Woodbine Mohawk Park: Tuesday 10/1 Analysis

Meet Stats – 306 – 868 / $1,540.40 (-$143.60)
Best Bets – 51 - 84 / $149.80 (-$18.20)
Spot Plays – 26– 84 / $121.50 (- $46.50)
Best Bet – LYONS PEGASUS – (10TH)
Spot Play – MYSTIC SHADOW – (4TH)
Pick 5 – 3,7/6/1,4,5/1,6,10/2,4,9 = $10.80
Early Pick 4 – 1,6,10/2,4,9/6,9/1,4 = $36
Late Pick 4 – 1,4/4,6,7/4,6,7/2 = $18
Race 1 – CLM HDCP $18,000 to $25,000 - **$50K GTD Pick 5**
Interesting race to kick off the Pick 5 which could turn into a real speed show with several of these likely to be claimed again. I’ll side with (7) RACEMUP who should clear by the 1/4 and can lead the way home from there. (3) ALLSTAR SEELSTER comes off a fast win where he was claimed, and he should be right with the choice the whole way; using. (1) OCEANVIEW MAGNUM should be closing for a share again. (6) ROCKIN WIZARD looks next best and he too should be passing some of these late.
Race 2 – NW7 (F&M8) or $120,000 (F&M $150,000) LT
When (6) HEY LIVVY is good (and behaving) she can be exceptional and if she stays flat again, she will be very hard to beat here. (1) STORMONT VENTNOR was a decent third to the choice last time. He is the most likely to benefit if that rival blows up. (3) HIGHLAND TOP HILL was 2nd to the choice but she is still winless this year and I prefer to use her underneath. (4) SUPERLATIVE should be passing some of these in the back 1/2; use on the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 3 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 2YO Colts and Geldings
(4) HORSE TRADER made an uncharacteristic miscue last week and then came on well to be 4th. He’ll be tough here if he stays flat. (1) BLUE CUPERTINO also broke and lost all hope but that was a rare mistake and he should rebound here. (8) MAJOR BAY was put into play early by Roy and led all the way at a big price. A repeat isn’t out of the question here. (5) YOUR STILL UP can’t be tossed and is another in with a good shot in a contentious field.
Race 4 – 2 & 3YO Fillies NW1 or $7,000 LT - **$50K GTD Pick 4**
(6) MYSTIC SHADOW was beaten by a filly twice that came back to win her third straight the other night. She should be tough in this field. (1) SHEBESAILIN is too well-bred not to be better than she has shown. I’ll give her a price look here. (10) PERFECT STORM was a good 2nd to a big chalk in her debut and she an contend here if she gets put into the race early. (9) LADY NATASHA is a good one to use in the 3-4 slots.
Race 5 – NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10
(2) ODD BALL qualified well enough to signal he is ready, and this is a good spot for him to make his return; top call. (9) ENCHANTED MISSION won the last pari-mutuel race that the choice was in and he faces easier here; using. (4) MAGIC NIGHT also drops, and he is worth a look in a race where there is little solid recent form. (3) CAULFIELD is improving but he rarely wins. I’ll use him underneath only.
Race 6 – NW $10,000 L5 or $20,000L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000
(6) UNDERCOVER STRIKE gets a big driver switch back to Roy – who drove him to a season’s-best score two starts back – and he should be tough here. (9) ST JAMES GATE was decent in his return race and now he gets to drop. I wouldn’t be shocked if Christoforou blasts with him here. (5) BUZZ moves back up in class following a predictable win vs. weaker. I prefer to use him underneath this time. (2) WHAT A RUSH will be closing ground late again. He should hit the ticker again.
Race 7 – CLM HDCP $8,000 TO $10,000
(4) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER raced well here two starts back when second to a horse that came back to repeat in very fast time. He gets the nod here. (1) FAMILY SPORTS has been facing tougher and if he is going to wake up, this is the spot where you’ll see it. (5) BS TYRRIFIC gets Henry here and he’s worth a look for the exotics starting from a good post. (3) THINK AGAIN should leave hard for position and it’s hard to imagine he won’t be in the Super at the wire.
Race 8 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 2YO Colts and Geldings
(7) HP ROYAL THEO blew up at odds of 1 to 5 last time after winning a Grand Circuit race in his previous start. He should be the boss here if he behaves. (6) THREEFIFTYTWO shows wins and breaks in his past five starts and he is getting hot at the right time. He is the main danger. (4) PORT PERRY is sure-gaited which could end up being a big advantage in this field. I’ll use him in this Pick 4. (1) BABIDIBOU hasn’t missed the board to this point and he could sit a nice trip and sneak onto the Tri despite facing tougher here.
Race 9 – NW $15,000 l5 OR $29,000 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $40,000
This looks like a good spot for (6) O NARUTAC PERFETTO who should be helped by the short field; slight nod. (7) HEMI SEELSTER’s strategy is never a secret. He is the one to catch again. (4) R FIRST CLASS is good enough to compete with these, but his break in stride in his most recent start is concerning considering his previous gait issues; your call. (2) FREE WILLY HANOVER is always in the mix it seems. I’ll sue him on the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 10 – 4YO and Younger NW2 or $25,000
(2) LYONS PEGASUS was lights-out last week and anything close to a repeat makes him very tough to beat here. (5) MACHDAVID made a couple of moves in that race then couldn’t go with the choice late. A better trip makes him a player here. (3) BETTER UP is another who is capable of better if he can work out a better trip; consider for the exotics. (7) MACHPAPERSCISSORS was third to the choice last time and he figures to be part of the Super again here. (1) ROUSSEAU can improve in his second start back; consider for Supers and High 5s.