Woodbine Mohawk Park: Tuesday 8/11 Analysis

Meet Stats: 141-481/ $744.00 (-$218.00)
Best Bets: 24-44/ $75.90 (-$12.10)
Spot Plays: 10-45 / $71.20 (-$18.80)
Best Bet: TOKYO SEELSTER (6TH)
Spot Play: ODDS ON VERO BEACH (5TH)
Early Pick 5: 1,3,6/2,3,5/3.8/6,7/1,2,5,6 = $28.80
Late Pick 5: 4/6,7,9/2,3,9/3,4,6/2,3,10 = $16.20
Early Pick 4: 6,7/1,2,5,6/4/6,7,9 = $24
Late Pick 4: 2,3,9/3,4,6/2,3,10/1,5 = $54

Race 1: 2 Year Olds *GTD $75,000 Pick 5*

(1) FASHION FRENZIE dominated here last week and assuming he behaves, he should remain unbeaten. (6) ROOKIE SEASON and (3) MYSTIC finished together, well back of budding star Macho Martini, and one of them will likely take this if the choice falters. (10) FOUR WHEELIN made a nice middle move last time and he can take a share here.

Race 2: ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES, GRASSROOTS STARTERS IN 2020

This race likely comes down to (2) FREE FLYIN TICKET and (5) PREEMINENCE, who are starting to separate themselves in this division. Both were equally impressive at Grand River and it makes sense to price shop here when choosing between this duo. (3) HIT BY A BUS always leaves and she could get first run on both choices, so she's not out of this. (1) SMILING DIALING will be closing again, likely to round out the Tri or Super.

Race 3: 4YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 (F&M $25,000)

(8) STRAVINSKY made a big wide move on the last turn after breaking stride, but the early deficit was too much to overcome. He should be tough here if he stays flat. (3) HEAVENSDOOR HANOVER was aggressive in that same race and if he gets a slightly better trip here, he will be dangerous. (6) ANGEL NATION shows a 1:56 3/5 win here in early July and he should appreciate returning to the big track. (2) HEAT WAVE HANOVER inherited a win last week when the loose leader tired badly late. I see him taking a small slice here.

Race 4: WHENUWISHUPONASTAR - FINAL 4 - 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES - Pick 4

(7) NOTORIOUS PINK has been lights-out since shipping in from Pennsylvania and she's hard to go past here, but her price will be short again. (6) ADASHIOUS HANOVER switches to a hot barn and she qualified well for this over a track rated one second slow; upset chance. (4) LILLYSILK was a good 2nd to the choice last time and it is hard to imagine her not being part of the Tri here. (5) LADY MIDNIGHT raced well from the second tier to finish 4th to the choice last week. She should improve here leaving from the middle of the gate and I'll take her to round out this Super.

Race 5: ONT. SIRED 3YO FILLIES, GRASSROOT STARTERS 5 IN 2020. NW $6,000 IN OSS 1 MILE EARNINGS IN 2020.

(6) ODDS ON VERO BEACH was used hard early racing in a driving rainstorm at Grand River and once the winner blew by her, she offered little resistance. She is capable of much better and perhaps prefers the bigger track; top call. (1) COQUI COQUI is getting hot now and she is likely the one to beat here; using. (5) MOUTH WATERING comes off a good effort and she gets Henry back. She is another live multi-race option. (2) COCO BEACH DE VIE should get a much easier trip here and she could upset if everything falls right for her.

Race 6: 2 YEAR OLDS - PICK 5

(4) TOKYO SEELSTER looks to stay unbeaten here and this is probably a field that he will dominate at a short price. (3) MASTER GRAND trotted a big mile vs. Macho Martini after breaking and if there is a danger, he is the one. (9) FOX VALLEY LIZA might be rated higher from a better post. I see her taking back and coming on late for a share this time. (8) GROOMS HALO was no match for the top choice in Race 1, but that was a decent effort and he could land in this Super at a big price.

Race 7: 4YO and YOUNGER NW1 OR $7,000 LT

(9) NIMBUS DEO, a $140,000 Lexington Sale buy, debuts as a 4-year-old here in a spot where she could pop right away if she has some ability. (7) PERPETUATE was flying late last week. He will be the one to beat if he lays a bit closer to the front early; using. (6) REGAL SEVEN is another who will have a good shot if he can work out a slightly better trip in this spot. (3) D PROCRASTINATOR takes his 14th crack at breaking his maiden here. I prefer to use him underneath.

Race 8: F&M NW $3,000 L5 or $8,000 L10 - Pick 4

(9) JUST HER LUCK could be expected to get put into play early here with the drop to the bottom to face eight mares who are a combined 4-for-90 in 2020; top call. (2) TAKEYOURBREATHAWAY was flying late here on Friday night to just miss in this class, but everything fell perfectly for her to get a seam at the right time in mid-stretch. She obviously fits well here, but I won't take a short price on a mare who needs a trip. (3) DONTBRUISECARRIE last drew a good post on June 23rd and she hasn't been used much since. She should improve sharply here, but she is also 1 for her last 52; your call. (4) BIDFORA HUG had an impossible trip last week. She should be in the hunt here.

Race 9: NW 7 (F&M8) or $120,000 LT (F&M $150,000)

(4) STEUBEN HANOVER raced tough last time in a field where he had to deal with class droppers and I'm going to take a swing with him to knock off expected big chalk (6) H P ROYAL THEO, who has been off for three weeks and obviously has his sights set on upcoming stakes action. (3) LEFKADA responded immediately to a driver change and she gets Henry now; using underneath. (1) TRIX AND STONES has been racing well and she can close for another small share in this spot.

Race 10: 3YO FILLIES NW1 or $9,400 LT AE: NW $1,000 in 2020

(3) UPTOWN CALLIE had little chance racing in a rainstorm after starting from the worst post at Grand River. Her race two back here stamps her as the one to beat. (10) ROSE RUN VIGILANT also rates highly, but she will need to find a better trip than she got last time. (2) SAULSBROOK FLASHY is interesting picking up Roy to drive, but she's missed a month; demand a price. (4) ZEPHYR SEELSTER shows improving form and she should be along late to grab a share.

Race 11: NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10

(5) SEVEN IRON didn't have much of a chance last week the way the race played out, but missing a check allows him to drop to the bottom here and an aggressive Drury drive is likely coming; top call. (1) MARQUIS VOLO makes his fourth start at this level, but he draws much better here, and he could get the trip he needs to upset these. (4) MAGICAL WINNER K is better when he starts with his nose on the gate and I'll sue him in this late Pick 4. (7) GREAT MAGIC can get position early here and ride it to another share. (8) ROYAL ESTEEM faces easier and she could better this placing if she gets a good trip.