Woodbine Mohawk Park: Tuesday 8/7 Analysis
Best Bet: SPLURGE BLUE CHIP (8th)
Spot Play: ODDS ON ST LUCIE (1st)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,4/1,2,6/1,2,6/1,3,8/1,2,6 = $32/40
EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,8/1,2,6/4,7/4,7,8 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 9/2,4,6,7/6,7/1,5,8,10 = $32
MEET STATS: 238 - 723 / $1,431.50 BEST BETS: 38 - 65 / $134.80
SPOT PLAYS: 23 - 62 / $142.10
Race 1
(3) ODDS ON ST LUCIE is a Sweet Lou offspring that possesses some obvious zip. This is a great spot to kickoff her career with a win. (4) CINDERELLA DELIGHT had a useful opener and she fired home quickly despite not getting a check. She's the main danger. (5) SALUTATION is another who had a pretty decent debut who could step up here and contend. (6) BETTER IN LOVE had a couple of test drives from Roy when saddled with worst posts. Don't be surprised if she gets put into play here.
Race 2
(2) REBELLIOUS LADY just seems to be faster than these and Young should put her into the race early this time; top call. (6) GALAXY SEELSTER took a shuffle then came back on to pass rivals in the fastest 1/4 of the race. She should be a big threat here. (1) PYRRHA is an obvious player dropping from the Gold division, but she will likely be over bet in this spot. (4) ARIS LADY stayed trotting finally and had a decent qualifier. She could crash the exotics here if she behaves.
Race 3
(6) ROYAL WITCH comes off another sharp effort, but the winner was too tough that night. She gets the nod here. (1) FREE WILLY HANOVER drops back to a level where he will be heard from and he may end up getting the best trip here; using. (2) MAJESTIC PRESENCE is another who will likely look to trip out near the front and she's in with a shot at a price here. (3) CATCH THE DREAM comes to play every week but racing this high he usually needs some luck; small share predicted.
Race 4
(1) OK KUDO has been beaten by the same tough rival twice straight, but he dodges him this time and he gets top call here. (3) MACH WEST comes off a top effort and he has obviously figured it out now. Toss him on multi-race tickets. (8) THREE WEST faces much easier here and he's another I think that must be on multi-race tickets. (6) SILAS SEELSTER is another with improving form that should hit the ticket in this spot, but the others are preferred to win.
Race 5
(2) P L IDAHO has shown brief flashes of brilliance at times, then he goes off form for extended periods. Right now, his form is improving, and this is a good spot for him, so he could explode with a big effort here. (1) THINK AGAIN gets Roy for a second drive in what should be an easier spot; using. (6) CABLE BEACH A drops to the bottom, adds Lasix and returns quicker. A much better effort could be coming here. (8) SUNNY BEACH DAY drops to the bottom, but he's only hit the exacta twice in his last 32 starts; small share predicted.
Race 6
(4) AT WILL looked a winner last time, only to get nailed very late. A better post may be all she needs here. (7) NIFTY TRICK has improving form and she is likely to be the main threat to the choice. (9) BLUE MAGIC showed good early speed vs. the choice and she could be in the thick of it at a price here. (3) ORDER MATTIE tries hard every race and she should get a piece of this.
Race 7
(4) ABUELITA HANOVER closed some ground into the fastest quarter of the race in her debut and she can build off that here; slight nod. (7) PRESCIENT BEAUTY drifted way out while pacing home in 26 1/5 and she got nailed although vs. this group the drift may not matter if she can produce the same speed. (8) UNDEFIABLE has looked good in both starts and she is a logical threat here, plus she will need an immediate good result. (3) DEB is always in the thick of the battle, but a minor share seems likely here.
Race 8
(9) SPLURGE ON ME was likely best last week, but cost by a passive drive. I expect Henry to put her into play much sooner here; top call. (1) SNOOKER comes off a race where she was 2nd to the choice and she figures here. (5) SORORITY SECRET is a homebred that dropped more than six seconds in 20 days; consider for exotics. (6) MISS CONGENIALITY was third to the choice last time and a similar result is likely here.
Race 9
(4) MACHDAVID dug in gamely last time to stay undefeated and a threepeat looms at a short price here. (6) CENTURY FARROH was set down in a race in which he was likely best, and he can provide a challenge to the choice here. (7) MOONSHINE KISSES is improving rapidly and is in with a decent chance. (2) HEISMAN PLAYER should be much better here dropping out of Gold competition; consider for exotics.
Race 10
(6) CHARMBO ORBIT looked like the winner every step of the way last week and when he was shown racetrack around the last turn, he easily put away the leader. He gets the call to repeat. (7) LISVINNIE drops to the level where he is always right there and he's the other one that I'll use in the Pick 4 here. (4) SURF REPORT never misses the board it seems. But a smaller share could be his ceiling here. (8) NOW WHAT HANOVER will be coming late for a share as he often does.
Race 11
(8) FREYA SEELSTER powered home to just miss in here debut and she should be tough here. (5) BETTER TO DREAM gets a notable driver switch following a decent debut effort and she could get the jump on the choice here. (1) SWEET YOUNG THING comes off a solid try vs. Gold rivals and she is the likely chalk here. She's hard to leave off Pick 4 tickets. (10) SAULSBROOK JESSIE is another dropping out of the Golds who merits a look here and her price will be good. (6) WESTBEACH has shown decent late speed in her qualifiers and she could close for a piece of this.
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