Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 9/20 Analysis
Best Bet: CENTURY FASHION (12th)
Spot Play: FOOT SOLDIER (4th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 6,9,10/1,2,4/1,2,10/2,6,8/6,7 = $32.40
EARLY PICK 4: 2,6,8/6,7/7,8/1,7,8,9 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 1,2,4/1,3,8/4,7,8/3 = $27
MEET STATS: 344 - 1054 / $1,976.50 BEST BETS: 55 - 94 / $191.10
SPOT PLAYS: 31 - 92 / $177.40
Race 1
(10) PENNANT SEELSTER has some talent and his previous gait issues and outer post should help drive the price up here. I like that Christoforou qualified him and he sticks here; I'll take a stab. (6) JUST JEWEL will probably go favored off his last start and he seems to have come around, but with a 0 for 16 record, what price will you take? (9) CHIEF JUSTICE has a similar profile with 19 tries and no wins, but he also has some of the best form here; your call. (7) JOHNNY BRAVO can close late for a slice if he doesn't break again.
Race 2
One thing to keep in mind when betting these Grassroots Semi-Finals is that there should be a lot more action than usual and it sometimes leads to chaotic results. Don't be afraid to take a flyer. (1) ROYALE ELITE has looked great winning both of his last two starts and he'll probably be tough to knock off here. (2) A ROYAL LINE had the worst of it at Grand River and his trip and chances should both improve here. (4) LA MAGIC was a sharp Grassroots winner in only his second start and he is an obvious threat here. (6) FITZGIBBONS is worth a look for the exotics off his most recent improved mile and he should be a big price again.
Race 3
(2) AT WILL was impressive in controlling things last time and he should be tough right back. (10) SPLURGE ON ME was equally impressive and he has the right driver to get him out of the 10-hole quickly; using. (1) P L MOLLY improved immediately with McClure driving and she could add some value to the Pick 5. (3) TYMAL ROYALTY was good racing from the 7-hole last time and she's not out of this.
Race 4
I thought (2) FOOT SOLDIER's last two starts were better than they look in the program and I expect Waples to send him this time; top call. (6) GOLDINTHEBADLANDS - winner of 4 of his last 5 out of town - is hard to overlook in this spot. (8) UNPRECEDENTED finished well in both of his last two starts but he was too far behind. If Zeron rolls him here, he might lead all the way. (1) DELOREAN SEELSTER has ability but also some issues. I'm inclined to use him underneath here.
Race 5
(6) DRAMATIC POINT and (7) WESTSLUCKY TERROR have excelled recently. It will likely come down to these two here and I'll give the nod to the former who seems more versatile with his racing styles. (5) AMERICAN MUSIC was too far back last time. If there is any battling between the two choices, he is the likely beneficiary. (1) EVERYONE HANOVER was better last time but well beaten by Westsluckyterror; consider using underneath.
Race 6
(7) STONEBRIDGE HALL drops and stands a good chance to pop here facing easier. (8) TAURUS DU PARC was a sharp winner at Flamboro when claimed and he merits a long look in this spot. (3) MOST WANTED LINDY is a good earner in this class but has won only twice in 63 starts; use underneath. (6) AVUNCULAR should be a factor utilizing his good gate speed to get position and he can stick around for a slice.
Race 7
(9) LARIAT SEELSTER has shown in his past two starts that he has the gate speed to get away well from the outside and he gets top call here. (7) JUDGE KEN is an obvious threat if he stays flat, but it's not easy to predict if he will trot or run. (8) MAGICAL JOURNEY is getting close to that initial win and he wouldn't be the worst stab here if he gets overlooked at the windows. (1) RAP ROYALTY has the look of one a Steacy wakeup candidate that pops at a price. He's another I wouldn't discount too quick here.
Race 8
(2) SPORTS FLIX is on the upswing and it's time for her to notch a win over the big track here. (1) FREYA SEELSTER is the obvious one to beat, but she will likely be odds-on again. (10) FREE EXCHANGE gets no favors from the post draw here; smaller share predicted. (4) KARANS CHOICE is a good one to use underneath as she will likely close belatedly again to hit the ticket.
Race 9
(4) KENOGAMI DARLING seemed to be carefully driven last time when coming off a break. With that clean line out of the way, I'll stick with her in this Grassroots Semi-Final. (2) AMERICAN PAGEANT came to life at big odds last time and she can contend here if she behaves again. (1) REBELLIOUS LADY was a closing 2nd to a strong winner and she merits respect off that improved effort, (9) PYRRHA looks solid to complete the Tri or Super and she should be a big price.
Race 10
(8) BETTER MOONON OVER was live last week and finished with determination. He may take these right down the road. (1) CHANTING HANOVER looked good flying down the middle of the track to get up to win and I'll use him in this Pick 4. (3) CARLISIMO is coming around at the right time and he should be right in the thick of things here. (4) B STONEY had little to offer when racing on the rim last week. His price will go up here, but that slow final quarter is concerning.
Race 11
(4) SHADOW SPARKS was solid racing first-over in a quagmire last time and she's starting to click at the right time. I expect another big effort here. (8) CLEARLY BETTER will likely get rolled early here by Drury and that would put her in a good spot to convert, likely at a price. (7) SOFT WIND HANOVER stopped on a sloppy track that was unkind to leaders all night long. She should rebound with a better try here. (3) BUCKINGHAM can sneak onto the Super ticket at a price.
Race 12
(3) CENTURY FARROH has won two in a row here in style and he should be hard to knock off here. (8) JMS DELIGHT made two moves to win last week, but he was no match for the choice two starts back; exacta factor. (1) WAGER ON ME has the look of an overlay that trips out following most of the way and pouncing late; beware. (8) MAINTENANCE MAN has won three of his last four, but he may have trouble with the choice early; small share predicted. (4) BOYS TURN raced well here twice straight and he should hit the High-5 ticket at a minimum.
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