Zenyatta Stakes a puzzler for horsemen, horseplayers
ARCADIA, Calif. – A baffling edition of the Zenyatta Stakes on Sunday at Santa Anita may determine if the home team is represented in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Del Mar, or if this year’s Distaff is for visitors only.
A field of eight – seven California locals and one Midwest shipper – entered the Grade 2 Zenyatta, a BC Distaff Win and You’re In and a confounding race for both horsemen and horseplayers.
As Times Goes By is the fastest in the field based on races in spring, but even trainer Bob Baffert is uncertain about her current form. After winning two highly rated Grade 2s at Santa Anita in spring, As Time Goes By lost twice by double-digit margins.
“I don’t know, two puzzling efforts,” Baffert said early this week at Santa Anita. “We’ll see how she looks here. She’s doing well, and her starts were good here.”
As Time Goes By raced five times at Santa Anita – three wins, and two seconds.
:: Win big at Santa Anita: Get DRF Past Performances, Picks, Clocker Reports and Betting Strategies.
Private Mission is the second Baffert entrant, a lightly raced filly facing older stakes rivals for the first time after scratching last week from the age-restricted Grade 1 Cotillion at Parx Racing.
“I had her planned to go to the Cotillion,” Baffert said. “That looked like a pretty salty race, and the shipping arrangements were going to be against her. We’ll try her here, and if she runs well, we’ll put her in the Breeders’ Cup. If not, we’ll let her develop. She’s going to get better with age.”
Private Mission has raced only four times, won three, and at this stage may or may not be fast enough to defeat older stakes rivals. Her career-best Beyer Speed Figure is 89, which she earned last out winning the Grade 3 Torrey Pines at Del Mar by more than six lengths.
Then there is quirky Samurai Charm, whose idiosyncrasies are tolerated by trainer Peter Miller as her win streak has reached five. Two weeks ago, at Los Alamitos, Samurai Charm won a minor stakes by a head after ducking in and out multiple times in the stretch.
“If she stays straight, she wins by three,” Miller said. “I don’t know what the hell to do because she’s done that every race she’s run. We’ve already got blinkers on her. Maybe add a shadow roll, or a blindfold.”
Miller was joking about the blindfold. What’s not a joke is Samurai Charm’s form and speed. Samurai Charm is fast and will give front-runner Private Mission company.
If a pace duel develops, the Zenyatta could fall apart in favor of Miller’s second starter, the late-running Grade 1-placed (turf) California Kook.
“We’re going to take a shot with those two fillies,” Miller said. “They’re sharp, they’re in good form.”
They face a field with uncertain credentials. Lady Kate arrived from Kentucky one week ago following an 83-Beyer runner-up comeback; Miss Bigly, a minor stakes winner at Del Mar, makes her graded stakes debut in her 23rd career start. Miss Stormy D returns from a three-month layoff. Stellar Sound stretches out from a third-place finish in a four-horse field.
Barring a breakout performance, the winner of the 1 1/16-mile Zenyatta is likely to be a Distaff longshot against Kentucky- and New York-based division leaders Letruska, Shedaresthedevil, and Malathaat.
On the other hand, if the real As Time Goes By shows up Sunday, she could win the Zenyatta and provide a legitimate challenge to the BC Distaff visitors next month. To be fair, the recent subpar efforts by As Time Goes By include only one without an excuse.
As Time Goes By earned 97 Beyers in three successive races early this year, then bobbled badly at the start of the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch at Del Mar. She was unable to recover, and finished 14 lengths behind winner Shedaresthedevil.
But when she suffered a 13-length loss at Saratoga in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign, won by Letruska, As Time Goes By had no excuse. Perhaps she will return to form Sunday at her favorite track and win from off the pace under John Velazquez. But it requires a leap of faith to back a filly or mare in declining form. Perhaps retirement beckons.
Miss Bigly could score an off-the-pace upset in her first graded stakes. Since being transferred to trainer Phil D’Amato, she has gradually improved with three wins and two seconds in her last five starts, including a restricted stakes win last out at Del Mar.
“I really like how she’s coming into the race,” D’Amato said. “She’s training as good as she ever has. She has a win on this Santa Anita main strip, also. I’m looking for a good performance.”
Harvest Moon, the 2020 Zenyatta winner who is unraced since April, did not enter. She could return in the $100,000 Seashell Stakes on Nov. 3 at Del Mar.