Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 8/16 Analysis
Best Bet: TORRIN HANOVER (5th)
Spot Play: CONFESSION SESSION (2nd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,4/1,2,5,6/3,4/3,4,8/2 = $9.60
EARLY PICK 4: 3,4,8/2/1,6,7/1,3,7 = $27
LATE PICK 4: 2,3,4,7/3,5/1,5,7/6,7 = $48
MEET STATS: 262 - 797 / $1,560.40 BEST BETS: 43 - 72 / $149.90
SPOT PLAYS: 25 - 69 / $148.00
Race 1
(4) JK MARDI SAYS ships in off a sharp debut win and finds a good spot to double up; top call. (3) ACROSS HANOVER is another who had a nice debut that rates highly in this field; using. (7) WESTBEACH is the third second-time starter in the race who figures to build off her opener although the top two seem more likely to win this. (8) KEEP FOCUSED is getting closer and she may crash the exotics at a price this time.
Race 2
(2) CONFESSION SESSION shakes the hot Dark As A Pocket here and she should be prominent in this field. (5) ANGEL FOR LIFE will likely go favored exiting a steady diet of OSS Gold company. She figures. (1) SETTE DEO was motoring late last time. If she stays flat she can contend here. (6) LOVE WARRIOR gets Henry back for a second drive. Expect a more aggressive try this time.
Race 3
(4) ROYAL ROB simply looks fastest of this group at this point and he likely converts at a short price here. (3) STEUBEN HANOVER was picked off late last week, but he remains a contender. (1) BLAZING TRAIL missed a week, but he comes off a solid try and he should be heard from here. (2) SMART AS HILL likely won't get the same perfect trip here that he got last time. I'll play to beat him.
Race 4
(3) SNEEKER HANOVER was game in defeat last week and she looks best vs. these; top call. (4) ALONA is impossible to fault at this point. She's on my multi-race tickets. (8) EXS AND OHS gets put into play at the start by McClure and that makes her a threat here. (7) WARAWEE TRITON brings good form in from out of town; using underneath.
Race 5
(2) TORRIN HANOVER was cut loose too late last time vs. a winner that would lay over this group if he were in here. This gelding should handle these. (5) MYSTERY PHIL moves in to a better post and he should be in the thick of things against these. (4) LUKA SHENKO just wins, and he wouldn't be a huge shock here. (3) INTRIGUED AGAIN is better when he saves his burst for the stretch. He can rebound here and hit the ticket.
Race 6
(1) MAGICAL GLIDER adds Lasix here and note she won a Gold race three starts back; slight nod. (7) GOTTA PAY TO PLAY went a big trip from the worst post in the Dream of Glory Final. She's a contender here. (6) COLLATERAL BEAUTY had a tightener for this vs. colts which should keep her sharp for a good try here against her own gender. (2) SMOKE AND MIRRORS can't seem to break into the win column this year and a smaller share seems likely for her again.
Race 7
(1) TOO MUCH DUNCAN has shown tremendous speed - albeit on one of the faster tracks - but he may be able to bottom out this field. (7) DREAMFAIR TECATE missed a week, but his race at the end of July is sneaky-good and he has an upset chance here if he gets position near the front leaving the gate. (3) UNPRECEDENTED raced well enough from the 10-hole to suggest he can contend from this much better post. (5) ROCKY J SQUIRREL ships in off a solid win vs. Claimers, but these should be much tougher.
Race 8
(4) HAY DARLENE was decent in her first Mohawk Park try and she gets the slightest nod in a race where it looks like anything can happen. (3) VENICE's final 1/4 from August 10th puts him in contention if he is close enough at the 3/4 pole. (2) THE MAGIC NUMBER is one I keep expecting to pop up with a top effort, but his gait problems prevent it most nights. (7) UNION JACK has only one share in 15 starts, but his last race was better, and he is in with an upset chance in this field.
Race 9
(3) ILLUSIONEESTA saves her best for these lucrative sires stakes events and she's the one to beat here. (5) SORCERESS SEELSTER can be erratic at times, but her speed can also carry her to wins in this class and the time off after a break in stride may not be a bad thing for her. (1) SUPERLATIVE looks for six in a row here, but some of these are much tougher and I wouldn't take a low win price here. (2) MAGICAL LADY was 2nd to the choice in a Gold event two back and she can share here.
Race 10
(5) STONEBRIDGE GUARD is a seven-time winner facing a field that is a combined 0-59 lifetime. He'll need to drop some time here, but he gets my nod. (7) GIDEON SEELSTER lands in a good spot here and he would be no surprise vs. these. (1) SO MUCH BETTOR had a promising debut and he's another that I think you need on late Pick 4 tickets. (3) SOUTHWIND GRIZZLY has had 17 chances to no avail and a small share is again likely for him.
Race 11
(7) P L IDAHO is quirky in that he goes in and out of form quickly, but he should be able to double up in this spot. (6) J JS DELIVERY comes off a sharp win out of town and he may go right down the road here; using. (3) CALVIN K should be good for a share in this spot. (5) REEL - making his second start off a break - is also a good one to use underneath. (9) SHOCK N ROCK has found his best form racing out of town and he should be passing many of these in the final 1/4.
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