Woodbine Mohawk Park: Tuesday 8/27 Analysis

Meet Stats – 224 – 638 / $1,156.50 (-$119.50)
Best Bets – 35 – 61 / $104.90 (-$17.50)
Spot Plays – 19 – 61 / $96.70 (- $23.40)
Best Bet – CAMBRIDGE KATE – (5TH)
Spot Play – HP ROYAL THEO (1ST)
Pick 5 – 1,2,4/4,6,7/4,8/2,4/8 = $7.20
Early Pick 4 – 2,4/8/3,6,9/1,5,7 = $18
Late Pick 4 – 1,5,7/2,7/3,7,9/6,8 = $36
Race 1 – Two Year Olds – GTD $50K Pick 5
(1) HP ROYAL THEO paced a 56 3/5 back 1/2 last time to get close after starting from the worst post. Beginning from the inside gives him a much better chance here. (4) TOCCOA FALLS dropped some time in start #2 and he looks like the main danger; using. (2) WHOLESOME HANOVER’s qualifier on August 13th interests me because of the big move he made in the second 1/4. He has upset potential here. (6) SPUN FROM MAGIC could improve sharply moving from the worst post to one of the best starting slots.
Race 2 – F&M 4YO and Younger, NW1 or $9,200LT
(6) ALLY ELIZABETH and (7) TRIP ACES HANOVER were closest last time in the fastest race any of these were in. I’ll use both in the Pick 5 but give the former a slight nod because she has had far fewer chances to date. (4) CASIMIR SWAMP GIRL has the best recent form, but she’ll need to step it up a bit coming in from a B track. (2) SOMEBEACHBYTHESEA is worth a look on the barn change to Moreau alone.
Race 3 – Two Year Old Fillies
(8) ENCHANTING GAL was McClure’s choice over (4) YEN and the former should be a better price so I’ll give her the nod but use both as my only Pick 5 horses in this leg. The latter is obviously capable having already won a Grassroots race and getting Henry to drive won’t hurt. (9) STORMONT TIMBIT has shown she can finish, and she could sneak onto the Tri at a big price here. (10) NEED AN ALIBI comes off a Grassroots win but from out there I can use only in the 3-4 slots here.
Race 4 – 5YO and Younger NW2 or $25,000LT GTD $50K Pick 4
(2) CAPTAIN NASH has been in against some very tough colts recently and this is a much better spot for him; top call. (4) READY TO RUMBLE N was much better in his second start back as expected and he should be a big threat here despite stepping up to non-winners of two. (7) CASEYS DRAGON will likely be closing belatedly again; using underneath. (9) ATLANTIS is worth a look exiting the top class at Charlottetown and entering the Jamieson barn but from out there I’ll use him on the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 5 – Ontario Sired 3YO Fillies Grassroots Starters in 2019 who are NW $19,000 L5
(8) CAMBRIDGE KATE gets Lasix and she lands in a good spot to notch her first 2019 win; top call. (3) CLUB BELVEDERE is worth a look at a price dropping out of Golds and picking up Macdonald. These are the types he often leaves with and then trips out. (6) ANGELIC SPEED is capable of better than she has been showing lately. Consider at a price. (9) PETRO HALL is another filly adding Lasix that could improve in this spot.
Race 6 – Two Year Old Fillies
(6) P L NIKITA should find this company easier than Golds and she can get back on track in this spot. (9) MAG N ROSES has been outstanding in her past two starts but she will likely need to drop two or three seconds here. She may be capable. (3) LTMEATCAKE HANOVER is worth a look for the Pick 4 on breeding and connections. (7) EMILY ANTOINETTE tries hard every race and she can crack the exotics here.
Race 7 – Two Year Old Fillies NW $7,100 LT – Pick 4
(5) P L NELLY had a promising opener and McClure who had the choice of her or (1) SPORTY JULIANA, chose the former who gets the nod. The latter paced her back 1/2 in 54 3/5 most recently and she should be the main danger. (7) KIT will likely head for the front leaving the gate again and one of these times she will forget to stop. (2) SOUTHWIND BAYOU can work her way onto the Super ticket leaving from an inside post.
Race 8 – NW 5 (F&M 7) or $92,000 (F&M $113,000) LT
(2) UNION FORCES will be very tough here if he can repeat his effort from two starts back where he was an easy winner in the Muscle Hill before taking on the best on the continent. (7) ALL WRAPPED UP almost slay a giant last time and he is very good when he is sound. The concern here is intent going for a $16K purse in between stakes engagements. (4) BLONDE MAGIC and (3) CINDY LYNN exit the same race where they were 1-2 but I prefer to use both underneath as the top two stick out here.
Race 9 – Ontario Sired 3YO Fillies Grassroots Starters in 2019
(9) SPLURGE ON ME continues to roll right along and seems undeterred when drawing outer posts in these starts between stakes engagements so she gets top billing here. (3) REBELLIOUS LADY wasn’t far behind the choice last time and she can get another good trip here; using. (7) HALO ITS ME is capable, but trip is near impossible to predict in these types of races with her. (1) BLUE MAGIC can sit a decent following trip and take a share.
Race 10 – 4YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT
Interesting finale with several possibilities. I’ll side with (8) ROCK N ZEUS who makes his first start for O Sullivan. Macdonald is one of the best at revving one up early from an outer post. (6) APEX SEELSTER’s qualifier also signals readiness and he’s on my Pick 4 ticket. (5) SIDE HILL GOUGER looked good at the end of his debut mile and he is a price possibility here. (1) MARCUS SEELSTER should trip well and take another share vs. these. (10) ASSASSINS CREED had a nice debut mile and he will be a huge price from out there, but he may come late and sneak into the exotics.