Woodbine Mohawk Park: Tuesday 9/3 Analysis

Meet Stats – 238 – 679 / $1,246.90 (-$128.50)
Best Bets – 40 – 66 / $118.50 (-$15.90)
Spot Plays – 21 – 66 / $105.80 (- $22.30)
Best Bet – SO MUCH MORE – (10TH)
Spot Play – RIPPED AND READY (8TH)
Pick 5 – 5,8,10/5,7,8/6/2,3,8/2,5,7,8 = $23.60
Early Pick 4 – 2,3,8/2,5,7,8/6,7/5,8 = $48
Late Pick 4 – 3,5,6,8/3/4,7,8/7 = $12
Race 1 - ONTARIO SIRES STAKES - GRASSROOTS - **GTD $50K Pick 5**
(8) MR ARCH has displayed good late kick in both his wins, and he’ll be the one they are trying to catch here; top call. (5) LIFEISGOOD HANOVER has only had Macdonald drive twice and in both starts the gelding finished 2nd in a Grassroots race. He should be right there tonight. (10) LOVEDBYTHEMASSES is the best horse on paper here, but the 10-hole – which yields only 6% winners in trot races – can be the great equalizer. Let price be your guide here. (3) BEADS is worth a look for the exotics on the barn change.
Race 2 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES – GRASSROOTS
(5) MAGIC BOB was an easy Grassroots winner two starts back then had a good tightener for this Grassroots race. Expect early aggression here. (8) NORTHERN SULTAN ruined his chances when he imploded late in the mile last time. He will be a threat if he can stay trotting. (7) ENDURING STRENGTH put it all together last time and he improved his final 1/4 time in the process. He’s in with a chance here. (4) HALL OF SECRETS showed improvement last time and his quick third 1/4 sticks out; using underneath at a price.
Race 3 – NW $26,500 L5 or 150,000 LT AE: OPT. CLM. $60,000. AE: Mares
(6) LINDY THE GREAT has been outstanding since he arrived at Mohawk park and he’ll take beating here again. (4) SORTIE had a horrendous uncovered trip last time and he kept coming showing great determination. He could blow up the exotics here because he is likely to get dismissed moving up off a loss. (2) ROYAL WITCH hung on against similar, but she may find the choice to tough here. (1) B YOYO should be in the hunt for a share starting from the inside.
Race 4 – CLM HDP $18,000 to $25,000 **GTD $50K Pick 4**
(2) DEVILS PEAK showed some late interest, but the pace wasn’t slowing in his comeback race. I’ll give him a slight nod in a tough race that will come down to trip. (8) LEADER TONIGHT has done well since the claim three starts back. And he looks like a good price option here. (3) TOPVILLE CHROME has hit his best stride and it’s hard to leave out a Moreau/Roy horse in a race that looks wide-open. (4) ZEN DA BALLYKEEL never misses the board it seems, so he may be rated a little low here, but I prefer to use him underneath only and I’ll be using the top three in the Pick 4.
Race 5 – Ontario Sired 3YO Fillies Grassroots Starters in 2019, NW $11,600 L5
Another wide-open race and I’ll side with the fillies that exit the fastest race starting with (8) CRANBERRY BRIE who tries hard every week no matter what the classification is. (7) TWIN B FRIENDLY woke up with a better try last time and she finished just ahead of the choice; using. (5) ROYALTY AGAIN gets an improved post here and she should get put into the race this time. (2) MANHATTAN NIGHT is back with her own age group and class and she fits here. She is another possibility in a contentious race.
Race 6 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES – GRASSROOTS – 2YO Colts and Geldings
(7) GRETZKY SEELSTER was a narrow loser on debut when racing in a Grassroots race then raced evenly. Back in Grassroots here, the expectation is that he will get put into action early; top call. (6) I GOT THE LOOKS has a similar profile and exits the same race as the choice and he is another that I’ll use in this Pick 4. (5) LESS NESSMAN is improving and he should get a piece of this if he stays flat. (2) YOUBOOZEYOULOSE is another lightly-raced colt who can win this with a clean trip. It makes sense to price shop in this race.
Race 7 – 4 YO and Younger, NW 2 or $29,500 LT – Pick 4
(8) QUAN BLUE CHIP’s race two back is probably good enough to win this and his race last time from the 10-hole is a toss. He gets a driver change for this; price look. (5) ST LADS THRILLER is worth a look on the driver change to McClure. (6) PREMIER ROCKSTAR is right there every week, with 9 Exacta finishes in 11 starts; using. (3) CASEYS DRAGON exits a very fast race and he should be much closer vs. this group.
Race 8 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS – 2YO Colts and Geldings
(3) RIPPED AND READY was a huge winner in his only Grassroots start and he is hard to go against here, but he’ll bring a short price. (8) FIT BITT has some of the best form of these and has been sure-gaited which counts for something at this point; using underneath. (7) AWESOMEDABRA should be better here if he stays flat but I prefer to use him on the bottom of Tris and Supers. (1) SECRETS JUSTICE raced better last time. He’s worth a look for the bottom of the Super.
Race 9 – NW 7 or $121,500 LT
(4) HEY LIVVY is all or nothing. If she stays trotting, she likely wins here, but her gait issues are always a concern. (8) KNIGHT ANGEL has really come into his own this summer and he is a contender here, but, keep in mind that he is in between stakes engagements here. (7) HEY JOCK is always right there, and he should contend here despite the class rise. (6) NOTHING BUT MUSCLE will be passing some rivals late here and he could sneak onto the Tri or Super ticket.
Race 10 – Ontario Sired 3YO Fillies Grassroots Starters in 2019
(7) SO MUCH MORE faced much tougher most recently and she should handle these if she gets put into the race early. (6) WINDSONG PARISIAN has improved recently and she’s worth a price look for the Exacta here. (2) TWIN B TIPSTER consistently brings a good effort every race and she is hard to leave off the Tri. (3) FREYA SELESTER should get a decent trip here and come on late for a share. (1) SPORTS FLIX is another who should sit a good following trip and come on late for a share.