Yonkers: Monday 10/14 Analysis

MEET STATS: 228 - 625 / $1,187.20 (-$62.80)
BEST BETS: 29 - 55 / $90.50 (-$19.50)
SPOT PLAYS: 13 - 55 / $110.80 (+0.80)
BEST BET - ESCAPETOTHEBEACH (12th)
SPOT PLAY - ON THE VIRG (10th)
Race 1 - F&M NW2/25000LT Pace
(2) GREEN POINT ships down from Canada and into Blackler's barn. This is a move that has worked previously with other horses, and I'll go with her from a good post. Was also Bartlett's pick over the morning line second choice. (8) SWEET SHE ROCK got a nifty drive by Zeron last Monday and just missed. Probably needs similar good racing fortune tonight but both her efforts for DiDomenico have been excellent. (1) LOVE AMERICANSTYLE rallied to get a check in the Simpson down at Harrah's Philly most recently. She may have needed that race given the time off, and she's hit the board locally in this class before.
Race 2 - NW5000L5/12500CLM Trot
(3) MR POWERS has finished second twice recently to Clarion Hall, who has been on a roll in this class. Gets away from that foe tonight, so while the break two back does concern me, I think he's the sharpest horse and I'll give him a shot. (1) TROPICAL TRICE gets back to the pole tonight and exits the amateur races. Marohn stayed loyal to the Harmon barn and took this one over my top pick. (2) ELDORADO OF GOLD S had a four race win streak at Tioga but then had a tough go at Pocono and Harrah's Philly. I feel like he might get overbet with Stratton driving instead of the trainer, so I'll try to beat him off those two bad lines.
Race 3 - NW2/25000LT Pace
(8) CHIEFS BEACH is on a dreadful run of luck with bad draws, and that continues tonight. There doesn't seem to be an abundance of early speed in this race, so I think Brennan can get to the front or to a spot somewhere near the pace and hopefully get the job done from there. (1) ROGUE CHEDDAR has the rail for the third straight week, in contrast to my top choice. Holland was listed on three in this race and picked this one, so I think he might be sitting on a good mile. (2) PINE BUSH ROCKET comes down from Monticello in great form, but I'll need to see one here at Yonkers.
Race 4 - F&M NW4/50000LT Pace
(5) SOMETHING REEL got mixed up in a speed duel last Monday over the off track, then got shuffled back and could never get involved again. Let's see if she can get a smoother journey at hopefully a better price. (3) MAJOR FROST returns to Yonkers tonight after a solid mile against NW3's at Harrah's Philadelphia. Out-draws some of the fancied contenders here, and Harder's barn has been red-hot out of town lately. (8) CAMPUS QUEEN backed up that qualifier with a clear win from first-over a week ago. She shifts to the outside draw here, and I'll go elsewhere.
Race 5 - NW4/50000LT Pace
(2) SILAS SEELSTER was unable to get into contention from post seven a week ago, but he gets post relief from that race, and his local debut two back was strong. Solid trainer/driver combo here too. (1) NOTWITHOUTAFIGHT gets the pole tonight after a series of outside draws. He won impressively at Yonkers over NW2's back in the summer and Marohn Jr. stays aboard. (6) BAD LOAD backed up his win on 9-30 with a rallying second last week, falling just a nose short. Probably the one to beat here.
Race 6 - F&M NW8/100000LT / F&M NW6/75000LT Drawn Inside Pace
(2) EDGE OF ETERNITY didn't show much in her first start here, but based on her recent wins at The Meadows, I don't think that was indicative of her talent level. I think we'll see quite a bit of improvement tonight from an inside draw and her second time racing for DiDomenico. (1) ART LECTURE went a ridiculous mile last Monday, sticking around to finish second despite being hung the mile. Holland picked off, but Siegelman should be able to get her a clean journey from the inside. (3) MAY BRIDE HANOVER took a stakes shot down at Harrah's Philly and wound up fourth. She owns a prior win over NW8's here at Yonkers and is a main danger.
Race 7 - NW4/50000LT Pace *$10K GTD Pick 5*
(8) WHATS INTHE ESKY A fits under the money earned condition, so he gets another chance to race against NW4's after winning two straight in the class. Might even get a bit of value since he has the outside this time. (2) HEAD TO THE BEACH debuts tonight for trainer Virgil Morgan Jr. Qualified nicely down at Freehold, beating the open-class mare Miss You N from off-the-pace and has Bartlett's services. (5) ISITLIKEITLOOKS made front and just held on by the slimmest of margins in another NW4 division a week ago. I think that was a weaker group than the one he meets up with here, and I'll use underneath.
Race 8 - NW15000L5/Winners of NW10000L5 in Last Start Pace
(8) MACH TIME N enters this race off two straight wins against lesser. Looks like he'll have a chance to make front again and maybe he can wire this group as well. (4) LUCIANO N has had a series of outside draws, but he gets a mid-pack post tonight. He's always a threat at this sort of level, but he's been taking plenty of action lately without winning, and I'll bank on that not changing tonight. (2) LORD OF MISRULE hasn't been able to find the winner's circle at Yonkers this year, owning just a one-for-24 record, but he hasn't been bad at the NW10000L5 level and has an inside slot on the gate.
Race 9 - F&M NW6/75000LT Pace
(3) SHECANDANCE N steps up to the NW6 class tonight, but I don't see that being a big issue with the way she has performed since coming to the U.S., and she draws well tonight also. Impressive win last Monday. (6) MONEY SHOT HANOVER won her debut for Bongiorno against NW4's at Yonkers, then was a good second against NW5's at Harrah's Philly. Returns north tonight, and she might be on the lead again. (5) BRONSKIMACKENZIE A has been out in Ohio lately but ships back east tonight for a high-percentage barn. This mare has prior winning experience here as well.
Race 10 - NW7500L5/Winners of NW5000L5 in Last Start Pace
(5) ON THE VIRG wound up with post eight, a trailing post nine, and post seven in his last three, so he was up against it from the get-go. Has post five tonight, which gives Dube some more options, including being aggressive like in his last win back on 7-30, and he meets up with a beatable field as he gets a bit of class relief too. (1) WARMINSTER A can definitely win here from the pole after rallying for third last time out, but he lacks early speed and might wind up first-over or at the mercy of finding live cover. (3) ZACH MAGUIRE N has Zeron to drive tonight and has been decent in his last two efforts.
Race 11 - NW8/100000LT / NW6/75000LT Drawn Inside Pace
(4) DA DELIGHTFUL came back with a sharp mile off the layoff on 9-23, rolling to a win on the engine. He hasn't made a start since then, but based on the way he performed off just one qualifier, I think he'll be okay. (1) CAVIART MAX finished with a big kick last Monday and rolled by to a win. He drew well again tonight and is definitely a threat here. (7) IDEAL FLIP slides back to the NW8 level after racing against 4YO opens and NW30000L5's in his recent local efforts. He's beat similar to these before, and there's nothing wrong with his form, but I'll take a shot against from an outside draw.
Race 12 - NW6/75000LT Pace
(3) ESCAPETOTHEBEACH appears to be a standout here as he returns to overnight competition after some efforts against stakes company. Won easily at Yonkers back on 9-9. (1) AMERICAN ADMIRAL keeps finishing second to tough foes, and I can't see that changing with my top pick in here. He was second to him in that race on September 9. (5) YEAHNAH got dispatched by the well-meant DA Delightful when he won on 9-23, but he was a good second on September 9 and August 26.