Woodbine Mohawk Park: Tuesday 9/4 Analysis
Best Bet: A BOY NAMED SUUZZ (7th)
Spot Play: STAR BUSTER (8th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,3,9/2,3,4/2,6,7/1,4,7/4 = $16.20
EARLY PICK 4: 1,4,7/4/2,5,7,8/5 = $12
LATE PICK 4: 7,9/3,4,5/3,7/5,9,10 = $36
MEET STATS: 303 - 937 / $1,745.50 BEST BETS: 52 - 85 / $181.30
SPOT PLAYS: 29 - 82 / $165.90
Race 1
(3) TYMAL HOUDINI drops into a spot where he might be able to go wire-to-wire; slight nod. (2) SCARLETT RAIDER adds Lasix coming off a decent Gold effort when starting from an outer post. He looks like the main threat. (9) MISSION HILL brought $335K at the Lexington sale and while he appears to have talent, I doubt he'll be rushed at this stage. I see him closing from the back for a slice here. (8) SHAKE A LEG was very good last start and he merits a look for the exotics here.
Race 2
(3) THE POWER OF MANY has raced well out of the Fellows barn in all four starts since being claimed. She gets top call here. (2) ZEUS LIGHTNING is right there in starts where he doesn't break, and he should contend here again if he stays flat. (4) STONEBRIDGE HALL raced large when claimed and moving into the Puddy barn and picking up McNair, he is another who can win in this small but contentious field. (1) ROSESAREEXPLOSIVE continues to race well and take shares and she could better this placing with a decent trip.
Race 3
(6) FACE THE CHALLENGE's race two back would give him a very good chance in here and I'll forgive his poor effort from the 8-hole at Hanover and give him the nod. (7) MACH WEST won in a similar class three starts back and he fits better here too; using. (2) BIG KIZ contends every week and one of these times he'll get that maiden win, although he may have trouble beating both top choices here. (3) BOYS TURN comes off a good effort at Hanover and picks up Roy; consider for exotics.
Race 4
(4) JAKE got a clean line coming off the Earl Rowe break now he moves inside so I expect an aggressive try here. (1) MARQUIS VOLO closes well every week and he should be a late threat here. (7) TRY TRY AGAIN trotted a 54 3/5 back 1/2 last week and now he moves in a couple of posts which could give him a better chance to mount a challenge at the head of the lane. (6) MAJESTIC PRESENCE's good gate speed gives her a chance to hit the ticket in a race with several possibilities.
Race 5
(4) HEISMAN PLAYER couldn't keep up to the likes of Stag Party last time, but he fits much better here and should be tough. (5) SPORTY MCSPORTSTER has also been facing tougher and he was only a 1/2 length back of the choice three starts back when racing in a class similar to this one. (3) FAST N FIRST won as the big chalk vs. non-winners of two and he isn't out of this although trip will probably be tougher this time. (8) TWIN B JAYS also comes off a sharp win but he will likely find some of these tougher.
Race 6
(7) PAPPY GO GO drops to a class where he should improve sharply; slight nod. (8) FREE WILLY HANOVER also drops, and he will likely get hammered at the windows, but he is a contender in this field. (5) PARKHILL NONSTOP is capable if he can work out a very good trip, but he is more likely to finish on the edges. (2) WHISKEY TAX is still looking for his first win of the year, but he'll likely get it soon using his good tactical speed to trip out.
Race 7
(5) A BOY NAMED SUUZZ goes to Moreau coming off a win and he seems like the “now” horse in a class where that distinction changes frequently; top call. (8) NEEDLECREST fell just short to the choice last time and he looks next best here, but it's hard to predict the trip he'll get starting from out there. (4) JENKINS CREEK will likely try to wire them again and he's always a threat, but the choice is going better right now. (3) WELL DID has some longshot appeal, especially if he can work out a better trip.
Race 8
(9) STAR BUSTER was a bit tough to steer coming down the lane on Friday night, but there was no mistaking that he was full of trot. I'll stick with him here if he goes. (7) CRESURREY is the likely chalk taking a big class drop and he's the one to beat. (8) DOTTIE puts in consistently good efforts and she should hit the ticket here again. (6) LMC MASS OAK is a bit sneaky here in that he has beat better in the past and he might be a good one to add on deeper late Pick 4 tickets.
Race 9
(5) LINDY THE GREAT has been just that in his two starts here since shipping in and his price will be better here. I'll give him the edge over (4) DUNBAR HALL, who obviously fits like a glove here with the best local Preferred horses having raced in the Maple Leaf Trot on Saturday night. (3) INTERNATIONAL MONI should be better here coming back much quicker; using. (1) CATCH THE DREAM comes off a game win, but he likely gets relegated to a smaller share in this field.
Race 10
(3) IL SOGNO DREAM sticks out on class here and he should be tough to beat with perhaps his only challenge coming from the veteran (7) ODDS ON AMETHYST, who also takes a big class drop. I'll use these two in the Pick 4. (2) WINNING LYRIC is in great form and he should be closing for a slice here. (4) R FIRST CLASS can set the pace again, but I don't see him beating both top choices.
Race 11
(5) CHEYENNE FORD drops back to the level he last won at and he should get a good trip near the front again here; slight nod. (9) LATE NIGHT drops to the bottom claimer out of conditioned races and he may be all systems go here - more so if there is a claim entered on him. (10) SINGHAMPTON KENNY goes back to Moreau and is an obvious contender, but the 10-hole is often the great equalizer. (4) LIGHT FOOT RD should be in the thick of things again here and he could better this placing if he gets a good trip. (2) CAMS TUX paced his best mile in 18 starts this year last time and he's another that could finish higher than this prediction, although he has frequent gait issues.
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