clean trips from start to finish are the exception rather than the norm. He only earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure winning his prep for the Derby, and he is going to have to run a lot faster to win the big one.

BETTING VALUE: Despite his talent, there is plenty working against Emerging Market in a race like the Kentucky Derby. His preliminary odds of 15-1 are about as low as one should consider taking.

SIRE: Candy Ride is one of the nation’s perennial leading sires – and one of the most successful stallions to have never sired an American classic winner. The closest he has come was when Gun Runner, who did his best work later on to be 2017 Horse of the Year, was third in the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Though versatile, Candy Ride is generally a stamina source. Gun Runner and fellow Eclipse Award champion Shared Belief were both Grade 1 winners at 1 1/4 miles, joined by the likes of Dubai World Cup winner Hit Show and Santa Anita Handicap winner Misremembered. Gun Runner and another son, Twirling Candy, have both sired American classic winners.

DAM: Emerging Market is the first starter for Wild Empress, who is by Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker. Wild Empress is a half-sister to champion She Be Wild, the star in an otherwise lighter female family. She Be Wild had Grade 1 ability at two turns, winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and finishing third in the Ashland at 3.

OUTLOOK: It would be no surprise to see Candy Ride add an American classic winner to his résumé. The stamina ability is certainly there, and Wild Empress does not seem the type to under

STRENGTHS: Comes off a very game effort in the Louisiana Derby, missing by just a head after dueling for the lead from the start. Those were some fast splits, and he refused to yield late. The resulting Beyer is the best figure he has ever posted and his figures have improved with each of his last three starts. He obviously has the speed to get early position but he has also shown that he can take back off the pace and make one run, and that versatility gives him some options as he tries to work out a trip.

WEAKNESSES: His Beyers don’t match up well with the top contenders in this field, even that last one, which was the best figure he has ever put up. His only win outside of his maiden victory came in the Sunland Derby, and the five rivals he defeated in that race weren’t at the level of these runners, with Express Kid, a horse he was all out to beat, coming into that race off a career-best 85 Beyer.

BETTING VALUE: Likely north of 30-1 in the betting but it’s difficult to envision a scenario where he wins this race – he’s likely to be close from the start given his recent success with forward trip, and with that type of scenario he figures to have trouble lasting at this extended distance, and running the best race of his career in terms of Beyers

SIRE: Pavel was a very useful horse who broke through to win the Grade 1 Stephen Foster. He also finished second in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic and was third in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. The well-traveled runner earned more than $2 million and has done his best with limited opportunities while standing in California. As of mid-April, with his first four crops of racing age on the track, Pavel had just 39 starters. However, he has 22 winners, a solid strike rate. He is the sire of two stakes winners – Pavlovian and Madison Rae, a restricted stakes winner at a mile. However, outside of those two, his progeny generally skew toward sprints, with an average winning distance of 6.13 furlongs.

DAM: Mandy’s Grace, out of the quick multiple graded stakeswinning sprinter Magicalmysterycat, outran those genetics to get her only win at a mile. From her three winners, Pavlovian is the first to break through beyond a mile. Magicalmysterycat is out of Nannerl, a multiple graded stakes winner from seven furlongs to 1 1/16 miles who put together a record of 38-10-7-10 from ages 2 to 7.

OUTLOOK: While this family is light on graded stakes production, it is long on consistency. Pavlovian should continue on as a useful racehorse for a number of years, but both sides of his family raise real questions about his true route ability beyond middle distances

STRENGTHS: Six Speed’s strength is speed. The Dubai-based colt set or pressed the pace in all five starts, winning three of his last four. His recent runner-up finish in the UAE Derby at Meydan was his first try around two turns, and the best race of his career. He finished six lengths clear of third. Assuming a clean start in the Kentucky Derby, Six Speed will be involved in the early pace. Based on speed figures, Six Speed is getting better. According to ThoroGraph, Six Speed has made a forward move each successive start. (Beyer Speed Figures are not calculated for Dubai.)

WEAKNESSES: Six Speed has been based in Dubai all winter. He has never shipped for a race, nor has he started anywhere other than Meydan. When he gets to Kentucky, everything will be new to Six Speed – surface, crowd, noise, and 19 rivals. Dubai-based runners have had minimal success in the Kentucky Derby. Japanese star Forever Young prepped in Dubai and missed by a head in the 2024 Derby, but 20 other Derby runners whose prep was in Dubai did not hit the board in the Derby. Six Speed will be the first Derby starter for Dubai trainer Bhupat Seemar.

BETTING VALUE: Six Speed is unlikely to attract significant support. If he somehow gets loose on the lead, perhaps a forwardly placed upset is not completely out of the question, but it’s a reach. Six Speed would be worth betting at 30-1 or higher.

SIRE: Not This Time, the leading heir to Giant’s Causeway in the United States, is a phenomenally versatile sire. In a single year, he was represented by crack turf sprinter Cogburn and dirt marathon specialist Next. Not This Time’s top runners on dirt include 2022 Kentucky Derby and Preakness runner-up Epicenter, who went on to lock up an Eclipse Award by winning the Travers; this year’s Dubai World Cup winner Magnitude; and four Grade 1 winners around one turn. His turf standouts include Eclipse champion Up to the Mark, who won at up to 1 1/4 miles; Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner Cy Fair; and three other Grade 1 winners. Overall, the average winning distance of his progeny is 7.2 furlongs, a strong figure in a statistical category that’s influenced by the preponderance of sprints in the United States.

DAM: Browse won at 1 1/16 miles on turf and was stakes-placed in the Our Mims at a middle distance on dirt. She is the dam of Pipit, a stakes-placed sprinter on Tapeta. Second dam Daydreaming, a multiple graded stakes winner at up to 1 1/8 miles on dirt, produced two long-winded Grade 1 winners – turf standout Imagining and steeplechaser Awakened. This is the family of Eclipse champion Rhythm and Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, among other standouts.

OUTLOOK: Six Speed has raised stamina questions with his performances, and Not This Time has produced stellar sprinters. However, this very deep Phipps female family screams distance ability.

STRENGTHS: Further Ado’s victory in his final Derby prep resulted in a visually impressive blowout and a 106 Beyer that makes him fastest coming into the race. He was also a graded stakes winner over the Churchill Downs main track as a juvenile. He races for one of the top trainers in the game and is by Gun Runner, from the female family of six-time Grade 1 route winner Beautiful Pleasure and Arlington Million winner Mecke, suggesting that he is going to handle added distance.

WEAKNESSES: Further Ado has started six times so far and has run two races that make him a major Derby threat. Both of those efforts came over the Keeneland main track. While he did win the Kentucky Jockey Club over the Churchill surface as a 2-year-old, he only earned an 82 Beyer for that effort, regressing from the 98 he earned at Keeneland in his prior start. He also loses his regular rider, Irad Ortiz Jr., to one of his main Derby rivals and will have a new jockey on Saturday.

BETTING VALUE: Further Ado could be considered the horse to beat on the way into the Kentucky Derby, considering the fact that he is fastest on the way in and already proven over the Churchill surface, but he is unlikely to be the favorite at post time of the race. The closer he gets to 10-1 odds, the more attractive he becomes

SIRE: Gun Runner won the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic to emphatically lock up Horse of the Year honors, and the six-time Grade 1 winner was inducted into the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility. As a stallion, he has also been spectacular, setting a freshman earnings record and now perennially ranking among the nation’s top three sires. Although Gun Runner is the sire of a number of Grade 1-winning sprinters – including champion Echo Zulu, a top-flight performer around both one and two turns – his progeny have, overall, inherited his stamina and ability to improve with experience. His son Sierra Leone was second in the 2024 Kentucky Derby, third in the Belmont, won the Breeders’ Cup Classic to lock up an Eclipse, and then was a Grade 1 winner again last year at 4. Gun Runner is also the sire of 2022 Preakness winner Early Voting. The average winning distance for his runners is a strong 7.46 furlongs.

DAM: Sky Dreamer, second in the Grade 3 Arlington Oaks at nine furlongs, has produced five winners, including Dubai group winner Kimbear. Further Ado is her only runner to win beyond a mile. Sky Dreamer is a half-sister to Dream Dancing, winner of the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks. Their second dam is Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner and champion Beautiful Pleasure, a half-sister to Mecke, a Grade 1-winning router on both dirt and turf.

OUTLOOK: Further Ado has a solid and classy pedigree for this task.

STRENGTHS: It all starts in the breeding shed, and Golden Tempo has one of the better pedigrees in this crop. He is by Curlin, and his Phipps female family has produced horses like eighttime Grade 1 winner Heavenly Prize and distance-loving Grade 1 winner Dancing Forever. Golden Tempo impressed winning his debut sprinting before stretching out to win a Grade 3 a month later, and his speed figures have never taken a backward step after four starts.

WEAKNESSES: He simply isn’t fast enough to win the Kentucky Derby at this point. His top Beyer is an 88, and he earned that figure while failing to seriously threaten in one of the slower prep races. He has shown a lack of early speed that has left him at the mercy of pace and trip since his debut, and the addition of blinkers for his last start did not make much of a difference in his running style.

BETTING VALUE: Golden Tempo’s form suggests that he is a cut below the top 3-year-olds right now, and he should be one of the bigger prices in the Kentucky Derby. He is one to consider using underneath in multi-horse wagers

SIRE: Curlin was a two-time Horse of the Year who raced with distinction through the 2007 Triple Crown, with a victory in the Preakness Stakes. His other major wins include the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic and 2008 Dubai World Cup. He has successfully passed his stamina on as a stallion, with three winners of Triple Crown races – 2013 Belmont winner Palace Malice, 2016 Preakness winner Exaggerator, and 2025 Preakness winner Journalism. He is the sire of too many other major two-turn dirt winners to name in this space, including Malathaat, who won the Kentucky Oaks in 2021. Overall, the average winning distance of his progeny is 7.68 furlongs, a very strong figure in an American racing scene with a preponderance of sprints.

DAM: The consistent Carrumba showed stamina, with her biggest win coming in the Grade 3 Top Flight at 1 1/8 miles. Golden Tempo is the first winner for this daughter of leading broodmare sire Bernardini. Carrumba’s dam, Castanet, is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Dancing Forever. Also appearing under Carrumba’s first three dams are Hall of Famer Heavenly Prize, Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Dancing Spree, and a host of other Grade 1 winners, including Finder’s Fee, the third dam of Horse of the Year Flightline.

OUTLOOK: The colt’s purple pedigree, by a Hall of Famer and noted stamina source, and from a deep Phipps family, indicates he’s up to the task of a classics campaign

STRENGTHS: Beyers on the rise coming into the 2026 Kentucky Derby, with the 94 he posted in the win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks the best figure of his career. He has never run a poor race and he has won three of his last five starts, running second in the other two tries, including a narrow loss two back in the Battaglia. He has a proven stretch kick and based on his running style and his pedigree he should relish the extra distance.

WEAKNESSES: This will mark his first-ever start on the dirt, which is certainly a concern. He has yet to post a Beyer that’s good enough to win this race, as several runners in this lineup have posted better figures. His lack of tactical speed will mean he’ll need to work out a favorable trip, perhaps easier said than done against 19 rivals. He has yet to face a field of this caliber, so for him to win this he’ll need to fall into a clean trip and beat the best group he has ever seen while putting up the best Beyer of his life on a surface he has never tried.

BETTING VALUE: Should be somewhere between 15-1 and 25-1, and he’s worth considering for inclusion in exotics given his proven stretch kick and the fact that he’s coming into the race in top form. – Kenny Peck

SIRE: Liam’s Map, from the classic Unbridled line, scored Grade 1 victories in the 2015 Woodward and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He is a half-brother to the versatile leading sire Not This Time and has displayed versatility himself. Liam’s Map is the sire of dirt Grade 1 winners Basin, Burnham Square, Juju’s Map, Napoleon Solo, and Wicked Whisper and turf Grade 1 winners Colonel Liam and Deterministic. The majority of these have scored their major victories at a mile or longer.

DAM: Callmethesqueeze also displayed versatility, winning from 6 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles, including three stakes scores at Calder – the Sweettrickydancer at a mile on dirt, the Judy’s Red Shoes at 1 1/16 miles on turf, and the Hollywood Wildcat at 7 1/2 furlongs on turf. She is the dam of five winners from seven starters, led by multiple graded stakes winner Power Squeeze, who won the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes in 2024. Callmethesqueeze, also the dam of stakes-winning dirt sprinter Call On Mischief, is out of Grade 3-placed Mop Squeezer, a three-time stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles on dirt. Mop Squeezer also produced warhorse Royal Squeeze, who won 19 of 85 starts, including four minor stakes at up to a mile, and Squeezer’s Palace, a stakes winner at nine furlongs against Ohio-breds.

OUTLOOK: Fulleffort is following the significant Tapeta-toChurchill path and has a stronger dirt pedigree than some of the others who have found success along this route in recent years. – Nicole Russo

STRENGTHS: He displayed excellent Tapeta form at Turfway when landing his debut and the 1 1/16-mile John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, in which he edged out Fulleffort for the victory – that rival subsequently won the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks convincingly with a 94 Beyer Speed Figure. The Battaglia followed a troubled fifth in the Leonatus Stakes, and he can rebound off a subpar showing. He is versatile in terms of running style, which is an asset to his rider, given his immense size.

WEAKNESSES: He came up empty after vying for the lead in his lone dirt start in the Grade 1 Blue Grass, and his ability to excel on dirt in competition is obviously in question. He has never exceeded 84 on the Beyer Speed Figure scale and is simply too slow to make an impact in the Kentucky Derby from a speed figure standpoint. His trainer’s lone Kentucky Derby starter finished up the track.

BETTING VALUE: Longshots coming out of Turfway occasionally make an impact in the Kentucky Derby. Once should consider him to be fair value at 50-1.

SIRE: This is the first crop for Volatile, who hailed from a line of prominent sprinters. His dam, stakes-winning sprinter Melody Lady, is out of Grade 1 Ballerina winner Lady Tak. He lived up to that lineage, winning the Grade 1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt sprinting. His runners, such as Southwest winner Speed King and Indiana Derby winner Tip Top Thomas, have shown speed but have thus far been able to go middle distances.

DAM: This is the first runner for Kelly Bag, who was unplaced. Second dam Birkin Bag was a Group 1 winner in Brazil at 10 furlongs, and Great White’s fourth dam was Brazilian Horse of the Year Sweet Eternity, who won at up to 12 furlongs. Classic sire Uncle Mo has emerged as a stellar broodmare sire, with Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna and Preakness winner Journalism among those out of his daughters.

OUTLOOK: Great White, a massive and impressive May foal who is still developing, covers much ground with his strides, but it is too soon to say if he will finish, with the leggy appearance of a distance horse, with the influence of Uncle Mo close up, or the muscular physique of a sprinter. His sire brings raw speed and ability, as well as dirt form, while deep in his female family the stamina there cannot be discounted.

STRENGTHS: Ocelli brings a strong foundation of route races to the table, as five of his six starts have come at 1 1/16 miles or more. He’s run twice at 1 1/8 miles, a rare credential among the prospective field for this year’s Kentucky Derby. Ocelli has an experience edge on most pointing for the race, as his starts have come at five different tracks. They include Churchill Downs, where he ran third in a maiden special weight sprint when launching his career last November. Ocelli’s most recent out was a strong, closing third in the Wood Memorial. He could be closer to the pace in the Kentucky Derby than he found himself in the Wood, as he had trouble in the Aqueduct prep.

WEAKNESSES: He’s a maiden. He’s also never posted a Beyer Speed Figure above 81 and there are five probables for the Kentucky Derby who have earned Beyers of 100 or higher. In the Sam F. Davis, he was beaten 9 1/4 lengths by Renegade, who went on to win the Arkansas Derby and is considered the early Derby favorite. As one who bids from off the pace, Ocelli will need hot fractions and clear sailing in the potential field of 20.

BETTING VALUE: He could start as the longest price in the race. For believers, the hope is Ocelli’s strong foundation for 1 1/4 miles will be picking off rivals down the long stretch at Churchill

SIRE: Connect won 6 of 8 starts, including the two-turn Pennsylvania Derby when it was a Grade 2 event and then the Grade 1 Cigar Mile around one turn. His runners are led by multimillionaire Rattle N Roll, whose 10 stakes wins include the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity and Grade 2 Clark. Last year, his daughter Forever After All was a multiple graded stakes winner at 1 1/2 miles on turf. Overall, Connect shows the stamina of his sire, Curlin, who is a powerful classic influence, along with several of his sons. Curlin’s son Good Magic is the sire of Kentucky Derby winner Mage and Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch. Another son, Keen Ice, sired Derby winner Rich Strike.

DAM: Zalia is a daughter of Scat Daddy, who sired Triple Crown winner Justify but who also is quite versatile. Zalia’s lone win came in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden race on turf. She has not yet produced a winner, as Ocelli will come into the Derby as a maiden. Zalia is out of turf Grade 2-placed Vivo Per Lei, the dam of Pipeline, who finished third in the Grade 1 Forego.

OUTLOOK: The turf ability in this family is not a bad thing, but Connect will need to work to balance out a sprint-type female family, and one that is lighter on major accomplishments in the first few generations. Ocelli would be a breakthrough in the Derby, in more ways than one

STRENGTHS: With the addition of blinkers, Robusta gave Potente a run for his money when a close and much improved second in the Grade 2 San Felipe. Potente subsequently ran a deceptively good second in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, while Robusta earned ascending Beyer Speed Figures before getting fried in a speed duel in the Santa Anita Derby and is certainly better than his distant seventh-place finish would indicate. Trainer Doug O’Neill has won the Kentucky Derby twice, and Calumet Farm has won it a record eight times.

WEAKNESSES: Robusta has never cracked 90 on the Beyer Speed Figure scale and is probably too slow to make a significant impact in the Kentucky Derby. The biggest field in which he raced against in Southern California was seven horses, and the added traffic in the Kentucky Derby might be to his detriment. Despite his stamina-oriented pedigree, 1 1/4 miles seems beyond his optimum distance.

BETTING VALUE: At least 60-1 would be fair on a runner with connections who have had no shortage of success in the Kentucky Derby

SIRE: Accelerate was a Grade 2 winner at both 3 and 4 but really blossomed routing as an older horse. His six graded stakes wins as a 5-year-old included four Grade 1s at 1 1/4 miles – the Santa Anita Handicap, Gold Cup, Pacific Classic, and Breeders’ Cup Classic. He retired with earnings of more than $6.6 million. From his first four crops of racing age – none of the pensioned stallion’s small crop of 2-year-olds has yet started – he has just one graded winner, Sugar Fish, who took the Grade 2 Zenyatta at 1 1/16 miles. Surprisingly for a horse of Accelerate’s distance capability, the average winning distance of his progeny is less than seven furlongs.

DAM: Urbane Legend is regally bred but was unplaced in her own racing career. She is the dam of two winners from three starters, with Robusta joined by Legend’s Song, a winner at seven furlongs on dirt. Urbane Legend is by leading sire Into Mischief and out of millionaire Urbane, a multiple Grade 1 winner at up to 1 1/4 miles. She produced multiple graded stakes-winning millionaire Suave, who also won at 1 1/4 miles, and stakes winner Worldly, a winner at 1 1/2 miles.

OUTLOOK: Although Accelerate hasn’t lit the world on fire with top-level routers, both sides of Robusta’s pedigree have plenty of grinding distance ability and suggest continued improvement with maturity.

STRENGTHS: After a slow start to his career, he developed an effective speed style going long that he used to graduate at Fair Grounds with an 87 Beyer Speed Figure on March 7. He ran a deceptively good race April 11 in the Grade 3 Lexington at Keeneland, during which he fought for the lead along the dull inside part of the track before fading late to third. Trainer Dallas Stewart has a history of sending out live longshots in major races, having won the 2006 Kentucky Oaks with Lemons Forever at 47-1 and finishing second in the Kentucky Derby with both Golden Soul (2013) and Commanding Curve (2014).

WEAKNESSES: He has just a maiden victory to his credit from five starts and has not cracked 90 on the Beyer Speed Figure scale around two turns, which suggests that he’s too slow for the task at hand. He appears to be a need-the-lead type when routing, and there is no shortage of other speed in the Kentucky Derby lineup.

BETTING VALUE: Stewart’s Kentucky Derby runners-up were both deep closers. Approximately 100-1 would be fair value on this speed horse who will break from the far outside if he gets in.

SIRE: Bolt d’Oro was a precocious multiple Grade 1 winner at 2, and he continued to be a force early in his 3-year-old season. He was the leading freshman sire in his class, and his runners have continued to show consistency while not necessarily elite Grade 1 level. Interestingly, some of his longer-tenured runners have been on turf, such as Major Dude, a graded stakes winner at ages 2, 3, and 4, and still in training this year. Bolt d’Oro’s daughter Drexel Hill was second in last year’s Kentucky Oaks on a sloppy track.

DAM: Lemon de Oro, by Belmont Stakes winner and versatile sire and broodmare sire Lemon Drop Kid, maxed out at a winning distance of seven furlongs. She finished third in the Moccasin as a juvenile going that distance. The mare is the dam of two winners from as many starters, both graded stakes-placed at two turns. Corona de Oro is joined by Golden Alchemist, who was third in the 2022 Tampa Bay Derby and who won at up to 1 1/8 miles. Lemon de Oro’s dam is a half-sister to multiple graded stakes-winning turf mare Chelsey Flower, whose biggest victory came in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl at 1 1/4 miles.

OUTLOOK: With the various distance successes in this family, Corona de Oro appears well-suited to, at the very least, middle distances. He is one of several in this field with a good bit of turf ability on the page