Yonkers: Analysis for Saturday 9/9

MEET STATS: 22-9-5-4 / $41.20 (-$2.80)

BEST BETS: 2-0-1-0 / $0.00 (-4.00)

SPOT PLAYS: 2-0-1-1 / $0.00 (-$4.00)

BEST BET: INSTAGRAM MODEL (9^th)

SPOT PLAY: SOUTHWIND TYRION (5^th)

Race 1: $225K NY Sire Stakes 2YO Filly Trot Final - Pick 4

(1) R MELINA has only one loss on her record and that came when she made a rare miscue before the start. New driver Tetrick should get her away no worse than the pocket with a big chance to score. (6) SENORITA PALEMA comes off a track record performance at Monticello. Ake is back in the bike now but the tactics should be the same. (5) SADBIRDSTILLSING has displayed early speed on occasion but she's unlikely to leave as fast as #6. Buter stays here over #1 and she's been as consistent as they come.

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Race 2: $225K NY Sire Stakes 2YO C&G Pace Final

(3) HUNTINGFORCHROME lands in the perfect spot to gun to the front and sit no worse than a pocket trip early (I'd expect a quarter move). While his best performance gets the job done, there are other capable colts in here including (6) BOSTON ROCKS, who seems like potentially the fastest off the gate and capable of making the trip work for him as well. (5) VANDIEMEN BLUECHIP has won two straight but might get out-kicked off the gate. That would mean hoping for a smooth journey.

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Race 3: $225K NY Sire Stakes 2YO C&G Trot Final

(5) SITUATIONSHIP gets one of the best posts at Yonkers and that is ideal here as it will allow him to make the front and have a huge edge on the other outside speed. (3) BARGAIN is not one of my favorite horses but he's another that got lucky at the draw. Gingras is back in the bike and he should have this guy sitting the pocket trip at worst. (8) KEEP ASKING seems very content coming hard from the back of the pack and that could serve him very well if #6 and #7 insist on leaving hard and pushing the pace to insane levels.

Race 4: $225K NY Sire Stakes 3YO C&G Trot Final

This looks like a wide-open race to me on paper and I definitely want some value on my tickets. (2) HUNTING HULA could represent that value at 20-1 on the morning line. She only has one win this year but is capable of sitting back off a fast pace and closing hard if room exists. (1) SEA PEARL owns three NYSS wins and the inside post could allow her to secure vital position early. (6) BRONX BARISTA is another that seems best from behind who could get a nice setup if others leave hard. (7) CAMERICAN has never been worse than second in seven starts but the post presents some issues.

Race 5: $250K Bob Miecuna Invitational Trot - Minimum $139,899 Carryover Pick 5 - Mandatory Payout

(6) SOUTHWIND TYRION has never been on a half-mile track but is clearly a very handy horse. His losses have come against the elite in this division and those foes are in the International Trot; one to beat. (2) M-M'S DREAM will certainly push away to avoid the traffic from the second tier starters and should be near the front; respect. (7) HILLEXOTIC has won his last three starts over the track and was second in this race last year. He'll certainly have company when he tries for the front early and that may sting him a bit too much.

Race 6: $225K NY Sire Stakes 2YO Filly Pace Final

(4) CHAPERCRAZ owns a track record at Buffalo and just missed one at Batavia. That said, I wouldn't call him "consistent" so don't take less than 2-1. (8) CECIL HANOVER has big early speed and is most definitely capable of making the front despite post 8; using in Pick 5. (6) KIERKEGAARD K was used up chasing #3 and spent much of the mile trying to keep pace before tiring badly. Let's count that race as an anomaly and expect he could come firing late if the pace is hot.

Race 7: $1,000,000 MGM Yonkers International Trot

This is really a great edition of the International Trot as you can seriously make a case for at least half the field on the win end. Trip always plays a major factor but even more so on a half-mile track. (1) VIVID WISE AS appears most likely to avoid trouble due to his ability to sprint off the gate enough to secure a close-up position and then "live" on the rim if he comes away worse than the pocket. He's the top pick at 5-2 or higher. No horse in this race is worth lower odds. (9) JIGGY JOG is my surprise horse from the field. She's been very handy this year and should get away in good order starting behind the top pick. The month off may bother some people but trainer Ake Svanstedt is a master at preparing horses off the bench - see Maple Leaf Trot winner Alrajah One. (3) IT'S ACADEMIC gets his true acid test today in my mind. He's perfectly drawn and should be able to get a good trip. If he is the best trotter in North America than he'll find a way. The only thing (2) ETONNANT has to fear is Etonnant himself. If he can behave, he's clearly the horse to beat. The question becomes whether his price will be worth the risk. (5) HIERRO BOKO is the fastest horse in Europe this year and all indications are that he'll handle the tight turns here nicely; trip threat.

Race 8: $225K NY Sire Stakes 3YO Filly Pace Final - Pick 4

As much as I want to find a way to beat odds-on favorite (7) EARTHWINDFIRE due to the bad post, it really is hard to make a case for which of these horse can step up and down her. She's only lost once in 2023 and that was to one of the best filly pacers in North America. (2) TURN ON THE CHARM has made a good career out of chasing the top pick and getting big checks. If she gets a trip and #7 gets roughed up, maybe an upset is possible. (6) VIVIANS DREAM was once a filly I thought could win this race. Maybe her last win was a sign of good things to come or perhaps she just benefited from a good trip.

Race 9: $225K NY Sire Stakes 3YO Filly Trot Final

(5) INSTAGRAM MODEL was perhaps gunning for some bigger prizes this year but winning today would be a nice consolation. She simply seems a step faster than these. (3) ROYAL FILLY is a very nice daughter of Chapter Seven who at her best should give the top one a run for her money, though she couldn’t come close the last time they met. Rules in each state differ but I wonder if Ake Svanstedt can drive (2) GIGI HANOVER when he owns #1, so don't be shocked if we see a late driver change. Either way, this horse has turned the corner lately and has good early speed.

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Race 10: $250K Aria Invitational Pace

This is a strong field but in the end I keep coming down to the best horses figuring out a way to be in the top spots. (6) BYTHEMISSAL put in a big mile in defeat last time to Tattoo Artist, who seems to own Canadian soil. Ron Burke trainee has half-mile track experience and you know he'll be forwardly placed. (3) ALLYWAG HANOVER has never been on a track this size and for some that might be a concern; not for me. He's handy enough to do fine here as long as the trip works out. (5) STONEBRIDGE HELIOS is another without half-mile track experience and there is also the issue of what kind of trip he'll work out. The talent is there, though. (2) LEONIDAS A comes off a nice effort and he loves this track; underneath price play.

Race 11: $225K NY Sire Stakes 3YO C&G Pace Final

(5) HUNTINTHELASTDOLAR has been a horse I've been high on since he set foot on U.S. soil. This race won't be a cakewalk but if he makes the front without having to work too hard it could be over. (2) METAL MAN has been right there week after week. If he gets a reasonable trip, watch out! (1) THUNDER HUNTER JOE goes for three straight and has pylon position; very dangerous. (6) GOLDIN GREATNESS probably needs some pace help but isn't out of this race.