Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 8/2 Analysis
Best Bet: STEUBEN HANOVER (3rd)
Spot Play: SNEEKER HANOVER (7th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 5,6,8/5,6,10/4/3,7,9/3,4,5,6,9 = $27
EARLY PICK 4: 3,7,9/3,4,5,6,9/1,2,7/5 = $45
LATE PICK 4: 5,8/2,4,8/3/3,4,5,9 = $24
MEET STATS: 235 - 692 / $1,406.10 BEST BETS: 37 - 62 / $130.60
SPOT PLAYS: 22 - 59 / $138.00
Race 1
(8) STORMONT ROYALTY closed nicely into an accelerating late pace last week when facing a repeat winner who was a big chalk. These are easier and Hudon should put this mare into play earlier; slight nod. (6) APPRENTICE M is stuck on one win, but exits a good Gold try and is an obvious threat here, although she will likely get overbet. (5) EXS AND OHS gave it a good try on the engine last time and stuck around for a share. She should hit the ticket vs. these. (1) SENORITA BONITA's race in this class two starts back puts her in the picture; consider for exotics.
Race 2
(6) PAZZA HANOVER was game in defeat last time when she was nailed very late. She gets top billing here. (5) RUE HANOVER wasn't far behind the choice in a very good debut effort. The race could come down to these two at the wire. (10) SHADOW SPARKS missed some time but faces easier here and she isn't impossible and should be a square price. (1) SUNSHINEATTHEBEACH is capable of better if she can find a helmet to follow this time.
Race 3
(4) STEUBEN HANOVER was wrapped up last week despite only winning by 1/2 a length. Don't let the margin in the program fool you. This colt looked like the real deal that night and I'll single him in this Pick 5. (2) CESAR DUHARAS was a sharp winner two back before destroying overmatched Quebec-breds. He will be a threat here. (3) SMART AS HILL was a good third to the choice last time and she is another who should threaten in this short field. (5) MONEY HILL is a homebred that is related to one decent one. He could better this placing at first asking.
Race 4
(3) SAINT ALBRAY got in another bad spot last time and paid the price. Maybe Filion just rolls her this time in a spot where she should excel. (9) PROPOSE showed speed two back vs. Gold company and you have to think Henry will be leaving with her this time; using. (7) THREE ROCKS showed some late interest last time and she's a good one to use underneath here. (2) ABERDEEN SEELSTER exits Gold company and draws better. She should wake up with an improved effort.
Race 5
(3) JAMMIN JACK is a Steacy pupil that is obviously improving, and he can double up vs. these. (6) SMOKE AND MIRRORS has yet to win this year, but her last two starts were better efforts and her best race puts her right there with these. (4) STORMONT CHEF gets Hudon back in a spot where she should be competitive; using. (5) Y C BROADWAY blew up the tote board last week, but he dropped three seconds and he's another in with a shot here.
Race 6
(1) FOOT SOLDIER did all the heavy lifting racing uncovered on the rim last time only to get nailed late. He looks solid here. (7) DRAMATIC POINT similarly couldn't close the deal after making a first up move, but he is still sharp and dangerous. (2) BARN ONE looks good enough if you can put a line through the Grand River race in which it seems nothing went right. (5) MYSTERY PHIL never misses a check and he should at least make the Super ticket here.
Race 7
(5) SNEEKER HANOVER finally moves off the 10-hole and she gets the nod here based on several good tries from that worst post. (8) IMF was beaten in the final stride last time in a sharp effort and she should convert soon. (7) THE MAGIC NUMBER has improving form and is one to consider for the exotics here. (4) DONATO LANE was decent enough in his debut to suggest that he can contend here if he stays flat and he should be a square price.
Race 8
(4) DARK AS A POCKET - as expected - left hard last time and the result was much different as she was an easy winner. She'll be tough here if similar tactics are employed. (2) LOVE WARRIOR moves inside after a decent debut effort from the worst post; using. (8) SETTE DEO requalified well and if she stays trotting here, she can be a threat. (9) CLUB BELVEDERE drops out of OSS Golds and if she gets a fast track here, a big wakeup effort would not be a shock.
Race 9
(3) QUINTS DREAM is one that's hard to predict because she often gets taken way back early, but she has the talent and speed to beat these. I'll gamble that she'll be put into this race early enough this time. (7) BIDFORA HUG converted a perfect trip to take her most recent start, but these aren't much tougher and if she blasts off the gate she may be able to work out a similar trip. (1) LADY GRANDE faces much easier here and she could produce a better effort. (6) JENNAS DELIGHT keeps chopping time off each start and she should take at least a slice here.
Race 10
(5) WINDSONG OLYMPIA adds Lasix after a decent effort when she was in a hopeless spot trying to close into a 27-flat final 1/4; top call. (4) ANGEL OF DEATH was much closer throughout in her second start and she merits a look here. (9) FLIPPING FUN popped and stopped but she will be tighter now and is in with an upset chance here in a wide-open race. (3) CATSHARK had two decent starts out of town preparing for a move to the big circuit. She can contend here. (7) HEY SWEETIE is simply one that I can't back to win at this point after failing so many times when bet down.
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