Woodbine Mohawk Park: Tuesday 7/31 Analysis
Best Bet: THINK ON IT (1st)
Spot Play: CROSS MY MIND (10th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 6/2,3,6,7,8/1,5,7/2,3,9/1,2,3,7 = $36
EARLY PICK 4: 2,3,9/1,2,3,7/1,2,4,8/2 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 3,5/2,7,8/1,7/3,4,7 = $36
MEET STATS: 231 - 682 / $1,388.70 BEST BETS: 36 - 62 / $128.20
SPOT PLAYS: 22 - 59 / $138.00
Race 1
(6) THINK ON IT has been good in back-to-back starts and it appears as though he'll be able to clear quickly this time which would make him tough to beat in this spot. (4) CHARMBO ORBIT is another who is in good form who was nailed right on the line last time. He should be a factor again. . (7) NOW WHAT HANOVER flew late for Macdonald to get up in time, but fractions and trip could play against him here. (5) JIMMY BE GOOD was claimed out of his last race where he set a quick pace then faded. He seems like the type that regresses quickly, so I'll only use him underneath here.
Race 2
(6) FINAL CHEQUE got a clean line and finished with trot last time. I expect a more aggressive steer in Grassroots action here. (7) CAREY ON broke early vs. Gold colts now drops. He should be a threat if he doesn't break. (2) NEVER TELL raced well at Georgian and is one of few with some form here; using. (8) H A HOUSTON is another who has a good race that is worthy of consideration in a race where seemingly anything goes.
Race 3
(7) CAPTAIN MCKEE lands in a good spot for his debut and his dam was good early in her career; top call. (1) CENTURY FARROH was nailed very late in a good effort last time and he rates highly here. (5) BETTER UP may get overbet dropping out of an OSS Gold race, but he does qualify as one of the contenders. (6) BUELLER can close late for a piece; use underneath.
Race 4
(2) ARABELLAS CADET excelled at Georgian now she picks up a catch driver here which should make her tough vs. these. (3) STENHOUSE HANOVER has a race two starts back that puts him right there if he can stay trotting here. (9) SMOKEE MIRRORS is another who has gait issues that rates highly if he stays flat, but it's anyone's guess if that will happen here. (4) MAGICAL LADY is a good earner and one that should be used underneath in Tri and Super bets.
Race 5
(2) BEAUTYONTHEBEACH was no match for the best rookie filly pacer we've seen here so far, but that was a very good effort from the 10-hole and she gets the nod here. (3) ABUELITA HANOVER - a $90KHarrisburg purchase - is a 1/2-sister to 1:51 pacer Lyons Again and goes for top connections She would be no surprise here. (7) TALL DRINK HANOVER did okay in a quick mile last time in New Jersey and she can factor here. (1) CAROUSEL should sit another good trip here and come late for a share.
Race 6
(4) OKEANOS took a ton of money at the windows when starting from an outside post with a driver who rarely gets bet from out there but he blew up at the start. Price goes up now and I'll climb aboard. (2) ROYALE ELITE is one-for-one for connections that do well in this division every year. He should be a big threat here. (1) ROYAL ROB finished fast in his lone qualifier and he will likely take plenty of action here. I'll use him in the early Pick 4. (8) LARIAT SEELSTER got a check vs. Gold company and his driver won a race last week with a trotter who was making his second start that went off at 73/1. He's not impossible here.
Race 7
(2) ROYAL WITCH won as easily as a horse can last week and this class rise may not matter if she holds her form. (1) R FIRST CLASS can threaten here if he leaves a bit better than he has been lately. (8) ON A SUNNY DAY was unlucky last time because as she was passing horses via the overland route, the winner was slipping up the inside. She is another that is in sharp form who can take this with a trip. (5) LEAN HANOVER steps up off a workmanlike win but I expect he'll finish on the edges here.
Race 8
(5) PRESCIENT BEAUTY - Sportswriter's 1/2-sister - probably still hasn't shown anything close to her best race yet, so I'll stick with her in this tougher spot. (3) KEY WEST ships in off an impressive mile and looks like the one to beat here. (2) DEB didn't fare as well cutting the mile so she will likely change tactics here. She can make the ticket. (4) TARRYN A STRIP is worth a look being by a first-crop sire who has had some early success.
Race 9
(8) SCARLETT RAIDER added trotting hopples for his July 24th qualifier and turned it around. He gets my nod in a wide-open race. (2) SOUTHWIND FROST broke while leading Gold company and if he stays flat and can produce anything close to his June 30th qualifier should make him tough here. (7) RAP ROYALTY deserves some respect being the only winner in the field; using. (10) JUDGE KEN gets bet every week now moving outside he may end up an overlay in a field with no standout.
Race 10
(7) CROSS MY MIND should be able to blast to the front off the gate here and if he does, he can resume his winning ways. (1) SCOUTS REPORT is the other leaver in the field who may sit a great trip behind the choice; using. (2) INTRIGUED AGAIN has been impressive for breeder/owner/trainer/driver Kerwood and he's hard to leave off exotic bets with the talent he's shown so far. (4) THUNDER SOME WHERE can leave in the top flight and stick around for a slice.
Race 11
(7) CARBON CAPTURE finished with good energy in her debut and she looks as good as any here; slight nod. (4) PRINCESS LAYLA was much better in her second qualifier and she gets Brett Miller here; using. (3) CINDERELLA DELIGHT - a $35K Harrisburg purchase - is by a top sire and goes for a stable that sends them ready. Toss her onto late Pick 4 tickets. (2) BETTER TO DREAM qualified well enough to suggest she can grab a piece of this. (1) FLASH A SMILE can go better here in her second start; use underneath.
[DRF HARNESS NEWSLETTER: Sign Up for the FREE DRF Harness Newsletter. Fresh content and insights delivered each Thursday.]