Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 9/27 Analysis
Best Bet: ALONA (6th)
Spot Play: SPORTS LEGEND (10th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,4,5/3,4,6,7/4,7/3,8,9/2,8 = $28.80
EARLY PICK 4: 3,8,9/2,8/2,6,10/1,3,4 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 1,3,4/1,3,4/7,8/1,3 = $36
MEET STATS: 362 - 1113 / $2,071.30 BEST BETS: 59 - 99 / $203.00
SPOT PLAYS: 33 - 97 / $185.90
Race 1
(2) PENNANT SEELSTER has to get a better trip here if he can stay flat; slight nod. (4) JOHNNYS REVENGE goes to Moreau for this start and I'll use him in this suspect field. (5) JOHNNY BRAVO fits well here, and he could get the job done with the right trip. (1) JULA GRAND CRU has some races that would put him right there with this group if he fires his best shot.
Race 2
(3) ESA ships in and driver McNair qualified him twice. He could pop here first time racing out of the new barn and in much easier company than he last faced. (7) MAGICAL JOURNEY faced a steady diet of stakes foes. He should improve here. (6) ROSE RUN UNCLEBUCK was second to a very good colt last time. He is right in the mix with these. (4) BLAZING TRAIL is another who can improve dropping out of stakes company for this.
Race 3
(4) WESTBEACH is on a roll and she holds post and tactical edges on her main rival (7) GIGGLE HANOVER. Edge to the former, but I'll use both in the Pick 5. (1) TOPSILL BEACH raced better with McClure in the bike and he takes the return drive; consider for exotics. (6) PAZZA HANOVER can leave fast for position then stick around for a share.
Race 4
(3) UNPRECEDENTED paced an unbelievable trip first up living forever on the outside last week. A slightly better journey gets him a win here. (8) FOOT SOLDIER rode the choice's cover to victory, but that was still an improved effort and he figures here right back. (9) MACS POWER also comes off a very good effort and he merits multi-race inclusion despite his post. (6) AMERICAN MUSIC should be closing for a share.
Race 5
(8) RUN DIRECTOR was 2nd in Grand Circuit company two back and you have to think that he'll get a more aggressive steer vs. Gold foes here. (2) STORMONT VENTNOR has never been better, and he should be the choice's main danger. (5) JOEY BATS will likely find the top ones too tough, but he should share. (1) HENDERSON SEELSTER is another who can follow along and stay for a share.
Race 6
(6) ALONA was motoring late last time, now she gets a catch driver; top call. (10) HEY LIVVY has had some frequent gait issues, but her September 16th qualifier was so good that I'll use her here. (2) FLY FLY SELENA ships home and drops Lasix. She's capable on her best effort. (5) MISS ADAM T frequently finishes on the edges and that is the likely result for her in this spot.
Race 7
(3) MAGICAL GLIDER hasn't done much starting from outer posts recently. Perhaps the move inside will wake her up. (1) SNEEKER HANOVER drops back down to a level where she has already had some success; using. (4) SETNTHEWORLDONFIRE is worth a look picking up McClure here. (9) CHEATALOTPOV should be closing late for a share but he could get too far back starting from out there to threaten for the win.
Race 8
(4) WINDSONG OLYMPIA was used up early last time and she faded late. This looks like an easier spot and she could rebound here. (3) KAOTIC also lands in a softer field here and she should be heard from. (1) BAD VENDETTA is worth a look on record alone, being a four-time winner already. (7) HEY SWEETIE has had 21chances already to no avail. Look for her to close late for a slice here.
Race 9
(7) AVUNCULAR is in great form and he should be prominent throughout here. (8) STONEBRIDGE HALL goes to Moreau and he and the choice could race 1-2 from start to finish in this spot. (5) MOST WANTED LINDY is a great one to use underneath, but hard to like on top with two wins in his past 64 starts and none this year. (1) DOMINUM DEO is another infrequent winner who can take a slice in this spot.
Race 10
(1) SPORTS LEGEND went a huge trip from the 10-hole to just miss last week. The move inside must help; top call. (3) D M JOHNWICK closed well to finish just behind the choice in that race. I'll use him in this Pick 4. (6) CROSS MY MIND has some races that put him right there with these. (2) BIT OF LUCK should be a threat racing on or close to the lead here and he's another who could take this wide-open finale. (7) BARN ONE missed some time after racing well in the Grassroots; mixed signals here.
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