Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 8/9 Analysis

Best Bet: FORBIDDEN TRADE (2nd)

Spot Play: JAMMIN JACK (6th)

Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 5,6,7 / 6 / 2,3,4,6 / 3,7,10 / 6,8 = $14.40

EARLY PICK 4: 3,7,10 / 6,8 / 6 / 1,2,3,5,8 = $30

LATE PICK 4: 1,2,3,5,7 / 1,5 / 2,4,5,8 / 7 = $40

MEET STATS: 244 - 743 / $1,455.20 BEST BETS: 39 - 67 / $136.90

SPOT PLAYS: 24 - 64 / $144.70

Race 1

(7) EX HANOVER has been aggressive in her last two starts but came up against the tough Beholder who isn’t in here. She is logical in this spot. (5) SNEEKER HANOVER won as expected when she finally got off post 10 and she can threaten here right back. (6) MISS JUBILEE HILL is capable for connections that spring upsets often in these situations. (3) ARABELLAS CADET should be good for another share.

Race 2

(6) FORBIDDEN TRADE sticks out here moving to a good post and I expect a more aggressive steer this time leading to a win. (8) SCARLETT RAIDER was solid in defeat last time chasing a loose leader and he should be a factor here. (7) CLOTHIER HANOVER had a useful opener and he could hit the ticket at a price. (4) MAGICAL JOURNEY is another with improving form to consider.

Race 3

(4) TALBOTCREEKWHISKEY continues to race well in every start and he may not even be chalk here, but he gets my call. (6) TORRIN HANOVER was finally unleashed and he produced a wicked mile, but I’m not sure I’d take a low price hoping for a repeat here. (3) CROSS MY MIND raced well despite missing 23 days and he’s a contender here that I’ll use in the Pick 5. (2) INTRIGUED AGAIN comes to play every week and if any kind of a pace battle develops, he will be passing other contenders late.

Race 4

(7) FLASH A SMILE improved in her second start with McNair at the controls – as many do – and she looks like the boss in here. (3) FARMGIRL TOUGH improved in her second start and Hudon may get aggressive and try to take control of this race on the backside; using. (10) FARGO HANOVER faces much easier here and she merits inclusion despite her post.

Race 5

(6) DREAM VACATION has done nothing wrong so far and he should continue his roll here. (8) SOUTHWIND AVENGER may have a chance here if he can stay in range of the choice. (5) JUMPSHOT has been solid, but he will be hard-pressed to beat the choice. (2) TYMAL HOUDINI is consistent and his excellent gate speed gives him a chance to hit the ticket.

Race 6

(6) JAMMIN JACK has been excellent since he returned from a short break and he looks best here. (1) GLIDER MAN converted at a huge price and he draws inside now. He should be a threat racing on or near the lead again. (3) COLLATERAL BEAUTY rallied late to win a Gold event vs. her own gender, but this assignment looks tougher; small share predicted. (4) SAY YOU DO should be a speed threat if he stays flat and he’s in with an upset chance.

Race 7

This is a tough race that could go several ways, but I’ll side with (1) SIR GALAHAD, who made a big move that he couldn’t sustain last time. A slightly better trip can get him a win here. (5) AUDREYS DREAM classes up well here and his speed can carry him a long way vs. these. (8) TOXICITY had two decent races with Jamieson at the controls and he is in with an upset chance vs. these. (2) THE LOAN RANGER won in this class six starts back then showed nothing vs. tougher. A wakeup effort would be no surprise.

Race 8

(2) TYMAL TULLO has dropped eight seconds in four starts and he’s in with a decent chance here in a race where he will be no better than third choice; upset special. (3) ROYAL ROB steps up off a sharp Grassroots win and he may be the one to beat here. (7) CT CONABRA was much the best at Georgian Downs, but this field looks tougher and he may be over bet off that blowout win. (1) KNIGHT ANGEL can be a contender if he can stay trotting leaving from the tricky 1 slot.

Race 9

(5) CRISP MANE was impressive grinding out a stake win last time and she should get the jump on likely chalk (1) SPRINGBRIDGE SASSY, who unleashed a ridiculous late kick in her debut but will be over bet here in a race she doesn’t need to win. (2) PAZZA HANOVER is solid and another to consider for the late Pick 4 in a tricky conditioned race where tactics and intent are hard to predict. (8) SPORTY SONG is sneaky in here and I can see her rallying late to crash the exotics.

Race 10

(4) WINDSONG OLYMPIA was one I liked last week that almost got the job done. She returns quicker here and can graduate vs. these. (5) CATSHARK raced okay finishing behind the choice in her first start over the track and she’s a contender. (8) FRISKY BEAVER – an $8,200 London Select sale buy – fired a 27-flat kicker in her lone qualifier and she could turn out to be a bargain. (9) SEA SHADOWS has shown plenty of early zip and she attracts Roy here which makes her interesting.

Race 11

(7) FOOT SOLDIER lands in a field where he should be prominent throughout; top call. (3) SPORTS BAND had an eventful trip last time, but his race two back puts him right there. (2) RMX ALLSTAR joins the Auciello barn and adds Lasix. Sharp improvement from him wouldn’t be a shock. (5) SOUTHWIND GRIZZLY took lots of action then broke last time. He fits here if he can stay pacing. (6) LISBURN was beaten by a good one last time and he could better this placing if he leaves and gets position early.