Youth should rule in Sussex at Goodwood

Half the eight-horse field in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes on Wednesday at Goodwood is older horses, but if one of them wins it will cause a wholesale upset.

The older mile division in Europe this year is weak and the one-mile, straight-course Sussex - which is a 'Win and You're In' race for the Breeders' Cup Mile - is expected to boil down to the 3-year-olds Without Parole and Expert Eye. Unbeaten after four starts, Without Parole has long been the early favorite for the Sussex (race 4 on the second day of the Glorious Goodwood meeting, post time 10:35 Eastern), but Expert Eye has gotten strong support as well and as of Monday was no higher than 5-2.

John Gosden trains Without Parole in England, where he was bred, but the colt is owned by North Americans John and Tanya Gunther, father and daughter and breeders of Triple Crown winner Justify. John Gunther bred Without Parole by mating the great Frankel to the Lemon Drop Kid mare Without You Babe, and came up with a budding star.

Gosden tends to bring his young horses along gradually and so it was with Without Parole, who easily won his lone start last year at age 2, then captured minor races at Yarmouth and Sandown to start his 3-year-old season. When it was time to really test Without Parole, Gosden threw him into the deep end of the pool and Without Parole emerged with a Group 1 Royal Ascot success in the St. James’s Palace Stakes.

That was a race with a turn, but Without Parole appears to be responsive and adaptable. He should cope with the straight mile Wednesday and have no issues with ground turned good, good-to-firm in places after Sunday rain. Andrea Atzeni rides for the first time as regular jockey Frankie Dettori is serving a suspension.

Khalid Abdullah’s Juddmonte Farms homebred Expert Eye was all the rage last summer after wins in his first two starts, but clunked home last of nine as the odds-on favorite in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes last October. He then failed his second Group 1 test as well, finishing 10th in the English 2000 Guineas. But Expert Eye caught the eye again with a blowout win in the Group 3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot and might be ready for a battle with Without Parole on Wednesday.

The admirable 7-year-old Lightning Spear looks like the best hope among the older set, who concede seven pounds to 3-year-old rivals who might not need that much weight to prevail.