Woodbine Mohawk Park: Tuesday 7/17 Analysis
Best Bet: BIG RICH (9th)
Spot Play: DANCIN LOU (8th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,5,7/1,2,6,8/4/1,5,8/4,5 = $14.40
EARLY PICK 4: 1,5,8/4,5/5,6,7/2,6,7 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 2,6,7/1,2,5,8/8/1,2,5,8 = $48
MEET STATS: 210 - 603 / $1,273.50 BEST BETS: 31 - 55 / $109.00
SPOT PLAYS: 21 - 52 / $131.00
Race 1
(1) TOMY TERROR goes back to the Shepherd barn here where he is 3 for 3 so far this summer, including a life's-best mark of 1:50 3/5 two starts back; top call. (5) JIMMY BE GOOD was excellent off the shelf and now goes for a new barn. If this race falls apart late, he will likely be picking them up. (7) SURF REPORT was the beneficiary in a slowing back 1/2 last time, but he can close for a share here, too. (8) LISVINNIE is just an honest racehorse who comes to play every time; use underneath here.
Race 2
(6) SMART AS HILL - a $70K Lexington purchase - is by a top sire and is the first foal of a dam that piled up earnings and 2 and 3 as a racehorse. This one looks ready. (8) CONFESSION SESSION - bought for $62K at Lexington - is by a first-crop sire already making his mark and out of an unraced dam who is a 1/2-sister to 14-time winner Pizza Dolce. This is a good spot for her debut. (2) SETTE DEO is a $42K Lexington purchase who finished well in both qualifiers and she's another possibility here. (1) SPEEDY DUNCAN ($42K Harrisburg) has one solid qualifier under his belt and he is yet another who figures here in what should be a contentious race.
Race 3
(4) DANCER HALL draws much better here, and a more aggressive try is almost a certainty. He should resume his winning ways here. (3) DREAM TOGETHER is capable if she is in range turning for home; exacta factor. (1) FREE WILLY HANOVER has been racing well for several weeks and he should get a spot near the front off the gate here then stick around for a slice. (5) BUZZ is in great form, but a smaller share is likely vs. this tough group.
Race 4
(5) TORRIN HANOVER gets Waples back here, so maybe he'll get the aggressive steer I was expecting last week; one more chance. (1) FOOT SOLDIER took all the late money for his debut and he delivered, although the stopping late pace certainly helped. I'll use him in the multi-race bets. (8) MYSTERY PHIL was a solid 2nd to the choice and he can share here again. (3) SPORTS BAND had a rough trip and set too fast a pace as a result. He's not impossible here and he should be a good price.
Race 5
(4) MIGHTY NICKY drops yet again after missing a check last week. I have a feeling Roy will have him on top by the time they hit the stretch; top call. (5) ST JAMES GATE also drops to the bottom here and it wouldn't be a shock if he woke up with a much better try. (2) DOTTIE was sharp in defeat last time, being passed late by a class-dropper, but she faces a similar scenario here and will probably take only a small share. (1) WINNING LYRIC is capable of closing for a piece vs. these and I like the way he passed several horses in the third 1/4 of his qualifier.
Race 6
(5) WEB CAM was a sharp winner last time he raced in this class; expect a top try here. (7) REIKI goes into the potent Shepherd barn and he must be feared on that angle alone. (6) CHARMBO ORBIT should also be respected on the class drop here; using. (4) BRICKMAN is a good one to use on the bottom of Tri and Super bets.
Race 7
(7) TWOFOURROADIE drops and moves inside a couple of slots, which should enable him to beat a couple of these off the gate. He should be flying late at a square price here. (6) ON A SUNNY DAY took a big win as expected when she dropped to face easier, but she fits here as well and may be the one to beat. (2) SLIP INTO GLIDE continues to race well and the final 1/4 trotted by the winner was just too fast last time. He'll be coming late here. (5) CABERTOSS again figures to finish on the edges and he may round out the Tri or Super.
Race 8
(8) DANCIN LOU - A $140k Lexington purchase - is a 1/2-brother to $1.75 million earner Dancin Yankee (1:47 2/5 S.). His late speed in his qualifiers indicates readiness; top call. (2) TYGA HANOVER ($110K Harrisburg) is a 1/2-brother to Traceur Hanover, who won the Breeders Crown at two; using. (5) CAPTAIN NASH brought only $19K at Lexington, but his lone qualifier was excellent. He may turn out to be a bargain. (1) DO YA THINK is the lone winner in the field and while I suspect he beat easier that day, he's hard to toss here.
Race 9
(8) BIG RICH drops and he should pop at this reduced level. (1) MAJESTIC PRESENCE has an upset chance if she can land in the choice's pocket at the start. (6) WHISKEY TAX has improving form but is still winless this year. I'll use him underneath. (4) GO PAPPY GO was solid last time, closing well down the lane, but the winner was long gone. He could better this placing with a decent trip.
Race 10
(5) BUTTERMILK HANOVER lands in a likely spot here and she draws a good post from which to work; top call. (2) QUEENOFTHEJUNGLE continues to race well and she has been known to pop in situations where it looks unlikely on paper. I'll use her in this late Pick 4. (8) HOT SPOT HANOVER was decent last time, now she drops again. She's certainly not out of this. (1) SHEWEARSTHEPANTS is another class-dropper that figures for a piece, but to this point, she simply isn't as good as she was at three when she was raced hard for several weeks. Let's see how she does here. (3) TRAFFIC JAM is worth a look for the exotics with the move inside.
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