Yonkers: Analysis for Saturday 9/12

MEET STATS: 143 - 420 / $856.70 (+$16.70)
BEST BETS: 24 - 43 / $84.40 (-$1.60)
SPOT PLAYS: 8 - 43 / $55.00 (-$31.00)
BEST BET - HYPNOTIC AM (2nd)
SPOT PLAY - TOWN GOSSIP (5th)

Race 1 - NY Sire Stakes 2YO Filly Pace Final

(6) TEST OF FAITH is an interference break at Tioga from being five-for-five. She's been great on the half-mile, including the one start here, and she's surely the one to beat. (3) HEART OF MINE won in track record time up at Saratoga most recently and does have a post advantage over my top pick. She gets Bartlett in the bike, too. (1) DC BATGIRL finished second to Test Of Faith in the sire stakes leg at Yonkers on August 4 and might be able to protect position from the rail draw and follow along for a piece of the ticket.

Race 2 - NY Sire Stakes 3YO Filly Trot Final

(3) HYPNOTIC AM hasn't been able to win at the Grand Circuit level this year, but she's never lost against New York-sired foes in her career, and I'll trust her to keep that mark going tonight. (5) LOVE A GOOD STORY is in the midst of another stellar campaign and is riding a three-race win streak. Hypnotic AM beat her squarely in the Empire Breeders Classic final at Vernon the one time they met in New York in 2020, so I have to put her second. (2) NO MAS DRAMA draws inside of my top two selections and should be able to follow them for a rail trip.

Race 3- NY Sire Stakes 2YO Filly Trot Final

(3) DESTINED TO DANCE finished five-for-five in the preliminary rounds of the sire stakes program, and I think can get another win here in the final. It looks like she might prefer the smaller track as her biggest margins of victory came over half-mile ovals, including a romp at Yonkers on the 21st of July. (6) ITERATION is a full sister to Gimpanzee, who won the sire stakes final at both 2 and 3. She's done nothing wrong, but Destined To Dance beat her pretty handily when they faced off at Tioga. (7) INSURED AM S gives trainer Marcus Melander a second finalist, to go along with Iteration. She won her division of the sire stakes at Yonkers on 7-21 and hasn't missed the board in four appearances overall.

Race 4 - NY Sire Stakes 2YO C&G Trot Final

(5) AHUNDREDDOLLARBILL was two-for-two with Bartlett driving until he broke stride at Tioga most recently. He did that earlier this year and then had no lingering issues, so I'll hope history repeats itself and put him on top. (3) AMBASSADOR HANOVER is yet to lose in the sire stakes program, owning a four-for-four record. He's certainly logical and I couldn't blame anybody for going with him, especially since he owns a win over the track. (1) STEEL remains a maiden but did finish second or third in three of his five NYSS races, including a second to Ambassador Hanover at Saratoga.

Race 5 - NY Sire Stakes 2YO C&G Pace Final

(2) TOWN GOSSIP will be my upset choice in this final. He won two sire stakes legs and was a runner-up three times here at Yonkers. I like that he draws inside, and I'll hope Joe Bongiorno engineers a winning plan. (5) AMERICAN COURAGE appeared unbeatable most of the year, but there were horses gaining at him in the win on 8-18, and then he was scratcked at Vernon. I absolutely respect him and his connections, but I'll take a swing against. (6) KING JAMES EXPRESS comes in off his best performance to date up at Vernon. He closed in 27 4/5 from off-the-pace at Yonkers in the sire stakes round prior to that, so I think Bartlett has some options on how he wants to handle him.

Race 6 - NY Sire Stakes 3YO Filly Pace Final

(4) RACINE BELL enters the final with four straight victories, including her sire stakes flight on 8-3 at Yonkers. She is outside the two other logical horses in this race, but she's very quick off the gate, so I'll hope Bartlett can beat them out of there and then yield to one of them. (3) HEN PARTY is the pretty clear leader of this division, but she was upset at Yonkers in a separate division from the one my top pick competed in. Andrew McCarthy has been her regular pilot, but he is unavailable tonight, so Tim Tetrick picks up the live catch drive. (2) SO RUDE has knocked heads with Hen Party multiple times recently, and though Hen Party has won the majority of them, she was able to defeat her in that NYSS event on the 3rd of August. Bongiorno has the inside advantage at the gate, so it'll be interesting to see how aggressive he is.

Race 7 - NY Sire Stakes Final 3YO C&G Trot

(4) CHAPTIAMA shows wins from off-the-pace last time at Vernon, on the lead here and at Saratoga, and from first-up at Tioga. I like to see that kind of ability coming into a big race like this, and also that trainer Trond Smedshammer goes to Brian Sears. (1) HOBBS just missed by a nose up at Vernon but had four straight victories prior to that, including at Yonkers on the 14th of July. He got the best of the draw, too, and will be a big threat. (5) BERKERY J has been a little disappointing since his sire stakes triumph at Vernon in late June, but he was about to take the lead at Vernon before getting interfered with and breaking. He closed in 27 3/5 in his NYSS race at Yonkers in mid-July and was just a neck behind Chaptiama at the wire.

Race 8 - NY Sire Stakes Final 3YO C&G Pace

(1) SPLASH BROTHER wound up winless in 2019, but he's been terrific as a sophomore, winning five-of-eight. He tallied impressively at Tioga and Saratoga in his last two, and I expect him to be on the lead from the pole. (6) MAJOR BETTS has been right on Splash Brother's back in the last two races but hasn't been able to hang with him. This horse is capable of going a big mile when he's on top of his game, and he does get Dexter Dunn back in the bike. (3) IDEAL PERCEPTION draws well tonight after having post eight at Tioga and post six at Saratoga. He was just a head behind Major Betts at Batavia and was third-placed-second at Yonkers back on July 28.

Race 9 - Open Handicap Pace

(1) FLAMING FLUTTER N takes a second stab at the Open level after finishing fourth two starts back. I think this is a little bit easier group that he met up with in that edition of the Open, and I've really liked pretty much every race this horse has gone since coming to the States. I think having the pole will pay off for him. (5) GRATIAN HANOVER won in the Open back on the 24th of July when he was on the lead. He's had a series of outside draws since then, so maybe Bongiorno fires him tonight from a better post. (7) AMERICAN MERCURY has finished third in all of his starts thus far for Pelling, and that's where I'll slot him again tonight from this same outside slot he had two appearances ago.