Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 9/26 Analysis

Meet Stats – 289 – 824 / $1,502.40 (-$142.20)
Best Bets – 47 – 80 / $142.40 (-$19.60)
Spot Plays – 25– 80 / $121.30 (- $34.80)
Best Bet – ROYAL RENEGADE – 4TH
Spot Play – SWAN BEFORE ALL – 8TH
Pick 5 – 1,2,4,5/1,2,5/2,3/3/3,4,6,8 = $19.20
Early Pick 4 – 3/3,4,6,8/2,7/4,7,9 = $24
Late Pick 4 – 4,7,9/4/7,8,9/3,4,5 = $27
Race 1 - 4YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 (F&M $25,000) LT **$50K GTD PICK-5**
(1) BIRTHDAY MAGIC comes off a sharp try and lands in a field that has many question marks; slight nod. (4) SHOTGUN PREACHER unleashed a 27 2/5 kicker to pass them all and break his maiden and while these are tougher, he could be up to it. (2) KNOPFLER should go better here in his second start back from the U.S. but he is now 1 for 17. (5) WHILE YOUR UP is obviously capable vs. these but getting a clean line may be the priority here with OSS Superfinals coming soon.
Race 2 - Two Year Olds
(5) TATTOO ARTIST was first-up racing Grand Circuit foes which was a tall task. He could take control of this race early. (1) SPORTS OBSESSION comes out of a fast race where he chased the leader home. He should be in the mix here. (2) EXAMINER HANOVER finished ahead of the choice last time, but he had a better trip. Here is another contender in a race where intent is near impossible to gauge from horse-to-horse. (7) ANETO is capable of challenging if he stars flat and gets asked to leave ahead of some of these.
Race 3 - 4YO and Younger NW2 or $25,000
(3) ANGERS BAYAMA was no secret on the board the other night and he delivered. He should double up vs. these. (2) PERKINS looks like the main danger off his most recent start where he kicked home quickly but keep in mind he was covered up the whole way and he is still 1 for 18. (4) SHADOW OF A DAUT should make up part of this Tri in this short field. (1) QUICKSTAR BLUECHIP looks next best; use underneath.
Race 4 - NW $3,900 L5 or $7,000 L10 **$50K GTD PICK-4**
(3) ROYAL RENEGADE chased some wild fractions last time and hung in there well in a fast race a class higher. He should take beating against these. (4) COOL ROCK has been raced aggressively recently to no avail. If he trips out this time, he could be right there. (2) 2 BR EZLIKSNDYMORNING is worth a look for the exotics shipping in from Flamboro with decent form. (6) BEACH PRO should be passing a few of these late to land in the Tri or Super.
Race 5 - ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD - 3YO Fillies
(5) HP TITANIA RUNNER and (4) HAVEONEFORME finished a 1/2-length apart last time they raced in a sires stake here and dropping out of Grand Circuit races they should be formidable; slight nod to the former but using both on multi-race tickets. (6) ANGIES LUCKY LADY was third in that same race and she could split the top two if she lays closer early here. (8) BRIGHT EYES M is flying under the radar now having made most of her $233K earlier in the summer but she is capable if she can find her best race; consider for the exotics.
Race 6 - 2YO and 3YO NW1 or $7,000LT
(7) ST LADS BEATS IT passed horses as the pace accelerated late in his debut and he can build off that encouraging start; top call. (2) ROCKIN ROLL BEACH was 2nd to the big chalk in the same race and he should be in the mix here. (6) COPPER is 0 for 23 but he should be good for a smaller share in this field. (1) DA NEWS is worth a look at a price with Roy driving in a field with no standouts.
Race 7 - ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 3YO Colts and Geldings
(7) FORBIDDEN TRADE should be the boss here vs. sires stakes foes but he needs to be mindful not to let (9) ALL WRAPPED UP get away from him on the lead. I'll use both on Pick 4 tickets. (4) ONLY FOR JUSTICE has improving form and I could see him toppling the top two with the right trip. (1) SOUTHWIND AVENGER should contend for a slice here adding Lasix and drawing inside.
Race 8 - NW 3 (F&M 5) or $40,000 (F&M $50,000)
(4) SWAN BEFORE ALL was game in defeat last time and this looks like a race that he can control from start-to-finish; top call. (2) EIGHTCLOCKSTORM is in good form - except for the miscue last time - and he could threaten late here if he stays flat. (6) SETTE DEO should be closing at the end of this mile and she can pass a few of these to take a share. (3) GRACEFUL similarly should pass some of these in the back 1/2; using underneath.
Race 9 - CLM HDCP $15,000 to $18,000
(7) TOPVILLE CHROME went a tough trip on the rim last time to just fail. A slightly easier trip can land him in the winner's circle here. (8) MACHO POLO continues to race tough and he will last on the lead one of these times soon; maybe tonight? (9) YOUNG DRUNK PUNK beat both choices last time and this likely boils down to a race between these three down the lane again. (5) STATE OF PLAY should be closing in the lane again; consider for the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 10 - F&M 4YO and Younger NW2 or $26,000 LT
(3) POSTMODERNISM comes back quicker and draws inside here; top call. (4) MONEYMAKESHERSMILE comes off a nice effort and she should be a big threat making her second start over this track. (5) SOMEBEACHBYTHESEA is stuck on zero wins this year, but she was very close last time and she is another who can win this competitive finale. (2) AZUCAR PIPEDREAM should get a good following trip and stick around for a share. (10) SUNSHINEATTHEBEACH would be rated higher if she drew better. I'll use her in the 4-5 slots in the exotics.