Woodbine Mohawk Park: Tuesday 9/18 Analysis
Best Bet: LYONS JAVELIN (10th)
Spot Play: FLIPPING FUN (2nd)
MEET STATS: 340 - 1044 / $1,957.40 BEST BETS: 55 - 93 / $191.10
SPOT PLAYS: 30 - 91 / $173.80
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,3,9/5/2,3,4/2,7,8/3,5,9,10 = $21.60
EARLY PICK 4: 2,7,8/3,5,9,10/3,4,7/7 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 2,5,6/3,5,8/5/2,5,7 = $27
Race 1
(3) LIFETIME ROYALTY lands in an easier spot here and McNair should supply an aggressive drive; top call. (2) ZIG ZAG was an easy winner two back then unsuccessfully tried the Grand Circuit. He looks like the main danger. (9) TYMAL HOUDINI got untracked when he dropped out of OSS Gold company and he is worth a look here off that win. (1) GRIMMIE HANOVER faced some tough ones last time. He might be able to hit the ticket here.
Race 2
(5) FLIPPING FUN gets back on the big track here and her effort here two back puts here right there with these; slight nod. (7) P L LIGHTNING can contend here if she lays closer and maybe McClure will send her this time in this shorter field. (6) SHE CAN PARTY does well when she leaves for position near the front and she's another who could be right there if she blasts off the gate. (4) BREEZY can close for a small share vs. these.
Race 3
(2) ST JAMES GATE was used up early last time and only ended up with a small check. He will likely revert to a closing style here and his price will be good; slight nod. (3) BIG RICH drops, and he should be leaving here; using. (4) HEAD TURNING JAG also drops and he is usually right there when he is at this level. Toss him in the Pick 5. (7) BUZZ may blast here and that's when he does his best work. Consider at a price.
Race 4
(8) THINK AGAIN raced very tough in a quagmire to win last week in his first start off the Barrington claim; call to repeat. (2) SINGHAMPTON KENNY races tough every week and he goes back to Moreau here; using. (7) SHOE SHINE comes up tagged here off a vet scratch which could be a negative drop. Proceed with caution. (1) BRICKMAN fell just short to the choice, but he's still stuck on one win this year. I'll still use underneath.
Race 5
(10) THAT'S INCREDIBLE has the speed to clear these and if she can repeat her effort from August 7, she may go coast-to-coast. (9) DANCIN LUCILLE - 1/2-sister to local star Sintra - looks well-prepped for this debut and this isn't the toughest spot. She could pop at first asking. (3) TARRYN A STRIP fits well here, and she should get put into action earlier. I'll use her in multi-race bets. (5) TEQUILA PARTY is another in with a decent shot if she can lay closer this time.
Race 6
(3) DONATO LANE made an uncharacteristic mistake at the start last time and it cost him all chance. He can get back on track here if he behaves. (4) IMF has had many chances, but she is one of few who are sure-gaited in this field, so I'll use her. (7) MISS ADAM T made a threatening late move last time, but she ran out of racetrack. She could be coming around now. (8) MAGICAL GLIDER is good enough to beat these, but she may not be close enough at the head of the lane.
Race 7
(7) SLIP INTO GLIDE couldn't beat the classy P L Jill last time, but he trotted a big mile and a repeat of that effort beats these. (5) MAJESTIC PRESENCE should be a big threat racing at this level using her good tactical speed. (9) JAKE drops and if he gets put into the race at the start, he should contend. (3) A ROD HALL is speedy but quirky and a hard one to rate when putting Pick 4 tickets together.
Race 8
This is a tricky conditioned race with several stakes fillies coming off short breaks and obviously tuning up for future stakes engagements. I'll side with (6) UNDEFIABLE, who holds a recency edge on many of her rivals. (2) POWERFUL CHRIS' only defeat came from the impossible 8-hole in the Battle of the Belles final at Grand River. She is an obvious contender. (5) SPRINGBRIDGE SASSY is obviously fast and talented and she's hard to leave off the late Pick 4. (8) BODICEA faces much tougher, but she's shown grit in her last two starts and there are worse longshots you could land on.
Race 9
(5) ON A SUNNY DAY was in a bad spot for most of the stretch last week, but she still closed with good energy. Coming back quicker maybe she will be more aggressive; top call. (3) CATCH THE DREAM drops and he will get put into the race earlier by Hudon who always presses the issue with this horse when he has a class edge; using. (8) P L JILL has been excellent in her last two and she's not out of this. (7) IL SOGNO DREAM has been very good himself recently and he is another possibility in a race where it makes sense to price shop.
Race 10
(5) LYONS JAVELIN raced great in the slop in her first start for Moreau and there are no Freya Seelsters to deal with here; top call and Pick 4 single. (3) PAZZA HANOVER looks next best and she may even go off chalk, but I'll play to beat her out of the Pick 4 in this spot. (6) WALTZING WITH TINA could improve here on a dry track and with Roy returning to drive; using underneath. (1) RUE HANOVER should be able to sit a good trip and take a share vs. these.
Race 11
(2) PAPPY GO GO was live vs. better last week and he was bet heavily. He merits top call in this field. (5) MARQUIS VOLO is quirky, and he goes in and out of form with no notice, but he fits here, and it makes sense to use him in this Pick 4. (7) TWOFOURROADIE is capable vs. this kind and his price should be good; using. (9) CASH FOR GOLD should be closing for another smaller share starting from out there. (1) ZEUS LIGHTNING is rarely off the ticket and he could better this placing with a decent trip.
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