Yonkers: Thursday 8/22 Analysis

2019 STATS: 358 - 847 / $1,608.70 (-$85.30)
BEST BETS: 41 - 72 / $120.90 (-$23.10)
Best Bet: HYPNOTIC AM (6th)
Spot Play: FOOL ME ONCE (10th)
Race 7 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick-5 Pool
Race 1 - Excelsior A
(5) SMOOTH AFFAIR made some money in the NYSS but clearly seems better suited for this Excelsior level; she comes off a sick scratch and looks best if she's ready to go. (2) ASKMENOQUESTIONS raced well here in defeat last month and was aggressively handled before braking last week; threat if she minds her manners. (3) NASTY GAL overcame a break at Monti to win at odds-on last week and the filly clearly has more to offer. (1) LADY JETER seems to have improved for Daley with the hobbles added.
Race 2 - NW2 or $25,000 lifetime
(4) BRADY BUNCH probably should have won last week but it was a good effort nonetheless; I'll give the Erv Miller trainee another chance. (1) SKYWAY KON MAN takes a break from NYSS action for Smedshammer and he's sill looking for his first lifetime win; don't accept too short of a price on him. (3) WISHYOU'DTELLME ships out east and joins the DiDomenico barn; late-blooming trotter shows some decent efforts in his brief career. (2) KREDIT KARMA is another looking for that elusive initial victory and he's looked better recently.
Race 3 – Excelsior A
(3) C AND T’S CREDIT has really picked up her game recently for veteran horseman John Stark, Jr. and the filly lands in a good spot to make it three straight. (2) MAMA’S GIFT broke last out at Monti but her prior efforts were solid; threat if she minds her manners. (1) STARRYSTARRYNIGHT is another who’s in good form who should be a player from this inside draw. (7) MANNIE’S LADY took tote action in her lone local start but didn’t deliver; she’ll be a healthy price tonight.
Race 4 – F&M NW5000 in last 5 starts
(2) STONEBRIDGE HONEY was a pocket-sitting winner first off the Garcia-Herrera claim and she’s in line for another good trip from this spot. (5) BETTERTHANBRIE bumped up in class off the Temming claim and broke sitting a rail trip; she drops back to the proper level tonight and can be a player with Bartlett driving. (1) MAJORETTE ANGIE took plenty of support at the windows last out but never fired; I don’t know what to expect from her tonight. (4) DEUCES FOR CHARITY didn’t race badly last week and she can pick up a small share again.
Race 5 – NYSS
(3) LOVE A GOOD STORY is perfect in her brief career showing good speed and versatility; Julie Miller trainee will be heavily favored to win again. (4) SORPRESE raced very well here last month for Dan Daley and she could add some value underneath. (1) MISS JUBILATION dominated last out at Monticello for Svanstedt but the filly did break here last month; use caution. (2) WITHOUT A WARNING is another with some ability but she has misbehaved in her last two half-mile tries.
Race 6 – NYSS
(2) HYPNOTIC AM is another extremely talented trotter from the Marcus Melander barn and she’s returning locally off an effortless win in the Doherty at The Meadowlands; tough to go against her despite the short price. (1) SEVENTIMESALADY is riding a three-race win streak for Svanstedt and she’s primed to complete a very small exacta. (3) MUNSTER raced well the two starts Stratton was in the bike. (4) REALLY BLUE CHIP was second best in a start here last month and the DiDomenico trainee gets Brennan in the bike tonight.
Race 7 – NW4 or $50,000 lifetime
(1) HOLIDAY HANGOVER moves all the way inside but more importantly goes back to the catch-driving Stratton; only concern is that he may be a bit overbet. (3) PHOTO BOMBER has some speed which could set him up with a nice trip at a price. (5) CONWAY KELLYANNE leaves the NYSS for this overnight event and is second-time hobbles; improves? (2) FIRST MAESTRO moves to the Harris barn and maybe that wakes him up.
Race 8 – F&M NW10000 in last 5 starts
(4) SCWARTZ BROS BEATY effectively bottomed out the field last week and now she moves to the Banca barn off the claim looking for four straight. (2) CAVIART CHERIE tired badly versus better in her first start for the Andrew Harris barn; mare has a ton of speed and talent and would obviously be no surprise if she stepped up and won this. (3) ROSE RUN TONI ran out of track chasing the top choice last out; post relief obviously helps. Any of the rest here seem capable of hitting the ticket.
Race 9 – NW4 or $50,000 lifetime
(6) ARABELLA’S CADET is fresh stock from Canada joining the potent Lance Hudson barn and Stratton hops on board; obvious player. (1) STATE OFMYHEAD AS broke in his local debut but anything from the Lorentzon barn with Bartlett driving has to be respected. (3) WARRIOR ONE has been ultra-consistent in all local starts. (2) SWAN IN THE VALLEY trotted evenly midpack last week and the Allard filly should show more speed from this spot.
Race 10 – NW5000 in last 5 starts
(5) FOOL ME ONCE took the money as expected and raced big in defeat in his local return; Team Bongiorno veteran will be making his way back up the class ladder, starting with tonight. (1) WIND BLAST has been inconsistent for Hudson but obviously the post relief helps. (4) OUTLOUD broke upon arrival from Hoosier so it’s hard to gauge how he will perform tonight. (2) MAAJAACKKOBE toured the track last week versus better but finished up okay; class and post relief could make him a contender.
Race 11 – NW8 or $100,000 lifetime
(2) MAGIC MVP has been rock-solid for the Charlie Norris barn and his two wins this year have come with Holland in the bike; top billing. (1) IMF trotted evenly last out and the Gannon, Jr. trainee has generally done good things here; speed from the best post makes her a player. (4) FASHION FOREVER doesn’t win often but he’ll be gaining late. (7) MAX ships in for Burke and he’s been racing decently over at Pocono; we’ll see how he fits in here.
Race 12 – NW10000 in last 5 starts
(1) DOCTOR BUTCH was jammed in most of the way last week versus better; Banca-trained veteran would appear to have no excuses here; short price looming in the finale. (6) JM JACK OF HEARTS was second best last start after dropping back to this NW10000 level and I’m sure Brennan will have him in play early. (8) HOT DEUCE fits with these and was Siegelman’s choice; outside post is an obvious concern, however. (4) WAVES OF FIRE has shown nothing recently but maybe Stratton can squeeze something out of him.