Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 9/5 Analysis

Meet Stats – 241 – 689 / $1,259.10 (-$126.30)
Best Bets – 40 – 67 / $118.50 (-$17.90)
Spot Plays – 21 – 67 / $105.80 (- $24.30)
Best Bet – JULA CHAMPAGNE (1ST)
Spot Play – NIGHT WATCHMAN – (4TH)
Pick 5 – 9/3,5,6/4/8/6,7,8,10 = $2.40
Early Pick 4 – 8/6,7,8,10/3,4/5,6,10 = $24
Late Pick 4 – 5,6,10/6/2,4,6,7/3,9
Race 1 - 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE OR $7,000 LT - **GTD $50K Pick 5**
(9) JULA CHAMPAGNE has faced a steady diet of stakes company and now she gets to tackle maidens. She should take beating in this spot. (6) GALAXY SEELSTER closed well last time to be 2nd to a big chalk and she is an Exactor factor here. (1) ALPINA improved last time racing in a Grassroots race and she can take a good share here with an alert start. (5) PEARLS GIRL is worth a look for the exotics bringing some good form in from the B tracks.
Race 2 – CLM HDP $12,000 to $15,000
(5) TOMY TERROR goes for Moreau/Roy here racing off the fresh claim and he should be tough in this spot. (6) STELIOS always puts himself in position to compete for the win every week. He’s hard to leave off Pick 5 tickets. (3) CHEAPSKATE HANOVER is worth a look for the Tri picking up McClure here and coming off a good try in his first start after being claimed. (4) MATTS TUITION broke through vs. a weak group last time. Look for him to close belatedly for a slice here.
Race 3 – PEACEFUL WAY - ELIMINATION - 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES
(4) WHOSE BLUES was a victim of racing luck last week when she was forced to make several moves before the 3/4 pole and then provided perfect cover for the winner. She should bounce back here. (3) SHE ROCKS KEMP has maintained her solid form and she could be the one that the choice must hold off late. (6) DIP ME HANOVER has a good late kick and she will be coming late too. (1) SHE MUST BE MAGIC took a shot at 103 to 1 last time and ended up softening up the choice. She can share here if she gets a less ambitious drive.
Race 4 – 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE OR $7,000 LT- **GTD $50K Pick 4**
(8) NIGHT WATCHMAN showed courage to hold onto third last Saturday when chasing what could be the best rookie colt pacer on the continent. This is a big class plunge and he has a big shot vs. these. (4) ASSASSINS CREED has some obvious ability and he can add some value to the exotics here going for a driver that doesn’t get bet much when racing at this track. (5) APEX SEELSTER went a big trip in defeat last time and he is an obvious factor here. (6) P L MUNSON can threaten for a least a share if he stays flat here.
Race 5 – 2 YEAR OLDS, NW $7,000 LT
(10) PRESS TIME exits some tough races. If Harris rolls him off the gate here and he clears, he could go all the way on the engine. (6) ROCKNROLLS SHADOW has one of the best recent races and he fits well here; using. (7) MISSION BAY is another who fits better here, and McClure may put him in good position early. He’s another in with a decent chance. (8) GRANDPE KNOWS BEST gets a notable driver change here shipping in and I’ll use him as a multi-race price option.
Race 6 – PEACEFUL WAY - ELIMINATION - 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES
(4) SPOILED PRINCESS was tripped-out perfectly by driver Dunn to win last time, but she easily put away the big chalk and she should be tough right back. (3) HELLO TOMORROW has regularly faced the toughest fillies in North America, and she should enjoy some class relief here. (2) PANEM was solid breaking her maiden in a Grand Circuit race and if her gait issues are behind her, she could be ready to trot even faster. (1) SPIRIT OF DEO surprised with a big trip last time and she could crash the exotics at a big price again.
Race 7 – ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES, GRASSROOTS STARTERS IN 2019 – Pick 4
(6) REBELLIOUS LADY has been consistent and sure-gaited to this point and she gets top call here. (10) ABSYNTHE HANOVER was over her head in the Casual Breeze, but she fits here and should contend if she gets put into the race. (5) THRU THE WICKETS is an interesting price option coming off a break because she fits and can threaten if she behaves. (4) MATTYS SMILIN is a good one to use in the 2-3-4 slots of the exotics here.
Race 8 – 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 (FM 4) RACES OR $20,000 (FM $25,000) LT
(6) ROYAL ESTEEM was in tough facing win machine Only Take Cash. She looks best here. (7) MEAAS DREAM got a confidence-building win vs. lesser and she’s worth a look for the Exactor here. (1) PRICELESS RULER should be a speed threat and he can stick around for a share. (2) WARAWEE ULTRA is one that should sit a decent trip and she can crack the Super.
Race 9 – NW $3,000 L5 OR NW $9,500 L10
In a race with no standouts, I’ll take a shot with (4) CROSS MY MIND racing off the Puddy claim. (2) SAGEBRUSH SID comes off a super qualifier taken over a track rated one second slow and if Auciello has him figured out, he may be tough to beat here. (6) DREAMY FELLA drops, and he should be heard from in this spot. I’ll use him in this Pick 4. (7) COOL ROCK can close late to take a share here.
Race 10 – ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLDS, GRASSROOTS STARTERS IN 2019
(3) SOUTHWIND FROST is sharp as a tack right now and he draws well. I’ll give him the nod over (9) ROYALE ELITE, who is turning into a win machine and demands respect despite his post. (6) ENCARNACION ran out of racetrack last week when closing well at the end. He should get a piece of this. (7) ESA and (8) P L MATT are two closers to consider for the Super and High 5.