STRENGTHS: Despite the lack of a significant prep win on the way to Kentucky, Hit Show has been brought along expertly by trainer Brad Cox and might be underrated coming into this race. He came up short in the Wood Memorial as the favorite, but improved his Beyer Speed Figure again to a 93. He has yet to take a backward step on figures since debuting last October. Hit Show has displayed a nice combination of tactical speed and finishing power in his races. His speed figures are a bit light when compared to the leaders of this crop and the Wood Memorial is not viewed as one of the stronger prep races this year, but Hit Show had plenty working against him there while breaking from a difficult post and winding up in tight between horses down the stretch.

WEAKNESSES: His lack of a really fast race leading up to the Derby is a concern, though this is a year that is light on high speed figures. He certainly did not participate in the stronger prep races this year, and Hit Show still came up short to a longshot in the Wood. He is going to have to take another step forward, and it is fair to wonder whether that is a reasonable expectation as he stretches out in distance while having to navigate a big field.

BETTING VALUE: Considering his speed figures are at the lower end and the loss in his final prep as the favorite, Hit Show is likely to be north of 20-1 odds in the Derby. He also is one of the more interesting longshots in the race considering his pedigree, connections, and ability to get early position while still producing a strong finish. 

SIRE: Candy Ride, who set Del Mar’s track record for 1 1/4 miles in winning the 2003 Pacific Classic, has not yet sired the winner of a Triple Crown race, but it seems only a matter of time, with many of his top-flight progeny succeeding around two turns. Gun Runner finished third in the 2016 Kentucky Derby and went on to win the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic; he is now a classic sire in his own right. Candy Ride’s other two Eclipse Award winners are Shared Belief, whose five Grade 1 wins included a pair at 1 1/4 miles, and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Game Winner.

DAM: Actress was a successful runner around two turns, winning the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes and Grade 3 Comely Stakes, both at 1 1/8 miles. She also recorded four stakes placings. As a broodmare, she is the dam of two winners from as many starters. Actress sports a classic pedigree herself, being by Tapit and out of Canadian champion and classic winner Milwaukee Appeal. Milwaukee Appeal won the Woodbine Oaks before finishing third in the Queen’s Plate, beaten a neck, and second in the Prince of Wales, beaten a nose. The millionaire went on to finish second in both the Grade 1 Alabama and Grade 1 Spinster.

OUTLOOK: Hit Show brings a solid two-turn pedigree to this spring’s classics. 

STRENGTHS: Verifying was good at 2, winning his debut on Travers Saturday at Saratoga and then running second over sloppy going in the Grade 1 Champagne. It appears he’s come back even better this year. He ran two of the faster Beyer Speed Figures of the crop when dominating a first-level allowance and finishing second in the Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland to fellow Derby runner Tapit Trice. He wound up in behind horses in the Rebel at Oaklawn, and that trip might have contributed to his fourth-place finish. He has tactical speed and can obtain a forward position. Can’t argue with his pedigree as he’s a half-brother to five-time Grade 1 winner Midnight Bisou by Triple Crown winner Justify.

WEAKNESSES: He still hasn’t won a stakes and was no match for Forte in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He enjoyed a good trip in the Blue Grass and still fell short, and he must prove that he is as good as some of the more highly regarded runners. While his pedigree screams distance, there’s still some doubt as to whether Verifying will truly be at his best at 1 1/4 miles.

BETTING VALUE: He’s well bred, well connected, enters the Derby following a fast race against a quality competitor, and still might be overlooked at the windows. Odds of 20-1 seem fair to win, and he should be considered in exotic wagers. – Dan Illman

SIRE: This is the first crop for Triple Crown winner Justify – who, of course, won at up to 1 1/2 miles. Justify finished third on last year’s freshman earnings list and is the sire of five graded/ group stakes winners to date. Justify’s sire, Scat Daddy, has shown major early promise as a sire of sires, with the likes of the exciting No Nay Never in Europe.

DAM: Grade 3 Florida Oaks winner Diva Delite is best known as the dam of Eclipse Award champion Midnight Bisou. She won 13 graded stakes, five of them Grade 1s, during a four-year career in which she never missed the board, earning more than $7 million.

OUTLOOK: Verifying is a case of breeding the best to the best and hoping for the best. The son of a Triple Crown champion is a half-brother to one of the better route racemares of recent years. The distance of the Derby should be well within his scope, and the racing records of his sire and half-sister suggest he will continue to develop.

STRENGTHS: He’s versatile as a winner on dirt and synthetic surfaces, wet and fast tracks, and over distances ranging from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. He’s also proven on the main track at Churchill Downs, having won last year’s Street Sense. All of Two Phil’s’s starts this year have come in Kentucky Derby prep races. In the Lecomte at Fair Grounds, he finished second, in front of next-out Rebel winner Confidence Game, and in the Risen Star there he was third to next-out Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire. Two Phil’s proceeded to nail down a prep win of his own in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, defeating multiple graded stakes winner Major Dude. Two Phil’s has run well in large fields, and his tactical speed could help him secure position against another large group of horses Saturday.

WEAKNESSES: He ran the best race of his career in the Jeff Ruby over a synthetic track. The Beyer Speed Figure of 101 he earned is the highest last-race number in the Kentucky Derby, but his top dirt Beyer is an 88. By comparison, leading Kentucky Derby contenders Forte and Practical Move earned their triple-digit Beyers on dirt. Another concern is that in his one Grade 1 appearance, Two Phil’s finished 10 lengths behind Forte in last year’s Breeders’ Futurity.

BETTING VALUE: He could go off higher than 10-1, and that’s appealing for a horse who likes to win. He has a career mark of 4 for 8 and is coming off a dominant victory in a prep. He’s also one of just a few in the field to have put up a triple-digit Beyer, and for these reasons is one to at least use underneath in the exotics.

SIRE: Hard Spun scored his Grade 1 win at seven furlongs in the King’s Bishop at Saratoga, and won at two turns on Turfway’s synthetic, taking the Lane’s End and Kentucky Cup Classic. He finished on the board in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Breeders’ Cup Classic. His progeny, who have shown ability on a number of surfaces and have succeeded in major events at both one and two turns, with the likes of champion Questing, Grade 1 winners Wicked Strong and Hard Aces, and Australian Group 1 winners Gatting and Le Romain being two-turn winners. He also is the sire of Metropolitan Handicap winner Silver State and BC Sprint winner Aloha West.

DAM: Mia Torri was a graded-placed multiple stakes winner sprinting on the dirt. Two Phil’s is her first runner and one of the more accomplished runners in this extended family.

OUTLOOK: Two Phil’s turned in his best performance on the Tapeta at Turfway Park. However, he is already a graded stakes winner on dirt at Churchill Downs. His sire would suggest that added distance is within his wheelhouse. – Nicole Russo

STRENGTHS: Although he won the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes rallying from midfield, Confidence Game does have speed. He pressed the pace when third in the Grade 3 Lecomte; he previously led an allowance gate to wire. Tactical speed is an attribute in the Kentucky Derby. If the race unfolds at a modest tempo, Confidence Game should be forwardly placed over a Churchill Downs surface on which he has already won twice.

WEAKNESSES: Confidence Game has not started since late February, a layoff deemed necessary because his win in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes was so physically demanding. The 10-week layoff is the longest by a Kentucky Derby starter since 1999 when Worldly Manner entered off a break of more than four months; he finished seventh. In 1995, Ski Captain entered off a 13-week layoff. He finished 14th. The only fast race by Confidence Game was on a wet track; he scored a 94-Beyer sloppy-track win in the Rebel. The highest figure Confidence Game earned on fast dirt is an 83 when he defeated subsequent graded winner Rocket Can in an allowance. Confidence Game might prefer a wet track, and if the Rebel did not take so much out of him, he would have benefited by a last start more recent than 10 weeks ago.

BETTING VALUE: Confidence Game’s odds should be high. Due to uncertainty returning from a layoff, and uncertain ability on fast dirt, less than 30-1 would be an underlay. 

SIRE: Candy Ride, who set Del Mar’s record for the 1 1/4 miles winning the 2003 Pacific Classic, has not yet sired the winner of a Triple Crown race, but it seems only a matter of time. Gun Runner finished third in the 2016 Kentucky Derby and went on to win the 2017 BC Classic to earn Horse of the Year honors; he is now a classic sire in his own right. Candy Ride’s other two Eclipse Award winners are Shared Belief, whose five Grade 1 wins included a pair at 1 1/4 miles, and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Game Winner.

DAM: Eblouissante, best known as a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, won at 1 1/16 miles on both all-weather and dirt. Confidence Game is her second winner from three starters and her first stakes horse. Eblouissante and Zenyatta are out of the winning Kris S. mare Vertigineux, also dam of multiple Grade 1 winner Balance and stakes winner Where’s Bailey. Eblouissante is the mare’s fourth daughter to produce a stakes winner. Bernardini is an outstanding broodmare sire, with his daughters producing Grade 1 winners including Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress, Catholic Boy, Clairiere, Colonel Liam, Dunbar Road, Emblem Road, and Maxfield.

OUTLOOK: Confidence Road not only sports one of the most recognizable pedigrees on the Triple Crown trail, it is one of the best suited for routes. – Nicole Russo

STRENGTHS: He has a proven, strong late kick, and he’s a very game colt, getting his neck down on the wire in the Blue Grass in a race that proved to be his toughest test of 2023. The 99 Beyer Speed Figure he posted in that victory gives him strong credibility in the Derby, as it probably won’t take much more than that to win it. He’s a closer in a race that should feature an honest pace, and he is certainly bred to handle the extra distance.

WEAKNESSES: Comes into the Derby off a taxing effort in which he earned the best Beyer of his career. That could lead to a regression here as he meets the best field he’s seen yet, at a distance he’s never tried. His running style means he will need to work out a trip, likely from well off the pace, and there’s always the concern that stone closers like this will have to negotiate traffic.

BETTING VALUE: Figures to be among the top choices in the race, probably second choice to stablemate Forte in the neighborhood of 5-1 or 6-1, and that’s a little light given the fact he’ll be facing 19 rivals and will need to work out a trip as a deep closer. Further, he doesn’t have a distinct edge in Beyers, and he would need to improve off the best figure of his career to win this, it seems. Obviously capable of getting a big part of this, and even winning it, but others in the race would seem to offer more value. 

SIRE: Perennial leading sire Tapit is coming off a strong 2022 season in which he was represented by unbeaten Horse of the Year Flightline, a dominant winner of the Pacific Classic and BC Classic at 1 1/4 miles. Tapit’s ability to impart stamina also is evident in his four career winners of the 1 1/2-mile Belmont – Tonalist (2014), Creator (2016), Tapwrit (2017), and Essential Quality (2021), the most for a sire in the modern history of the race. Flightline and Essential Quality are among Tapit’s six individual Eclipse Award champions, all of whom won Grade 1 races around two turns.

DAM: Tapit Trice is the second foal out of Danzatrice, a daughter of 2009 Belmont Stakes runner-up Dunkirk. The mare won 7 of 15 career starts, including the Parx Oaks and Tiffany Lass, both at a mile and 70 yards, and the Iowa Distaff at 1 1/16 miles. She was third in the Grade 3 Groupie Doll at a mile. Danzatrice is a half-sister and bred on the same cross to Eclipse Award champion 2-year-old filly Jaywalk, whose multiple graded wins at 1 1/16 miles were highlighted by the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. They also are half-siblings to Nice Guys Finish, a minor stakes winner at seven furlongs. This is the extended family of 2010 Louisiana Derby winner Mission Impazible, who retired as a multiple graded stakes-winning millionaire.

OUTLOOK: The long-bodied Tapit Trice, a $1.3 million yearling, sports stamina on both sides of his pedigree, suggesting races at 1 1/4 miles and beyond are well within his wheelhouse. – Nicole Russo

STRENGTHS: The unbeaten colt is brimming with potential after capturing the Louisiana Derby, his first start without Lasix. He improved his Beyer Speed Figure by 10 points, has yet to take a backward step on that scale, and one can project another forward move considering his natural talent and upside. Nice to see the versatility he’s shown despite his inexperience. Rated off the lead in his first two starts, he took advantage of a lack of pace when wiring the Louisiana Derby. He seems very professional and can be placed anywhere his jockey desires. He handled 1 3/16 miles without issue in the Louisiana Derby, has started in nothing but route races, and acts like stamina is an ally.

WEAKNESSES: Of the 71 Derby starters to race without 2-yearold foundation, only one (Justify) reached the winner’s circle. It’s asking a lot for such a lightly raced horse to face a giant crowd at Churchill Downs, and then deal with a crush of 19 other horses rampaging for position going into the first turn. While Kingsbarns remained unbeaten, his connections couldn’t have asked for a better setup in the Louisiana Derby. He took the lead in a paceless race and understandably had plenty left in the tank when the closers came calling. The pace will likely be swifter in the Derby, and Kingsbarns might have to earn it from off the lead.

BETTING VALUE: He’s unbeaten and goes out for high-profile connections so he figures to take money at the windows. Odds of 12-1 or so seem fair at post time, but demand value considering he’s so lightly raced and received a perfect trip last time out. – Dan Illman

SIRE: Eclipse Award champion juvenile Uncle Mo has gotten off to a flying start as a classic sire in the first decade of his stud career. His first crop was led by champion Nyquist, the 2016 Kentucky Derby winner. Last year, his son Mo Donegal bounced back from a troubled Derby trip to win the Belmont Stakes. Uncle Mo’s other major winners include two-time Breeders’ Cup-winning turf sprinter Golden Pal, along with Grade 1 winners A Mo Reay, Bast, Dream Tree, Gomo, Mo Forza, Mo Town, Outwork, and Unbridled Mo.

DAM: Lady Tapit, who got her only win at a mile on dirt, crossed the line fourth in a series of dirt graded stakes routes in California; among those efforts, she was promoted to third in the Grade 3 Adoration on a disqualification. This is the first winner from two starters out of the mare, who is a half-sister to Grade 1-winning turf router Gozzip Girl.

OUTLOOK: This is an eclectic family with both turf and dirt ability on both sides. However, essentially, it is crossing a classic sire over another classic sire in Tapit. Additional distance should be well within the developing Kingsbarns’s scope. –

STRENGTHS: He has yet to run a bad race, hitting the board in all seven starts, including a game win in the Grade 3 Sham three back. The Beyer Speed Figure he posted there gives him credibility in this race, and it was earned despite a tough trip, on the lead and dueling the entire race. A slow start cost him in his return in the Rebel, but that race served to prove that he doesn’t need the lead, and that versatility gives him some options as he tries to work out a trip in the Derby.

WEAKNESSES: His Beyers have declined with each start since the Sham win, indicating he may have peaked in that race. The other concern is that skid coincides with a gradual increase in distance, and the fact that he goes longer than he ever has in the Derby doesn’t inspire confidence. He did close some ground in the Rebel, but that was with the aid of a favorable race flow, and if he’s close to the early pace in the Derby, as expected, he could have trouble lasting for a part of this if the fractions are on the quick side, as expected.

BETTING VALUE: The price will be right, as he’ll be at least 20-1, but it does seem he’s going to be up against it in terms of the race flow. Would prefer to use the closers in that price range, as he is likely to have trouble lasting in the lane. – Kenny Peck

SIRE: Good Magic won the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to earn a divisional Eclipse Award championship. The following year, he won the Blue Grass and Haskell and along the way finished a fine second in the Kentucky Derby to Triple Crown winner Justify. The young stallion was among the leaders of the 2022 freshman sire class and has had breakout success this spring, with eight stakes winners. In addition to Reincarnate, he is the sire of Blazing Sevens and Grade 1-placed Mage. Good Magic is a son of two-time Horse of the Year and prominent classic sire Curlin.

DAM: Allanah notched all her wins on Turfway Park’s synthetic surface, winning the Cincinnati Trophy sprinting and taking two other races at a mile. With Reincarnate, her first stakes horse, she is now the dam of three winners from four starters, with two winners at a mile on dirt. Allanah is a half-sister to Over Emphasize, who is multiple graded stakes-placed routing on turf.

OUTLOOK: Good Magic is a rising young sire whose offspring followed in his footsteps, showing ability as juveniles and then training on at 3. Success by any of them in the Derby would not be a surprise. – Nicole Russo

STRENGTHS: He has come a long way in a short time since debuting at the end of January with an impressive win sprinting. He went right into the Fountain of Youth off that debut victory, where he put himself at an immediate disadvantage by missing the break. He wound up wide after the poor start and made a run to contention before weakening late behind Forte in an effort that is better than it may appear. He faced Forte again in the Florida Derby and ran even better in that race despite breaking poorly once again. Considering the lack of experience coupled with another slow start, that Florida Derby effort pegs Mage as one of the more talented colts in this crop, and his best races are likely still ahead of him.

WEAKNESSES: As well as Mage has run in his last two starts, he has still yet to win anything other than a maiden race. He clearly has talent, but there is a distinct lack of foundation here with only three starts leading up to the Kentucky Derby, a race that is notoriously hard on inexperience. There also is the issue of his poor gate habits that have compromised him in his last two starts. Another slow start is likely to be too much for him to overcome on Saturday.

BETTING VALUE: Mage has a bit of a following despite his lack of experience and might not offer the higher odds that should be required before making him the focus of any wagering strategy. Mage has too much working against him to take anything lower than 20-1 at post time. – Mike Beer

SIRE: Good Magic won the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to earn a divisional Eclipse Award championship. The following year, he won the Blue Grass and Haskell and along the way finished a fine second in the Kentucky Derby to Triple Crown winner Justify. The young stallion was among the leaders of the 2022 freshman sire class and has had breakout success this spring. In addition to Grade 1-placed Mage, he is the sire of eight stakes winners, including Blazing Sevens and Reincarnate.

DAM: Puca finished second in the Grade 2 Gazelle at 1 1/8 miles in the spring of her 3-year-old year. She continued to be a productive racemare for a number of years and won the Steve Pini Memorial at a mile and 70 yards on the Suffolk Downs turf as a 5-year-old. Mage is her second foal. Her first, Gunning, was third in the seven-furlong Audubon Oaks last summer at Ellis. Puca, out of stakes-placed juvenile Boat’s Ghost, is a half-sister to millionaire Finnegans Wake. His five graded stakes wins routing on turf were highlighted by the Grade 1 Turf Classic at Churchill.

OUTLOOK: Good Magic is from a proven classic sireline and has multiple chances to become the second son of Curlin in a row to sire a Derby winner. A route-oriented female family backs this sireline up.

STRENGTHS: Colt by Curlin has always been highly regarded, as he ran in a pair of Grade 1 races as a maiden last year, including a late-running third in the Del Mar Futurity sprinting. Given that foundation to build upon, he took the necessary step forward in his 3-year-old debut when he overwhelmed maidens in fast time. He has settled for third behind leading California contender Practical Move in his two Derby preps, though there are positives to take away from both of those efforts. He was very conservatively ridden in the San Felipe, before coming wide and staying gamely to the end with little chance to make a real impact. His Santa Anita Derby might be one of the more underrated losing efforts on the Derby trail as he was always on the outside as the one-two finishers both pulled inside trips. The 99 Beyer Speed Figure he earned in his final prep makes him one of the faster colts in this crop, and he has shown the kind of improvement since returning as a 3-year-old that often leads to success in this race. He also is handled by a trainer with winning experience in this race. Shirreffs won in 2005 with longshot Giacomo.

WEAKNESSES: Despite solid 3-year-old form, Skinner remains eligible for an entry-level allowance race. Both of the horses that finished just ahead of him in the Santa Anita Derby also are expected in Kentucky, and he has now lost twice to the more tactical Practical Move. Given his late-running style, Skinner is going to need some pace and trip help while attempting to navigate the usual large Derby field.

BETTING VALUE: Considering his development this year and his recent competitive finishes with the best 3-year-olds in California, he is playable at odds of 15-1 or higher. – Mike Beer

SIRE: Two-time Horse of the Year Curlin was on the board in all three 2007 Triple Crown races against a strong crop, with a victory in the Preakness Stakes. His seven Grade 1/Group 1 victories also included the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic and 2008 Dubai World Cup. Curlin has been particularly successful in the American Triple Crown races. He is the sire of 2013 Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice and 2014 Preakness Stakes winner Exaggerator. In addition, his offspring Good Magic, Irish War Cry, Keen Ice, Nest, Ride On Curlin, and Tenfold have all hit the board in Triple Crown races.

DAM: Winding Way was a graded stakes winner sprinting on allweather tracks, but her runners have succeeded at middle distances. She is the dam of Vicarage, a winner at 1 1/16 miles on both dirt and turf, and My Bronx Tail, a winner at a mile on dirt. 

OUTLOOK: Skinner’s female family seems slanted toward sprint and middle distances, but Curlin’s success with Triple Crown runners cannot be overlooked.

STRENGTHS: Practical Move is the only Derby entrant with multiple triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures; he earned back-to-back 100s this winter at Santa Anita. He is 4 for 4 in routes, including a maiden win via disqualification, and has natural speed for a forwardly placed trip. He is comfortable taking dirt racing behind horses, and quick enough to make his move when given the cue. After winning two previous routes by open lengths, Practical Move made a premature move into the far turn of the Santa Anita Derby and found himself in a dogfight in the stretch. He showed class fighting back inside and winning by a nose.

WEAKNESSES: Practical Move was fully extended to win a blanket finish in the Santa Anita Derby, scoring by a nose over Mandarin Hero, who had been facing lesser company in Japan. In all three stakes wins, Practical Move benefited from the misfortune of key rivals. In the Los Alamitos Futurity, the odds-on favorite (Arabian Lion) misfired and finished last. There were key scratches in the San Felipe (National Treasure) and Santa Anita Derby (Geaux Rocket Ride).

BETTING VALUE: Practical Move could start at single-digit odds, which some will consider an underlay. Others may consider a single-digit price entirely fair for a colt who has never lost a route and is the only entrant with multiple triple-digit Beyers. Less than 8-1 is an underlay; higher than 10-1 is gravy.

SIRE: Practical Joke was a multiple Grade 1 winner around one turn, with the heart to carry his abilities to creditable placings in two-turn events. He won the Grade 1 Hopeful and Allen Jerkens at seven furlongs, and the Grade 1 Champagne and Grade 3 Dwyer at a one-turn mile. His five graded placings included a third, beaten less than a length, in the Grade 1 Haskell in his closest finish around two turns. While Practical Move has emerged as a confirmed twoturn horse, Practical Joke’s other three graded stakes winners this year – Little Vic, Skelly, and Tejano Twist – have all done so around one turn. Practical Joke’s other career standouts include Chocolate Gelato, who won last fall’s Grade 1 Frizette; and Wit, a multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter on dirt who is a Grade 1-placed stakes winner at middle distances on turf.

DAM: Practical Move is the first starter out of Ack Naughty, multiple stakes-placed on turf in New York at up to 1 1/8 miles. Ack Naughty is out of Grade 3-placed sprinter Dash for Money, the dam of stakes winners So Lonesome and No Spin.

OUTLOOK: Practical Joke is a son of classic sire Into Mischief, and it stands to reason that he could tap into that ability. However, Practical Move appears to be an outlier from a sprint-oriented career so far. The immediate female family also is slanted toward speed, but there is classic ability deeper in the family. – Nicole Russo

STRENGTHS: Never off the board in five tries, Disarm has displayed consistency as well as some talent. He looked good in both starts last year, including a third-place debut at Churchill Downs, then had some excuses when beaten in his first two races in 2023. Wired by a slow-paced winner at Oaklawn on Feb. 19, he then ran well when buried down inside behind very slow fractions in the Louisiana Derby. He should get a stronger race flow in the Kentucky Derby. Conditioned by a master trainer, Disarm might be rounding into his best form after running the two fastest races of his career in the Louisiana Derby and Lexington Stakes.

WEAKNESSES: He missed a lot of time last year after graduating at Saratoga and needed to place in the Lexington last month to simply qualify for this race. He lacked a strong late kick in the Lexington and must improve drastically from that performance against this tougher group. While he’s paired up Beyer tops in his last two races, often a harbinger of another forward move, he’ll need a good amount of improvement against several horses who have already reached the 95-100 range. Still eligible for a nonwinners-of-two allowance, he will face his sternest class test at a very demanding distance.

BETTING VALUE: Disarm has ability and potential, but one must wonder if the Derby is a case of too much, too soon. Odds of 30-1 or so seem fair on the win end.

SIRE: Gun Runner, the 2017 Horse of the Year, set an earnings record for a North American freshman sire with his first crop, led by 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and Eclipse Award champion Echo Zulu. That first crop went on to produce a classic winner in Preakness Stakes victor Early Voting. Gun Runner also is the sire, to date, of Grade 1 winners Cyberknife, Gunite, Society, and Taiba and graded stakes winners Pappacap, Runninsonofagun, Sixtythreecaliber, and Wicked Halo.

DAM: Easy Tap, who got her only win at a mile on dirt, also is the dam of Tap Daddy, a stakes winner on turf in the United States and now a champion stayer in Venezuela, and of Total Tap, by Candy Ride, who is stakes-placed at a mile. Interestingly, this is the pedigree of another of this year’s Derby candidates in Grade 1 Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire.

OUTLOOK: Crossing Gun Runner over a Tapit mare has already, in a handful of years, proven a successful nick. For example, Society and Wicked Halo are both out of Tapit mares. Gun Runner brings both outstanding tactical speed and the ability to carry it a distance to the mix, and Tapit, the sire of four Belmont Stakes winners, adds additional stamina to the equation. 

STRENGTHS: He brings speed to the table. His quickness – he won his debut going six furlongs in 1:09.80 – should have him right up on the pace. He’s also run well at Churchill Downs, finishing third in the Iroquois making his two-turn debut last year at 2. His first two-turn win came in the Gun Runner over Raise Cain, who would go on to dominate the Gotham. As far as connections, trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux have won 466 races together for a 26 percent strike rate. Of their wins, 124 have come in stakes, with 71 of those graded races. Jace’s Road is co-owned by Albaugh Family Stables, which also has a closer in the field in Angel of Empire.

WEAKNESSES: The two most significant defeats of his career came on surfaces rated sloppy. One of those races came at Churchill. Jace’s Road also lacks experience in some key areas. He is looking for his first win at the graded level and his first win beyond 1 1/16 miles. He has modest Beyer Speed Figures with the exception of the 90 he put up in the Gun Runner.

BETTING VALUE: He might get more support than anticipated coming out of the Cox barn, but still could go off higher than 15-1. As a speed horse, there’s always the hope he might somehow shake free and take these a long way on the lead. 

SIRE: Quality Road won a number of one-turn events, including the Metropolitan Handicap, but could carry his brilliance around two turns, including a track record in the nine-furlong Florida Derby. He has become one of the nation’s elite sires, with his record including Kentucky Oaks winner and champion Abel Tasman, and champion juveniles Caledonia Road and Corniche. Quality Road’s sire, Elusive Quality, sired 2004 dual classic winner Smarty Jones.

DAM: Stakes-placed Out Post, a winning turf sprinter, is the dam of two winners from three starters, with Jace’s Road joined by Isolated, also a winning sprinter. Out Post’s dam is a sister to Forest Secrets, brilliant winner of the Grade 1 Acorn. She also is a half-sister to graded stakes-winning turf router Rumor Has It. This is the extended family of two-time Eclipse Award champion and Kentucky Oaks winner Silverbulletday.

OUTLOOK: Jace’s Road’s immediate pedigree suggests ability at up to 1 1/8 miles. He will have to tap into generations farther back to stretch out the additional furlong of the Derby.

STRENGTHS: His Beyer Speed Figures are fairly consistent, and he does have the ability to make up ground in the lane, a running style that should come in handy in the Derby, with a quick, contested pace likely. He regressed in a race two back, but that was due to the race flow, as he had little chance to close behind those soft splits in the Louisiana Derby. He was making up ground in the Blue Grass last time out and figures to be well spotted to make an impact in the Derby, if the race flow plays out as expected.

WEAKNESSES: Has yet to post a Beyer good enough to win this race, and he comes into the Derby with just a maiden score to his credit. He was aided by a favorable race flow the only time he’s hit the board against winners, in the Risen Star, a race where closers held the edge. His lack of positional speed means he’ll have to pass most of the runners in the lane to win, and in a bulky field such as this that is yet another obstacle for him.

BETTING VALUE: Likely to be among the longest of longshots as they enter the gate for the Derby, but that doesn’t necessarily translate to value, as his chances of winning this race are small. His appeal lies in the fact he could pick up some pieces in the lane, as he has the right running style given the expected pace scenario, but he is not fast enough on paper to win this, and he’ll in fact have a tough time hitting the board without a big move forward and luck. 

SIRE: Grade 1 winner Into Mischief is the nation’s four-time reigning leading sire. Although he can impart classy speed to his progeny – he is the sire of Eclipse Award champion sprinters Covfefe and Gamine – he has crossed the hurdle of proving himself a classic sire. He got the breakthrough victory with 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, who went on to finish a hard-fought second in the Preakness Stakes before taking the Breeders’ Cup Classic to secure Horse of the Year honors. Mandaloun crossed the line second in the 2021 Kentucky Derby before later being promoted on the disqualification of Medina Spirit. Into Mischief also is the sire of 2018 Florida Derby winner and Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Audible and 2019 Preakness third-place finisher Owendale. As he continues to build his legacy, he could have multiple runners in this year’s Derby.

DAM: Greenfield d’Oro is the dam of three winners from as many starters, including Rude Awaking and Shutupandshakeit, whose wins came in one-turn dirt races. Greenfield d’Oro is out of Eclipse champion female sprinter Maryfield, winner of the Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes followed by the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint.

OUTLOOK: While Into Mischief is well proven as a classic sire, Sun Thunder’s female family gives cause for pause as to whether he can stretch out in the Kentucky Derby. 

STRENGTHS: Angel of Empire won two major Kentucky Derby preps at 1 1/8 miles, the Risen Star at Fair Grounds and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. He seems like the sort of colt who is rapidly improving at the right time for his high-percentage trainer, Brad Cox, and the Derby distance seems well within his scope. While some might argue that Angel of Empire took advantage of a hot pace to win the Risen Star, he was undoubtedly the best in the Arkansas Derby, making a big move on the turn before finishing strongly in the lane. He’s improved on the Beyer scale in each of his dirt races and needs only incremental improvement to match the faster 3-year-olds in the Derby.

WEAKNESSES: Although he’s already beaten Derby entrants Two Phil’s, Sun Thunder, Reincarnate, and Rocket Can, it’s fair to question the overall quality of both the Risen Star and Arkansas Derby. Angel of Empire will receive a class test facing higher-rated 3-year-olds such as Forte, Practical Move, and Tapit Trice. He prefers to rally from off the pace, and in the Derby that means he’ll need to work out a trip around or through a bulky group.

BETTING VALUE: Angel of Empire is entering the Derby in career form with plenty of stamina, a solid foundation, and a strong late kick. Odds of 8-1 seem fair on the win end of things, and he looms a solid exotics threat. Contender. 

SIRE: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and Eclipse Award champion Classic Empire went on to win the 2017 Arkansas Derby and finish second in the Preakness Stakes. He is the sire of four graded stakes winners from his first two crops, with Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire joining Classy Edition, Interstatedaydream, and Morello. All scored their graded win at a mile or beyond. Classic Empire is by Pioneerof the Nile, best known as the sire of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Pioneerof the Nile is a grandson of Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled, whose sons and grandsons have been classically prominent sires. The Unbridled line is responsible for American classic winners Always Dreaming, Birdstone, Empire Maker, Grindstone, Mine That Bird, Red Bullet, and Summer Bird, as well as champions Arrogate and Will Take Charge, both major winners at 10 furlongs.

DAM: Angel of Empire is the first foal out of Armony’s Angel, who went winless in eight starts. The mare is a half-sister to Grade 2 Gulfstream Mile winner Conquest Big E and to Aquapazza, a stakes winner at a mile on turf. Another runner from this immediate family is Victory Formation, who won this year’s Smarty Jones Stakes early in the season.

OUTLOOK: Angel of Empire, looking to join Lil E. Tee and Smarty Jones as Pennsylvania-bred Kentucky Derby winners, comes from one of the strongest classic sirelines of modern times.

STRENGTHS: The juvenile champion of 2022 has been favored for this year’s Derby ever since and has yet to make a mistake during his light 3-year-old campaign. He was forward as a juvenile but stretching out in distance appeared to bring out the best in him as he went back-to-back in Grade 1 races to close out the year, including a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure victory at the Breeders’ Cup. He appeared to be no worse for wear while posting a facile victory with a solid Beyer in his return from the layoff in the Fountain of Youth. He did have to work a bit harder to take the Florida Derby over Mage but still managed to close down that talented rival, and he did so while overcoming a difficult post at Gulfstream. His ability to stay within range of the pace yet still finish strongly is a potent combination.

WEAKNESSES: I suppose the one spot of concern so far this year lies in the fact that Forte has yet to surpass his 2-year-old Beyer Speed Figure top in his first two starts. That can be a bad sign without any mitigating factors, though there might be some of those regarding Forte’s two races. After being fairly dominant in his prior three victories, Forte did have to dig down deep in order to prevail in his final prep yet still saw his figure decline to a 95.

BETTING VALUE: He is going to be the shortest price available at post time, though the optics of his final prep might keep his odds in the 4-1 range, which would certainly be fair considering his strong overall résumé.

SIRE: Violence, by Medaglia d’Oro, is from the family of champions Sky Beauty, Gold Beauty, Dayjur, and numerous other major winners. He won his first three starts, including the Grade 2 Nashua and Grade 1 CashCall Futurity. He finished second by a half-length to Orb – the eventual Kentucky Derby winner – in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth before injury ended his career. Before Forte’s emergence last year, Violence had been represented by three Grade 1 winners in the United States, all sprinters – Dr. Schivel, No Parole, and Volatile.

DAM: Forte is the first foal for Queen Caroline, a multiple stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles on turf. This daughter of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and emerging broodmare sire Blame is out of Queens Plaza, a stakes-winning sprinter as a juvenile. She also produced Grade 3-placed juvenile sprinter Queen Teuta and Sunland Oaks runner-up K P Slickem. This is the family of champion Folklore, the granddam of Japanese Triple Crown winner Contrail, who won at up to 1 7/8 miles.

OUTLOOK: Those looking for vulnerabilities in Forte won’t find many on his page. 

STRENGTHS: He really stepped it up in terms of his Beyer Speed Figures in his last couple, and those were the best fields he’s faced to date. The win in the Gotham was authoritative, and while he was clearly aided by the race flow, he should get another fast pace to chase in the Derby. He seems to have the right running style for this race, as he’s a proven closer with a good stretch kick, and given a clean trip he should be in position to pick up the speeds in the lane.

WEAKNESSES: Clearly, he’s well behind the top contenders in this field when it comes to speed figures, as the best Beyer he’s posted to date came when he won the Gotham with a 90. That’s not good enough to win this, and to make matters worse that was with the aid of a fast pace in a race that set up very well for the closers. He predictably regressed some in the Blue Grass and was no threat behind Tapit Trice. He’ll need to take a big step forward to threaten for a major share.

BETTING VALUE: He’ll be long odds in the Derby, probably among the longest-priced runners in the field come post time, but it’s difficult to envision a scenario where he wins this, unless he improves dramatically. He could be considered for the bottom of exotics given his running style, as he should be nicely set up, but that may be the extent of his potential, as his figures suggest most of these are just plain faster. – Kenny Peck

SIRE: Violence, by Medaglia d’Oro, is from the family of champions Sky Beauty, Gold Beauty, and Dayjur, and numerous other major winners. He won his first three starts, including the Grade 2 Nashua and Grade 1 CashCall Futurity. He finished second by a half-length to Orb – the eventual Kentucky Derby winner – in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth before injury ended his career. Before last year, Violence had been represented by three Grade 1 winners in the United States, all sprinters – Dr. Schivel, No Parole, and Volatile. He is now the sire of multiple two-turn Grade 1 winner and Kentucky Derby favorite Forte

DAM: Lemon Belle’s only win in four starts came at six furlongs on dirt. In addition to Raise Cain, she is the dam of three other winners: Digital Footprint, who won at up to 1 1/16 miles on turf; Final Belle, a winner at a mile on turf; and Max’s Causeway, a winner at seven furlongs on dirt. Lemon Belle is out of Grade 2 winner Queenie Belle, making her a half-sister to BC Distaff winner Unrivaled Belle, dam of two-time champion Unique Bella.

OUTLOOK: Raise Cain’s pedigree is something of a mixed bag, with sprint, route, dirt, and turf stakes performers throughout his family. – Nicole Russo

STRENGTHS: The 5 1/2-length win margin by Derma Sotogake in the UAE Derby is the largest in the Kentucky Derby field. Derma Sotogake also might be considered the fastest. Beyer Speed Figures are not produced for Dubai, but a theoretical estimate for the UAE Derby is low-100s. That would rank second to none in this year’s Kentucky Derby field. Derma Sotogake employed front-running tactics in Dubai, but he typically runs from off the pace. Either way, his versatility affords a better chance for a forwardly placed trip in a race typically won from a forward position. Derma Sotogake arrived at Churchill Downs on April 8, posted his initial work over the track April 19, and followed with an impressive team drill April 26. Having started five times at 1 1/8 miles or more, Derma Sotogake is fit and training well. Japan shippers are increasingly successful internationally.

WEAKNESSES: It is difficult to reproduce Dubai form in the Kentucky Derby. None of the 18 Kentucky Derby starters who prepped in Dubai hit the board, although Derma Sotogake is arguably the fastest to try. Derma Sotogake faced rivals in the Middle East and Japan inferior to those in the Kentucky Derby. Of course, that applies to the entire Derby field.

BETTING VALUE: Year after year, Dubai shippers get thwarted in the Kentucky Derby. Yet international success of Japan runners and Derma Sotogake’s impressive victory in the UAE Derby are reasons he could start at single-digit odds. Fair value would be 10-1, anything less would be an underlay. Whether he wins or loses, Derma Sotogake is likely to start at a price below fair value. 

SIRE: This is the first crop for Mind Your Biscuits, winner of the Grade 1 Malibu at seven furlongs in the United States as well as two editions of the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. Although best known for those victories, the multimillionaire New York-bred did finish second in the Grade 1 Whitney and win the Grade 3 Lukas Classic at 1 1/8 miles. In addition to Derma Sotogake, the stallion’s other stakes winner is Maruka Rapid, who has not yet won beyond six furlongs.

DAM: Amour Poesie, whose paternal grandsire is the great Sunday Silence, won the Kanto Oaks at 1 1/4 miles. The long-winded mare won at up to 1 5/16 miles during her productive racing career. Derma Sotogake, her first stakes horse, is one of her four winners from five starters. All but one of those have won at a mile or longer.

OUTLOOK: UAE Derby winner Derma Sotogake is the product of combining American dirt speed with Japanese-cultivated stamina in the female family. Although best known for his sprint prowess, Mind Your Biscuits could run two turns under the right conditions. Placing him over this long-winded mare is an interesting combination. 

STRENGTHS: He opened his season with a stakes win in the Holy Bull and one start later finished a credible second in the Fountain of Youth to champion Forte, the probable Kentucky Derby favorite. Rocket Can’s final prep for the Kentucky Derby came in the Arkansas Derby, the same as a former Bill Mott trainee, Country House, who finished second and was placed first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. Rocket Can will add blinkers in the Derby for Mott, who over a five-year period has won at an 18 percent rate when adding the equipment for dirt races. Rocket Can, who has won on wet and fast tracks, has tactical speed, an asset that could help keep him up out of trouble in the large Derby field.

WEAKNESSES: He finished fourth as the favorite in the Arkansas Derby. The Beyer Speed Figure of 86 he earned lags about 14 to 15 points behind the top Beyers that have been put up by leading Kentucky Derby contenders Forte and Practical Move. Rocket Can is looking for his first win beyond 1 1/16 miles.

BETTING VALUE: Excellent. He’s poised to go off at double-digit odds for the first time in his career and is one to use at least underneath in the exotics as a local winner who has never run worse than fourth in five two-turn starts.

SIRE: Grade 1 winner Into Mischief is the nation’s four-time reigning leading sire. Although he can impart classy speed to his progeny – he is the sire of Eclipse Award champion female sprinters Covfefe and Gamine – he has crossed the hurdle of proving himself a classic sire. He had a breakthrough victory with 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, who went on to finish a hard-fought second in the Preakness Stakes before taking the Breeders’ Cup Classic to secure Horse of the Year honors. Mandaloun crossed the line second in the 2021 Kentucky Derby before later being promoted on the disqualification of Medina Spirit. Into Mischief also is the sire of 2018 Florida Derby winner and Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Audible and 2019 Preakness third-place finisher Owendale. As he continues to build his legacy, he could have multiple runners in this year’s Derby.

DAM: Rocket Can is the third foal out of Tension, but her first winner. The mare is out of multiple Grade 1 winner Tough Tiz’s Sis. The latter is the dam of Tiz Midnight, who, in turn, produced Midnight Memories, both graded stakes winners around two turns.

OUTLOOK: There is plenty of graded stakes ability around two turns in Rocket Can’s female family to go along with classic sire Into Mischief.

STRENGTHS: Colt showed potential right away when putting in a powerful late run to win his career debut sprinting. He has stretched out progressively in distance since that first start while appearing to be learning on the job, and the big breakthrough came in the first attempt at nine furlongs when he prevailed in a long duel to upset the Wood Memorial. While his first two-turn start in Gulfstream’s Holy Bull left something to be desired, Lord Miles was only about five lengths behind leading Derby contender Tapit Trice in his next start. That underappreciated effort led to the big forward move in the Wood and a spot in the Derby field. After spending the majority of both the Holy Bull and Tampa Derby racing down inside and behind horses, he appeared to be much more comfortable racing out in the clear in the Wood Memorial, which also was the case in his impressive victory first-time out.

WEAKNESSES: Even with the recent win he remains one of the slower Derby entrants with a 93 Beyer Speed Figure top. He just improved significantly while taking the Wood Memorial, and it is fair to question whether he can take another big step forward in the Derby, which he is likely to have to do in order to be competitive. He might be more comfortable when able to race out in the clear, and that is never easy to accomplish when dealing with a big Derby field.

BETTING VALUE: He is fresh off a career best, but he was 59-1 that day and is going to be a big price once again. 

SIRE: Two-time Horse of the Year Curlin was on the board in all three 2007 Triple Crown races against a strong crop, with a victory in the Preakness Stakes. His seven Grade/Group 1 victories also included the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic and 2008 Dubai World Cup, both at the classic 10-furlong distance. Curlin has been particularly successful in the American Triple Crown races. He is the sire of 2013 Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice and 2014 Preakness Stakes winner Exaggerator. In addition, his offspring Good Magic, Irish War Cry, Keen Ice, Nest, Ride On Curlin, and Tenfold have all finished on the board in Triple Crown races.

DAM: Lord Miles is the first foal out of unraced Lady Esme, a half-sister to 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and champion Caledonia Road. His extended family includes Grade 1 Donn winner Hymn Book and of Grade 1-winning turf miler Data Link.

OUTLOOK: While Lord Miles pulled one of the biggest upsets of this spring with his Wood Memorial victory, he brings in classic credentials from a pedigree standpoint, with stamina on both sides. 

STRENGTHS: Continuar traveled comfortably for most of the way when rating wide in midpack of the one-mile Cattleya Stakes in Japan last year, was confidently handled until the two-furlong mark, then grinded home in the style of a horse who would appreciate longer distances. Indeed, he won his career debut traveling nine furlongs last fall. Stamina shouldn’t be much of an issue. The inside might have been the place to be at Meydan on World Cup Saturday, and Continuar was hung out chasing the pace while three paths off the rail. Both of his victories came over wet tracks, and he would likely appreciate any sort of moisture in the Churchill strip.

WEAKNESSES: He was no match for Derma Sotogake in either the Saudi Derby or UAE Derby and couldn’t keep up with that horse in an April 26 workout at Churchill Downs. It’s fair to wonder if he’s as good as Derma Sotogake, let alone some of the top American contenders. He probably will face faster early fractions than he’s ever experienced, and might drop far, far back in the early going. He might simply have too much work to do when they turn into the stretch.

BETTING VALUE: While Japanese-based horses have acquitted themselves with tremendous success on the international stage, Continuar might be the lesser of the contingent at Churchill Downs. Odds of 50-1 seem fair for win bettors. 

SIRE: Drefong, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and an Eclipse Award champion, is the most successful son of champion Gio Ponti, a turf router. Drefong was Japan’s leading freshman sire of 2021 with his first crop. He is already showing that his offspring can translate that ability to a route of ground as he is the sire of Japanese 2000 Guineas winner Geoglyph.

DAM: Unraced Pan de Ring, the dam of two winners, is out of Group 1 winner Fusaichi Pandora, who was second in the Japanese Oaks. Pan de Ring is a half-sister to two-time Japanese Horse of the Year Almond Eye, and they are bred on the same cross. Pan de Ring’s great-granddam Sex Appeal – dam of a pair of champions in her own right – is a half-sister to, among other standouts, Kentucky Oaks winner Blush With Pride. Blush With Pride’s daughter Better Than Honour produced backto-back Belmont Stakes winners in Jazil and Rags to Riches. The latter also won the 2007 Kentucky Oaks and was an Eclipse Award champion.

OUTLOOK: Continuar is the product of combining American dirt speed with international stamina, and this family has already had U.S. classic success.

STRENGTHS: Ran well enough in both of the traditional Gulfstream prep races, finishing third in both the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, and while he was no real threat to Forte in those races he wasn’t beaten badly at all by the Kentucky Derby favorite. He has shown he has the tactical speed to get position but he also has the ability to come from off the pace, and that’s a big edge in a large field. His last two races have resulted in the best Beyers of his career, and he could be on the verge of another move forward.

WEAKNESSES: He doesn’t have the Beyers of the top contenders, and he has not yet even won a stakes race, with his victories coming against maidens and optional claimers. He is at his best when able to stalk the pace and make one run, but the expected race flow figures to favor those runners coming from further back. His latest Beyer was the best figure he’s posted yet, but that was with the aid of an extreme race flow, which greatly favored the closers. That was the furthest he’s gone yet, and he seemed to struggle late, which does not bode well for him handling another furlong.

BETTING VALUE: He’ll be a big price but he’ll struggle to last for a large part of this if he’s too close to the pace, which figures to be on the quick side. He looms 20-1 or longer, but others with better closing kicks entice more.

SIRE: Grade 1 winner Into Mischief is the nation’s four-time reigning leading sire. Although he can impart classy speed to his progeny – he is the sire of Eclipse sprinters Covfefe and Gamine – he has proved himself a classic sire. He scored a breakthrough victory with 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, who went on to finish a hard-fought second in the Preakness Stakes before taking the Breeders’ Cup Classic to secure Horse of the Year honors. Mandaloun crossed the line second in the 2021 Kentucky Derby before later being promoted on the disqualification of Medina Spirit.

DAM: Cyclone Mischief is the second foal and first winner out of his dam, a half-sister to Grade 3 Southwest winner Suddenbreakingnews, who finished second in the Arkansas Derby. This is the family of Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks winner and stakes producer Composure. Bernardini has proven an outstanding broodmare sire, with his daughters producing Grade 1 winners including Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress, Catholic Boy, Clairiere, Colonel Liam, Dunbar Road, Emblem Road, and Maxfield.

OUTLOOK: The cross of Into Mischief over a Bernardini mare is responsible for the aforementioned classic-placed millionaire Owendale. It would be no stretch to see Cyclone Mischief sport route ability. – Nicole Russo

STRENGTHS: Made a smart impression in his North American debut as he gave leading Kentucky Derby contender Practical Move all he could handle in the Santa Anita Derby. He earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure that day, and a repeat of that number might have him right in the thick of things on the first Saturday in May. Showed a good amount of professionalism in that race as he rated kindly and didn’t get discouraged racing in behind horses until the upper stretch. Finished nicely in between foes in the manner of a horse that can stay the Derby trip while handling some traffic.

WEAKNESSES: Although his overseas form is excellent, it should be noted that both Derma Sotogake and Continuar competed at the main JRA tracks, while Mandarin Hero might have faced slightly lesser rivals on the local circuits. The Santa Anita Derby seemed like a grueling race, especially for a horse fresh off international travel. It will be interesting to see if that race took some of the starch out of this colt.

BETTING VALUE: Mandarin Hero ran very well at Santa Anita and shouldn’t be overlooked in the Derby wagering if he draws into the race off the also-eligible list. Odds of 20-1 seem fair for a colt who is less than a length away from being unbeaten in his career

SIRE: Shanghai Bobby is by Harlan’s Holiday, who also sired the nation’s reigning leading sire Into Mischief. Shanghai Bobby was a champion juvenile, with stakes victories ranging from sprints to the two turns of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He initially stood in Kentucky before moving to Japan, and Mandarin Hero is from his first crop of foals sired there. He has had the greatest success with his Southern Hemisphere shuttle progeny, siring Aero Trem, a Horse of the Year in Uruguay, as well as champions in Brazil and Chile.

DAM: Namura Nadeshiko, whose paternal grandsire is dual classic winner and breed-shaping sire Sunday Silence, is the dam of four winners from five starters, all at a mile or longer. The mare is a half-sister to Japanese Group 3 winner Tokai Mystery, and this is the extended family of English Group 3 winner and Epsom Oaks runner-up Freeze the Secret.

OUTLOOK: Santa Anita Derby runner-up Mandarin Hero, like his the other Japanese horses in this race, is the product of combining a sire with American dirt ability with a female family full of stamina.

STRENGTHS: He met winners for the first time in the Arkansas Derby and ran a respectable second to Angel of Empire, one of the leading Derby contenders. King Russell is a horse who wants distance, according to his connections, which is one reason he went from the maiden ranks to a prep for the Kentucky Derby. The prep at Oaklawn was held before a crowd of 65,000, and the packed grandstand and infield provided key raceday experience for the young horse ahead of the highly attended Kentucky Derby. He also has familiarity with Churchill Downs, as he raced at the track last year and it is a base for his trainer, Ron Moquett. Moquett and jockey Rafael Bejarano are coming off an Oaklawn meet in which they teamed to win 17 races.

WEAKNESSES: He’s on the also-eligible list and will need defections to draw into the body of the Derby. He earned a career-high Beyer Speed Figure of 87 in the Arkansas Derby, and the number lags 13 to 14 points behind the top Beyer Figures in the field – 101 and 100. He’s a closer and will have to navigate his way through a large field of runners.

BETTING VALUE: He will be one of the longest shots on the board if he gets in, but he was 58-1 last out when second in the Arkansas Derby. As a closer believed to be suited to the distance, he might be one to use underneath in the exotics. 

SIRE: Creative Cause, a Grade 1 winner as a juvenile, finished third in the 2012 Preakness Stakes. He has become one of the most consistent sons of the great Giant’s Causeway standing in the United States. Creative Cause’s progeny have succeeded at two turns on both dirt and turf, with runners like Pavel and Significant Form to his credit. He also is the sire of last year’s Preakness third place finisher Creative Minister.

DAM: Unraced Believe You Will is a full sister to 2012 Kentucky Oaks winner and stakes producer Believe You Can. Believe You Can is one of two Oaks winners sired by Proud Citizen, along with 2008 winner Proud Spell. Believe You Will is the dam of two winners from as many starters, with King Russell joined by Believe In Freedom, a winner at 1 1/8 miles on turf last year.

OUTLOOK: King Russell will need help to make the Kentucky Derby field, but once in, he has plenty of pedigree support to get the distance. – Nicole Russo