Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 8/23 Analysis
Best Bet: SUNSHINES FINEST (4th)
Spot Play: DREAMFAIR TECATE (10th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1/1,3,5/2,3,4,8/5/5,6 = $4.80
EARLY PICK 4: 5/5,6/3,7/1,3,4,7,8,10 = $24
LATE PICK 4: 1,3,4,7,8,10/4,6/2,5/4,5 = $48
MEET STATS: 278 - 850 / $1,626.40 BEST BETS: 46 - 77 / $159.40
SPOT PLAYS: 26 - 74 / $150.60
Race 1
(1) SOUTHWIND RAPUNZEL was an easy winner the only time she faced maidens and she looks best here at what will be a short price. (7) DOCS DARLIN is related to several local winners and it won't be a shock if she drops a few seconds and contends at first asking here. (6) JK MARDI SAYS was in a race with fast splits last time and she could do better here where a more moderate pace is likely. (3) WESTBEACH improved a bit last time and she should share vs. these.
Race 2
I still think (3) ROYAL ROB is the best one in here, but he needs to stay trotting, obviously. (5) SMART AS HILL may be able to work out the same good trip that carried him to two straight wins and that makes him dangerous here. (1) BLAZING TRAIL is consistent and that counts for something in these rookie trotter races; using. (2) CESAR DUHARAS looks next best in this short field.
Race 3
(8) ARVIKA was one of the more highly thought-of horses in The Stable's barn all winter and she could do at first asking here. (4) TEDDYS LITTLEANGEL is already a Gold winner and she is very dangerous here. (2) SISTERS PROMISE was odds-on vs. stakes company in her debut and raced okay. She's another who can take this. (3) PRESTO CHANGE O - also a Gold winner - is another contender to consider in what could be a very contentious race.
Race 4
(5) SUNSHINES FINEST powers home every week and he meets a field that he should handle here. (3) SO MUCH BETTOR looks like the main danger coming off a sharp closing effort. (1) SPORTS BAND takes shares regularly and his trip should be decent here; using underneath. (2) STONEBRIDGE GUARD made two moves last time, but this field looks tougher and another small share is likely his ceiling here.
Race 5
(5) LUKA SHENKO was excellent in defeat last week and he looks best here. (6) ROCKY J SQUIRREL was held up forever it seemed, and he couldn't reach a big bomb that built a large lead. He's a player here. (2) INTRIGUED AGAIN has a good kick on his best day. Look for him to close late for a slice here. (1) PHANTOM SEELSTER has a better chance to share moving back inside here.
Race 6
(3) SETTE DEO comes out of a race where she had no shot chasing slow fractions and Henry climbs aboard here which should mean a more aggressive steer is coming; call to upset. (7) DARK AS A POCKET is the obvious deserving favorite shooting for four straight here. (8) ANGEL FOR LIFE was first up in an impossible spot last week. She can hit the ticket here again. (4) MINOR OBSESSION was gifted a win on the front end last week and while she is still a contender, I don't see her getting that kind of trip again.
Race 7
(7) GLIDER MAN went too fast on the engine last week and paid the price late. A better trip could see him pop at a price here. (8) STRENGTH OF A WOMAN was a solid second in good time and she has the look of a contender here. (4) MISS LOO LOO BELLE drops from Gold company and she is another in with a shot in a race where I think you need to spread deep. (10) CINDY LYNN can close late for a slice vs. these.
Race 8
(6) ROUSSEAU fires home every week and he looks primed to graduate here. (4) FAST N FIRST is obvious facing much lesser here, but he may get overbet. (5) TWIN B FEARLESS is one with improving form that should be closing for a slice here. (2) CUSTOM CUT can improve sharply with the move inside here; consider for exotics.
Race 9
(5) JOHNNY BRAVO moves inside a couple of posts which could mean he gets a better start here and that might be all he needs to graduate from the maiden ranks. (2) JULA GRAND CRU raced well considering his layoff and he took money that night; using. (1) CRUZE ON OVER had an eventful trip last time. He's in with a shot vs. these. (3) VENICE was carefully-driven as chalk and he couldn't bridge the gap late. A small share is likely for him again.
Race 10
(4) DREAMFAIR TECATE is capable of much better if he leaves hard and with the move inside, perhaps Kelly will be sending him this time. (5) QUINTSENTIAL TERROR is hard to leave out here when you look at his form; using. (1) MISSION THREE comes out of a quick dash and he merits a long look vs. this group. (6) AMERICAN MUSIC comes off two wins racing vs. lesser, but he can contend here, too. (2) HES GOT SWAGGER wins close to 50% of the time and he should be on or near the lead here. He is worth a look at what might be a square price.
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