Woodbine Mohawk Park: Tuesday 7/3 Analysis
Best Bet: EMOTICON HANOVER (2nd)
Spot Play: MAJESTIC FIRE (6th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,2,4/1/5,6,7/3,5,6,7/3,6,8 = $21.60
EARLY PICK 4: 3,5,6,7/3,6,8/2,4/4,8 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 4,8/1,2,3,6/1,6/2,5,8 = $48
MEET STATS: 178 - 518 / $1,102.20 BEST BETS: 29 - 47 / $103.80
SPOT PLAYS: 17 - 44 / $101.80
Race 1
(4) THEWAYULOOKTONIGHT drops to the bottom and adds Lasix. She should be tough here. (2) BAD NIGHT MARE made a big recovery to almost win last week, nailed only late by the winner. She moves into the conditioned ranks, but she figures. (1) HP PANDORA paced a big third 1/4 last week then faltered late. One of these weeks she will trip out and beat them all. (3) TWICE AN ANGEL returns from the states and gets Cullen. She's interesting but notice the weak win record.
Race 2
(1) EMOTICON HANOVER flew home vs. males and she draws well here. She should control this race. (5) DREAM TOGETHER was behind her stablemate last time and she skipped a week. I'll use her underneath. (6) CAPRICE HILL was just behind the choice last time as she continues to struggle to find the winner's circle; smaller share predicted. (3) ROYAL WITCH can close late to take a slice here.
Race 3
(7) SLIP INTO GLIDE has found his best form and he stays in the same class where he can maximize his earning power. A threepeat looms here. (6) MARQUIS VOLO was beaten twice straight by the choice, but if there is more action here and some lead changes, he has a shot. (5) TALBOTCREEK SUZIE was shuffled back after making the front early in a race that had a few leader changes. She can be right there with a bit different trip here. (8) MONEY MISSION was solid vs. the choice when claimed, but it's hard to know what to expect from the new barn.
Race 4
(6) MIGHTY NICKY goes first off the claim for a barn that hits more than 4 out of 10 winners with fresh claims; top call. (3) UP THE ALLEY closed well despite missing a month between starts and he could offer some Pick 4 and Pick 5 value here. (7) GO PAPPY GO faltered in the slop, but his race two back would make him very tough vs. these; using. (5) MYSTICAL MISSION is worth including in multi-race wagers here with J Mac getting the call for the first time.
Race 5
(8) STAG PARTY is by a top sire and goes for a barn that unveiled a sharp two-year-old winner Thursday night. This one too looks ready to produce at first asking. (3) LUZIANA had no chance to catch a leader that stole easy fractions, but he was game in defeat and he rates highly here. (6) SPORTS HERO brought $60K at the Lexington sale and he has license to be a good one being a 1/2-brother to both Mach It Big and Mach A Wish. Toss him on multi-race tickets. (2) ARCANE HANOVER had an impossible trip in his debut, but he stayed game. He could better this placing with a decent trip.
Race 6
(2) MAJESTIC FIRE trotted a 55 4/5 back 1/2 in OSS Gold company and could still get nowhere close at the wire. These are easier, and he rates highly. (4) CASCDA is on a good roll and will likely be the colt to catch in the lane. I'll stand with just these two in the Pick 4. (7) CANALE HANOVER has improving form and he can take another slice here. (9) SMOKE AND MIRRORS often gets bet but has yet to produce this year. She may sneak onto the ticket here.
Race 7
(4) THE REGULATOR - a $40K London Select sale buy - looks too fast for these off his June 25th qualifier and he gets the nod. (8) BETTER EARL, who brought $37K at Lexington, has done nothing wrong getting ready for this debut and he looks like the main threat. (10) SUNSHINES FINEST was absolutely flying at the end of his debut mile, but he gets stuck in the worst post here and a similar trip and result may be in store. (2) PRESTIGE SEELSTER has some appeal for the bottom of the exotics.
Race 8
(6) KAMERAN HANOVER was closing well at the wire last time to put himself in the photo. Starting from a good post here, I expect him to get involved earlier; slight nod. (1) FREE WILLY HANOVER continues to race tough and he was nailed in the very last stride last week; using. (2) HEAD TURNING JAG is another that is very sharp at the moment that merits late Pick 4 consideration. (3) BUZZ steps up off a new life's mark and it's hard to toss anything this barn sends out right now.
Race 9
(6) DEEPFAVE HANOVER goes to the barn with the highest strike rate off the claim here and he has been racing well; top call. (1) WEB CAM is one we hit last week at generous odds on the barn change and he should be contentious again here. (7) UDRAFTED made an early three-wide move to the lead then faltered late. He drops back in for a tag here, but this is no easy spot. (5) NOW WHAT HANOVER will likely be closing late for a piece again.
Race 10
This is a tough race that I looked at for a long time before I came up with (2) ADVERSITY on top. He has been facing mostly better and he should be able to beat a few of these off the gate. (8) ETRUSCAN HANOVER is schizophrenic in that the good version is a Preferred trotter and the not-so-good version just wants to run, which has happened frequently this year. I'll use him in the late Pick 4 but would demand a price for a win bet. (5) DOTTIE has been getting closer recently and she could pop at a price in a race like this. (9) STAR PHOTO can get a spot in the top five early and stick for a share. (4) DEWEYKEEPUMNWHY can trip out and take a smaller share here.
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