Race 13 |1 3/16m | 7:01 PM ET | 3yo | $1.5M
STRENGTHS: There is a chance he could control the pace. He put up quick fractions when he won his debut in a maiden special weight sprint and has turned in consecutive bullet drills in his final prep work for the Preakness. He adds a set of blinkers and he won his maiden in the equipment – over an eventual Grade 1 winner in Practical Move. This one makes a rare start outside of Southern California and ran well last fall when third to eventual champion Forte in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland. National Trea- sure’s trainer, Bob Baffert, has won a co-record seven runnings of the Preakness.
WEAKNESSES: Distance is a question mark. He has not yet won around two turns. In fact, his lone win to date came at 6 1/2 furlongs. The start was against maidens, so he’s also seeking his first win at the graded level – although all of his races since have come in graded stakes and he’s run well against some notable rivals. There is speed to his outside, and depending on how things go at the break, there’s a chance he could get hooked. The pressure would come over the longest distance at which he’s raced.
BETTING VALUE: Excellent. He likely will go off as the third choice to Kentucky Derby winner Mage and that one could find himself in the unenviable position of having to run down the South- ern California speedster. A win candidate and a must-use in the exotics.
SIRE: Quality Road had brilliance that he could carry around two turns. He won a number of one-turn events, including the Metropolitan Handicap, but also set a track record winning the Florida Derby at nine furlongs. He has become one of the nation’s elite sires, with his record including Kentucky Oaks winner and champion Abel Tasman, and additional champions in juveniles Caledonia Road and Corniche. Quality Road’s sire, Elusive Quality, sired 2004 dual classic winner Smarty Jones.
DAM: Treasure is the dam of three winners from four start- ers. Joining National Treasure are Ultimate, who won at up to six furlongs, and Treasury, who won at up to 1 1/16 miles. Both those runners are by Speightstown, a son of Gone West, the grandsire of Quality Road.
Treasure is a half-sister to four stakes winners, and this is the extended family of Grade 1 winners Leofric, Telling, and Well Chosen.
Medaglia d’Oro, long known as an outstanding filly sire, is begin- ning to make his mark as a broodmare sire. He is represented in that regard by Grade 1 winners Competitionofideas, Olympiad, Rachel’s Valentina, Rock Fall, and Santin.
OUTLOOK: National Treasure’s extremely classy pedigree seems best geared to middle distances. The Preakness is the short- est of the three Triple Crown races.
STRENGTHS: Chase the Chaos is up against it. It is a reach to identify the Preakness outsider’s “strengths,” but here goes. Chase the Chaos is the co-winningest Preakness entrant, with three victories. His lone stakes victory was the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate, a race that produced the 2021 Preakness winner. Rombauer won the El Camino Real, placed in the Blue Grass, and won the Preakness. Another potential attribute that applies to Chase the Chaos is an overachieving history. In two stakes last year, he finished third at 51-1 and second at 65-1.
WEAKNESSES: Chase the Chaos enters in dubious form. His two recent starts were seventh- and eighth-place finishes against much easier than he meets in the Preakness. His career-high 83 Beyer is far short of the triple-digit par for the Preakness. At this point, Chase the Chaos is not fast enough.
Chase the Chaos earned a fees-paid berth in the Preakness by winning the ungraded El Camino Real, a winter race on a synthetic surface. He got drubbed in his only start on fast dirt. Chase the Chaos enters the Preakness as the lowest-rated on figures, least- qualified on class, and entirely uncertain on current form.
BETTING VALUE: The highest Preakness win payoff came in 1975 when Master Derby paid $48.80 for $2. Chase the Chaos is likely to start at higher odds. Based on his recent starts, there is no appar- ent reason to wager on Chase the Chaos. Fair value is 100-1.
SIRE: Australian Group 1-winning juvenile Astern, a son of Medaglia d’Oro, reverse shuttled to Kentucky early in his career. The majority of his career stakes winners have come in the South- ern Hemisphere, where he is finding moderate route success early on. He is represented by Caulfield Guineas winner Golden Mile and Australasian Oaks winner Affaire a Suivre. In the United States, his best runner to date is Grade 2 Miss Grillo winner Sail By.
DAM: Live the Moment, by classic sire Uncle Mo, did not win until age 5, and that came at seven furlongs on dirt. Chase the Chaos is her lone starter to date. There is no black type under the first or second dams on this page. The third dam, stakes-placed Miss Marta, produced the millionaire Mister Marti Gras, whose biggest victory came in the Grade 3 Ack Ack at Churchill Downs.
OUTLOOK: Although Chase the Chaos has plenty of dirt winners in his female family, this sireline is slanted toward turf. Pennsylvania-bred Chase the Chaos has scored all his wins to date on turf or synthetic surfaces.
STRENGTHS: Kentucky Derby winner Mage towers over the Preakness field, and it’s not even close. Mage is the only Grade 1 winner around two turns, and the fastest entrant based on his 105 Beyer Speed Figure in the Derby. His off-the-pace victory in Kentucky validated his Florida Derby runner-up finish. Mage is no one-hit wonder. He is a superior colt facing rivals who were not good enough to contest the Derby. Mage is the only Derby starter in the Preakness field.
No horse who has defeated Mage, or finished close to him, entered the Preakness. Furthermore, Derby winners are always formidable in the Preakness, right? Well, no. Only five of the last 15 Derby winners who wheeled back won the Preakness. The last 10 Derby-win, Preakness-loss runners include eight favorites. Statis- tical mishmash, perhaps. Mage seems a Preakness standout.
WEAKNESSES: It is odd to suggest Mage is pace-dependent, considering he led gate to wire in his debut sprint. However, Mage did not break well in three subsequent starts, including the Kentucky Derby, which unfolded at a fast pace and set up his rally. Mage is unlikely to get a similar pace scenario in the Preakness. It might not matter.
BETTING VALUE: The best horse is not necessarily the best bet. Mage is likely to start at underlaid odds. Fair value is 2-1 on Mage, an outstanding horse who benefited from an ideal setup in the Derby. Less than 2-1 is underlay territory, which is where Mage likely will land.
SIRE: Good Magic won the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to earn a divisional Eclipse Award championship. The following year, he won the Blue Grass Stakes and Haskell Invitational and along the way finished a fine second in the Kentucky Derby to Triple Crown winner Justify. The young stallion was among the leaders of the 2022 freshman sire class and has had breakout success this spring. In addition to Kentucky Derby winner Mage, he is the sire of five other graded stakes winners to date, including Grade 1 winner and Preakness candidate Blazing Sevens and Grade 3 winner Reincar- nate, 13th in the Kentucky Derby.
Good Magic is a son of two-time Horse of the Year and promi- nent classic sire Curlin, winner of the 2007 Preakness among other major events. Curlin is quickly making a mark as a sire of sires from the classic Smart Strike line. Good Magic is his second son with a first-crop Derby winner, following Keen Ice with Rich Strike last year.
DAM: Puca finished second in the Grade 2 Gazelle Stakes at 1 1/8 miles in the spring of her 3-year-old year. She continued to be a productive racemare for a number of years and won the Steve Pini Memorial at a mile and 70 yards on the Suffolk Downs turf as a 5-year-old. Mage is the second foal out of the mare. Her first, Gunning, was third in the seven-furlong Audubon Oaks last summer at Ellis.
STRENGTHS: He’s the lone horse in the field who has raced at Pimlico. The start came last May, when he was second in a maiden sprint and had his number put up – so on a technical point he’s perfect at Old Hilltop. He has natural speed and is drawn outside of perhaps his primary pace rival in National Treasure. He also is an experienced horse, with 12 starts and has two stakes wins to his credit. This is his home turf as he’s based in Maryland, with his recent workouts coming at Laurel.
WEAKNESSES: He has never won around two turns. He also has never run in a graded stakes race. The prep he exits went in modest time, and he finished fifth to Perform, a rival he must face again in the Preakness. Coffeewithchris will be coming off Lasix after racing on the diuretic his last three starts. In that time frame, he won the Miracle Wood at a mile at Laurel. The best Beyer Speed Figure of his career, an 88, lags 17 points behind the field’s best last- race Beyer, a 105 earned by Mage.
BETTING VALUE: Maryland-bred will be one of the longest shots on the board, but he’s admirable for his consistent nature. He also has more natural speed than a number of these and that could give him a tactical advantage. Those traits make him one to use underneath in the exotics.
SIRE: Ride On Curlin, an exciting maiden winner and Grade 1-placed as a juvenile, was second in the 2014 Preakness Stakes as a representative of classic sire Curlin. Coffeewithchris, from Ride On Curlin’s third crop, became his first stakes winner, breaking through from a handful of stakes-placed runners, including Uncle Boogie, a Grade 3-placed juvenile sprinter. Many of Ride On Curl- in’s runners have been precocious, as he was.
DAM: Coffeewithchris is the first winner out of Andiemac, a winner at up to 5 1/2 furlongs at ages 2 and 3. Andiemac’s dam and granddam each won at just beyond a mile, but this gelding is the only black type under his first three dams. His fourth dam is English stakes winner Teeming Shore, who won at up to six furlongs.
OUTLOOK: This Maryland-bred, who will attempt to stretch out for his state’s signature race, must outrun a pedigree slanted to sprints and precocity.
STRENGTHS: He’s a horse that wants a route of ground. He made his career debut at 1 1/16 miles and is coming off a stakes victory over 1 1/8 miles. There’s a chance of rain Saturday, and he ran two of the biggest races of his career on wet tracks, when second in both the Southwest and Rebel at Oaklawn. He’s a graded stakes veteran as he’s run in six such races. For his efforts, he ranks as this field’s second-highest earner behind Kentucky Derby winner Mage. Red Route One has a stunning closing kick and can take full advantage if National Treasure, Coffeewithchris, and First Mission make for an honest pace up front. His trainer, Steve Asmussen, has won two runnings of the Preakness.
WEAKNESSES: As a closer, he’s dependent on pace and there’s a chance National Treasure could control the tempo Saturday. Red Route One also must negotiate traffic as a closer. He will be coming off Lasix, a diuretic he raced on last out when winning the Bath House Row. He is picking up eight pounds off his last start, going from carrying 118 to 126.
BETTING VALUE: Good. He could be double-digit odds for the first time since January, when he ran a big second to strong favor- ite Arabian Knight in the Southwest at Oaklawn. His Beyer Speed Figures also stack up favorably, making him a win candidate and one to use in the exotics as he’s been a consistent sort as a rule.
SIRE: Gun Runner, the 2017 Horse of the Year, set an earnings record for a North American freshman sire with his first crop, led by 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and Eclipse Award champion Echo Zulu. That first crop went on to produce a classic winner in Preakness Stakes victor Early Voting. Gun Runner also is the sire of Grade 1 winners Cyberknife, Gunite, Society, and Taiba and graded stakes winners Pappacap, Runninsonofagun, Sixtythreecaliber, and Wicked Halo.
DAM: Red House, who was unraced, is by Tapit out of Grade 2 winner and Broodmare of the Year Fun House, making her a full sister to Eclipse champion Untapable, winner of the 2014 Kentucky Oaks, Breeders’ Cup Distaff, and more. Red House is a half-sister to Paddy O’Prado, third in the 2010 Kentucky Derby before going on to become a Grade 1 winner on turf. Red Run, a full brother to Red Route One, won the Bob Bork Texas Turf Mile and was third in the off-turf American Derby last year. He was most recently second by a neck in the Isaac Murphy Marathon at 1 1/2 miles on the Churchill Downs dirt.
OUTLOOK: Crossing Gun Runner over a Tapit mare has already, in a handful of years, proven a successful nick. For example, Soci- ety and Wicked Halo are both out of Tapit mares. Gun Runner brings both outstanding tactical speed and the ability to carry it a distance to the mix, and Tapit, the sire of four Belmont Stakes winners, adds additional stamina to the equation.
STRENGTHS: Comes into this Preakness Stakes off a career- best Beyer Speed Figure, earned in his stakes debut, in the Tesio. He was game to get up on the wire there, despite running into a good amount of trouble, including a slow start and traffic in the lane. He obviously has a decent late kick but he also has the speed to get early position, which should mean he’ll be able to work out a favorable trip. His figures have improved with each start since the return from the layoff, and he’s in the hands of Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey.
WEAKNESSES: His Beyers are too light for him to be considered a threat when it comes to speed figures, and while his latest was his best to date he was greatly aided by a most favorable race flow. He has never faced a field of this caliber and will race without Lasix on Saturday, which is a big consideration since his improvement in 2023 coincided with the addition of medication back in January.
BETTING VALUE: He’ll be among the longest prices on the board due to the fact that he has some of the lightest Beyers in the field. He isn’t likely to threaten here without a major step forward, and that makes most any price unattractive. Further, improvement doesn’t seem likely as he races without Lasix once again, and he has his work cut out for him if he’s going to hit the board
SIRE: Good Magic won the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to earn a divisional Eclipse Award championship. The following year, he won the Blue Grass and Haskell Invitational and along the way finished a fine second in the Kentucky Derby to Triple Crown winner Justify. The young stallion was among the leaders of the 2022 freshman sire class and has had breakout success this spring. He is the sire of five other graded stakes winners to date, led by Kentucky Derby winner Mage. Good Magic is a son of two-time Horse of the Year and prominent classic sire Curlin, winner of the 2007 Preakness. Curlin is quickly making a mark as a sire of sires from the classic Smart Strike line. Good Magic is his second son with a first-crop Derby winner, following Keen Ice with Rich Strike last year.
DAM: Jane Says is the dam of two winners from three starters, with Perform, last-out winner of Federico Tesio at 1 1/8 miles, joined by Fieldstone, a winner at a mile and 70 yards on dirt and a mile on turf. Jane Says, a half-sister to stakes-placed Sarah Her Highness, is a granddaughter of the blue hen Leslie’s Lady, the dam of Grade 1 winner and four-time reigning leading sire Into Mischief, Hall of Fame racemare Beholder, and the globe-trotting Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Mendelssohn. Beholder just became the dam of a graded stakes winner in her own right in Teena Ella.
OUTLOOK: Perform is by a young classic sire from a proven family, and Leslie’s Lady is one of the most influential mares in the modern stud book. Although his first dam is light on accom- plishment to date, there is quality and classic ability in the female family.
STRENGTHS: Won a Grade 1 as a 2-year-old with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure going a mile. His final start as a juvenile came at the Breeders’ Cup, where he improved again to finish fourth behind champion Forte. While he did not run well in his first start this year, he managed to rebound with a much improved performance when third in a fast running of the Blue Grass. He is still lightly raced for top connections, has a tactical running style, and his pedigree suggests that distance is not an issue.
WEAKNESSES: His signature win last year came over a sloppy track that his main rival may not have cared for. While he ran fine again in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he was never a real threat in that race after a good trip. His 3-year-old debut at Gulfstream in March was a disaster, and while he did improve in the Blue Grass, he was again no match for two more talented colts. He is going to have to improve on his top Beyer of 93 in order to contend in this race.
BETTING VALUE: With only seven other 3-year-olds entered, he will not get lost in the Preakness wagering despite having to improve to win the race. He is listed at 6-1 on the morning line for a trainer/jockey combination that always attracts money. The short field combined with the connections may make him unlikely to drift up into double-digit odds territory, which should be required before jumping in on him.
SIRE: Good Magic won the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to earn a divisional Eclipse Award championship. The following year, he won the Blue Grass Stakes and Haskell Invitational, and along the way finished a fine second in the Kentucky Derby to Triple Crown winner Justify. The young stallion was among the leaders of the 2022 freshman sire class and has had breakout success this spring. In addition to Blazing Sevens, a Grade 1 winner as a juvenile, he is the sire of five other graded stakes winners to date, led by Kentucky Derby winner Mage.
Good Magic is a son of two-time Horse of the Year and promi- nent classic sire Curlin, winner of the 2007 Preakness among other major events. Curlin is quickly making a mark as a sire of sires from the classic Smart Strike line. Good Magic is his second son with a first-crop Derby winner, following Keen Ice with Rich Strike last year.
DAM: Blazing Sevens is the first starter for Trophy Girl, who scored both her career wins at age 4 on synthetic at Turfway Park – those races coming at the middle distances of one mile and 1 1/16 miles. Trophy Girl is a half-sister to King David, winner of the Grade 1 Jamaica Handicap at 1 1/8 miles on turf; and to Bertsgold- enmissile, a stakes winner at seven furlongs on dirt. The third dam of Trophy Girl is Prix de l’Opera winner Horten- sia, who won at up to 1 5/16 miles. She is the dam of Group 3 winner Glacial Storm, who was second in the Epsom Derby and third in the Irish Derby while winning at up to 1 15/16 miles; and Cheshire Oaks winner Chaudennay who won at up to 1 9/16 miles.
OUTLOOK: Although his signature victory came at a one-turn mile, Blazing Sevens is from a sireline that has found additional classic success this year, and from a female family whose eclectic accomplishments also hint at inherited stamina.
STRENGTHS: He didn’t get started until February and has managed to come a long way in a short time. After a fast debut, he stretched out for his second start and ran to his distance pedigree while winning impressively. He made his stakes debut in the Grade 3 Lexington and improved while winning again over, among others, Disarm, who just ran fourth in the Kentucky Derby. He starts for top connections, and his tactical speed gives his rider options from the outside draw.
WEAKNESSES: He had a perfect trip in the Lexington win while never having to leave the rail after keeping close to an even pace. Even so, he worked hard to get by pacesetting Arabian Lion, who had made two prior starts versus stakes rivals and finished last both times. He is still light on experience, and the Preakness will be the longest race of his career by a furlong.
BETTING VALUE: In a Preakness field that lacks depth, First Mission is going to take money and is likely to be the second short- est price. His 5-2 odds on the morning line are about right consider- ing the competition, though he is an easy pass at anything shorter than that.
SIRE: Street Sense was the 2006 Eclipse Award champion juve- nile after winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He went on to win the 2007 Kentucky Derby and finish second to Curlin in the Preak- ness Stakes. As a stallion, his top runners include Maxfield and McKinzie, both of whom were Grade 1 winners as juveniles who went on to secure additional top-level wins as older horses. The majority of his other U.S. Grade 1 winners – Callback, Street Fancy, and Wedding Toast – also secured their signature wins at a mile or longer. He also is the sire of Aubby K and Sweet Reason, both of whom excelled around one turn.
DAM: This is the first winner out of Elude, whose only win came at a mile on turf. She, in turn, is out of Argentinian classic winner and champion Forty Marchanta. Medaglia d’Oro, long known as an outstanding filly sire, is beginning to make his mark as a brood- mare sire. He is represented in that regard by Grade 1 winners Competitionofideas, Olympiad, Rachel’s Valentina, Rock Fall, and Santin.
OUTLOOK: The pattern of development of some of Street Sense’s other runners, such as Maxfield and McKinzie, indicates that, while First Mission has already shown class as a graded stakes winner, he could have more improvement to come. A wet track also could move him up, as many of his sire’s offspring excel in the mud.
First Mission
Mage
Blazing Sevens
National Treasure
Mage
First Mission
Red Route One
National Treasure
Mage
National Treasure
First Mission
Red Route One
First Mission
Mage
Blazing Sevens
Red Route One
Mage
Red Route One
First Mission
Perform
First Mission
National Treasure
Mage
Perform
National Treasure
First Mission
Mage
Blazing Sevens
First Mission
Mage
National Treasure
Blazing Sevens
Mage
First Mission
Blazing Sevens
National Treasure
First Mission
Mage
Blazing Sevens
National Treasure
First Mission
National Treasure
Coffeewithchris
Mage
National Treasure
Mage
Blazing Sevens
Red Route One
First Mission
Mage
Red Route One
National Treasure
Mage
First Mission
Blazing Sevens
Red Route One
First Mission 56
Mage 54
National Treasure 24
Blazing Sevens 8
MAGE flashed potential winning his debut and was immediately thrown into the deep end. The growing pains wereevident with slow starts compromising him in Florida, though he still ran well in those races. He had dynamics in his favor in Kentucky despite another slow start, but he put it all together in a race that is notoriously unforgiving on inexperienced horses. He doesn’t have to face any of his Derby rivals in the Preakness and still has forward to go.
NATIONAL TREASURE held his own against the top 2-year- olds last year while placing in a couple of major Grade 1 races. He didn’t make the Derby but prepped in a fast edition the Santa Anita Derby and ran a deceptively good race while staying on well after taking a bit of a shuffle at the top of the stretch. He hasn’t won since his sprint debut but is back with Bob Baffert and has a running style that suggests longer might be better. He might have enough speed to fall into a trip from his rail draw, and I do not think we have seen his best yet.
FIRST MISSION has already run fast enough to be competi- tive with this Preakness field and has the potential to be one of the better colts in this crop when all is said and done. He had the right trip in the Lexington and was unfazed having to rally along the rail to win that race. He faces a sterner test here and is not going to be much of a price, though this race did not come up nearly as tough as it could have. Looks like the main threat to the favorite.
PERFORM started out in some tough maiden special weight races going shorter while showing early speed. It took him a while to put everything together, but he has now won both starts with a new closing style since being stretched out in distance. He was impressive coming through traffic with a strong finish to become a stakes winner last time and steps up at the right time for an excellent trainer.
MAGE
NATIONAL TREASURE
FIRST MISSION
PERFORM
MAGE appears to be a complete and total standout based on his Florida Derby runner-up finish two starts back and his pace-assisted Kentucky Derby victory two weeks ago against a much better field than he meets in this watered-down Preakness.
The Derby upset by Mage was no fluke. He also ran well two back when compromised by a premature move in the Florida Derby. The challenge for Mage in the Preakness is to reproduce his Florida and Kentucky performances while rallying from behind a likely slower pace. Furthermore, the last 15 Derby winners who ran in the Preakness produced only five wins against 10 losses. But this year’s field is modest. Slow pace scenario notwithstanding, Mage stands out at a short price.
FIRST MISSION is a fresh and lightly raced pace-presser with a tactical advantage over the late-running Derby winner. First Mission has speed to be forwardly placed in a race short on true pace. He showed class last out in just his third start. He rallied along the rail to win the Grade 3 Lexington with a 98 Beyer Speed Figure, a higher figure than the last three spring Preakness winners had previously earned.
First Mission is fast enough on numbers and will get the jump on the Derby winner. Lack of seasoning is not an issue. With only three career starts, First Mission enters with the same number of starts as 2017 Preakness winner Cloud Computing and 2022 winner Early Voting.
BLAZING SEVENS skipped the Derby, similar to his trainer’s previous Preakness winners, Cloud Computing and Early Voting. Blazing Sevens reportedly has worked very well for his third start back from a layoff; this race should be his best. A main challenge facing Blazing Sevens is two turns. Until now, he seems best at one turn. Third preference, nonetheless.
The longshot PERFORM, a $150,000 supplement, could outrun his likely high odds based on improvement since stretching to two turns. A maiden winner two back, he scored a better-than-looked victory last out in the ungraded Federico Tesio. He was buried near the back turning for home, blocked in traffic, squeezed through, exploded late, and was up by a head. The win was better than the low 85 Beyer. The improving colt merits a longshot look, notwithstanding his fig.
National Treasure drew the rail, adds blinkers, and is likely to use whatever speed he still has. National Treasure is back with his original trainer after finishing a disappointing fourth in his comeback in the Santa Anita Derby. Red Route One will be rolling late. Coffeewithchris and Chase the Chaos seem to be in tough.
MAGE
FIRST MISSION
BLAZING SEVENS
PERFORM
Chase the Chaos and Coffeewithchris won’t hit the board, though Coffeewith- chris can impact the race by showing speed. And I think he’s sent for the lead – the pace might turn quicker than people expect.
MAGE got a great trip in the Derby as the pace melted down and he raced unobstructed to the wire. Part of the reason he got that trip was the fact he traveled so well. I liked Mage coming into the Derby but worried about his slow starts and lack of experi- ence, neither of which mattered. He’s the most likely winner of the Preakness. That said, Mage is supposed to regress at less than one-tenth his Derby price. I missed him last time at 15-1 and won’t be boarding the train at 7-5.
Folks trying to beat Mage are piling onto FIRST MISSION. I won’t be surprised if he vies for favoritism. The barns loves him, and when they love a horse, the money flows accordingly. I like him, too, and First Mission projects on a good trip, but he’s the wrong price. This is his first ship, he still doesn’t change leads professionally, and in the Lexington he wore down a horse better suited to a one-turn mile.
Blazing Sevens got nothing out of his 2023 debut and had a right to tire in the Blue Grass. I still didn’t like the way he looked. I grant that Blazing Sevens has the potential to hit a career peak and contend, but wonder if he has progressed much from his early 2-year-old form and doubt he really wants to run this far.
NATIONAL TREASURE could offer some value. He has worked sharper in blinkers his last three breezes, has had some tough trips, but I’m unsure there’s real improvement coming, mainly because of mental limitations. The blinkers move has been made before. National Treasure runs in spots and doesn’t seem focused but is another entirely plausible winner.
PERFORM is too slow on the Beyers. I think he’s faster than the numbers, likely to run his best race, and I’m keying him.
Perform was late to blossom but has made rapid strides at age 3, starting with his fourth behind Mage in his 2023 debut. He absolutely pulled himself up after an eye-catching far turn move at Tampa; the runner-up there came back with an 88 Beyer in a Churchill maiden romp.
The Tesio is a negative key race for the Preakness and Perform beat little in it, but he had no right to win that race from an impossible position 2 1/2 furlongs out.
He stumbled at the start of the Tesio, doesn’t have to be so far back, and has come out of the race with the fastest works of his life. He looks like all the value.
PERFORM
FIRST MISSION
MAGE
NATIONAL TREASURE
NATIONAL TREASURE gave a good try in the Breeders’ Cup when behind the
two best juveniles in the country, then had to play catch-up this year. He didn’t have the cleanest trip when beaten a length at odds-on in the Sham, then missed the San Felipe due to a foot issue. Thus, he ran in the Santa Anita Derby following a three-month layoff and was hardly disgraced. Four wide on the backstretch in a race where the top-two finish- ers saved ground most of the way, he was steadied in between at the quarter pole, then finished evenly with a solid gallop-out. He’s run well with blinkers in the past and should be forwardly placed from the rail.
MAGE is the horse to beat following his explosive Kentucky Derby win. Despite breaking slowly, as is his habit, he traveled very comfortably in between on the backstretch, made a sharp outside bid, then gamely wore down the runner-up. It was a huge effort considering his inexperience, and a repeat of that perfor- mance likely puts him in the winner’s circle once again.
FIRST MISSION gets the acid test after learning valuable lessons in the Lexington. He utilized his good tactical speed to secure pocket position, was hard-ridden on the second turn, angled inside the leader, then grinded him down despite being very late to change leads. Expect him to get close to the pace.
BLAZING SEVENS was lackluster in the Fountain of Youth but improved when third in the Blue Grass. Chad Brown has had success skipping the Derby to point to the Preakness, and this one might be set for his best in the third start of his form cycle.
Red Route One doesn’t have speed, but he does boast a strong kick and can factor if the pace is very hot up front.
NATIONAL TREASURE
MAGE
FIRST MISSION
BLAZING SEVENS
“Lightly raced 3-year-old with only three previous starts wins Triple Crown event.” Is it a copy of a headline reporting Mage’s Kentucky Derby victory? Perhaps. Or will it be one proclaiming the winner of this year’s Preakness instead?
FIRST MISSION, like Mage in the Derby, enters the Preakness as a steadily improving young horse with only three starts on his résumé.
He is a horse who has clearly gotten better with experience and more distance, and one who might just be peaking at the right time to pull off the minor upset in the middle leg of this year’s Triple Crown. First Mission earned high marks in defeat going six furlongs in his debut, the race totally flattered after the winner, his stablemate Bishops Bay, came back to win a two-turn allowance race at next asking before finishing a close second in last Saturday’s Peter Pan at Belmont Park.
First Mission stretched out successfully to win his maiden by seven widening lengths at next asking before improving leaps and bounds while winning the Lexington in game fashion and earn- ing a career-best Beyer Speed Figure in the process. Among his victims that day was Derby fourth-place finisher Disarm.
First Mission has given every indication he’s come out of the Lexington in tip-top shape, with a trio of works that appear to have gotten better each time. Well drawn outside, he figures to sit the perfect trip stalking the likely pace of longshot Coffeewithchris and/or National Treasure.
First Mission should get first run on MAGE, who remains pace dependent and is perhaps destined to regress a bit coming off such a major leap forward from a Beyer Figure standpoint in the Derby while returning on just two weeks’ rest to make his fourth start in just an 11-week span. Hard not to root for Mage’s connections as well as a potential Triple Crown candidate moving forward, but from a value standpoint, at close to even money, it’s worth siding against from a parimutuel standpoint.
BLAZING SEVENS took a big step forward off a dull 3-year- old debut and with the addition of blinkers in the Blue Grass, although the first two finishers that day obviously disappointed in the Derby. Has the looks of a horse sitting on his best yet, and it’s hard not to respect trainer Chad Brown’s success in this event.
NATIONAL TREASURE did not have the cleanest of trips in the Santa Anita Derby and likely needed the race after missing a scheduled prep in the San Felipe. The addition of blinkers adds to the allure, expect to see this one forwardly placed if not on the lead from his inside draw. Perform is a steadily improving sort, and I would not be surprised to see him outrun his odds, perhaps grab- bing a minor share with the right trip and another forward move.
FIRST MISSION
MAGE
BLAZING SEVENS
NATIONAL TREASURE