Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 8/1 Analysis

Meet Stats – 150 – 465 / $775.50 (-$153.50)
Best Bets – 25 – 4/ $72.30 (-$13.40)
Spot Plays – 9 – 42 / $43.80 (- $40.20)
Best Bet – GREEN POINT - (9TH)
Spot Play – CAMS TUX (6TH)
Pick 5 – 3,5,6,7/1,3,9,10/2,5/6,9/8,9 = $25.60
Early Pick 4 – 6,9/8,9/3,8/1,5,10 = $24
Late Pick 4 – 1,5,10/3,4,6/6/6,7,9 = $27
Race 1 – 4YO and Younger, NW 1 or $7,000 LT – **GTD $50K Pick 5**
If (7) SOUTHWIND SYLVESTER can behave himself - and there are certainly no guarantees - and trot the whole mile, he might break his maiden here. Trotting hopples may be the answer for him. (3) ANGEL MAGIC has shown that she’s capable at this level, she just needs to get in contention earlier. (5) TACTICAL TRIX should be close to the choice early and if they both stay trotting they could gap out the field then decide the winner down the lane. (6) THRU THE WICKETS’ best race was his most recent qualifier and that makes him worth a look here.
Race 2 – 2YO Fillies NW $7,000 LT
(1) ROBMOTION BLUE CHIP raced decently chasing a well-meant winner last week and he gets my nod here. (3) SAULSBROOK RAVEN can make some noise here on debut for hot trainer Budd; beware. (10) MAJOR BATTLE closed ground when the pace picked up late in her debut which is a good sing. I’ll use her in this pick 5 despite her post. (9) LOOK N FABULOUS improved with McClure driving last time. This is another possibility in a contentious race.
Race 3 – Define The World - 1st Leg - 2YO
(2) NYLANDER didn’t break any records in his debut but he displayed a high tuen of speed and professionalism down the lane and he looks the part of a very good racehorse. I expect him to shine in this series. (5) RIPPED AND READY closed ground into the teeth of a 27 4/5 kicker and he is the most likely upsetter here. (8) SEBASTIAN RAY had it all his own way but he couldn’t hold off a $300,000 yearling late. He is a contender for a share here. (6) HORSE TRADER has a good late kick and he’s not impossible here, but he may need a slowing late pace which likely won’t materialize.
Race 4 – F&M 4YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT - **GTD $50K Pick 4**
(9) AFFLUENT SEELSTER’s race on July 25th puts her right there with these and post 10 may help her price; top call. (6) OKA exits a very swift Grassroots mile and she should enter contention against these. (5) DRESS TO THE NINES is one that I picked on top for several weeks and she can’t seem to get there. I’ll jump ship here and use her underneath. (1) AGE IS A NUMBER can get a good following trip and take a slice here.
Race 5 - Ontario Sired 3YO Fillies, Grassroots Starters in 2019
(8) HALO ITS ME pressed quick splits while uncovered then drove away at Georgian Downs. If she gets put into this race early, she will be hard to deny. (9) CHAMPAGNE JANE is in peak form at the moment and she’s the other one I’ll use on all multi-race tickets. (3) ANGELIC SPEED should rebound with a better try here exiting the Golds; using underneath. (4) CAMBRIDGE KATE is improving and she could make it into the Tri or Exacta here.
Race 6 - CLM HDCP $8,000 to $10,000
It’s hard to go past (3) CAMS TUX here changing barns and adding Lasix. (8) LUKE AND DUKE has been racing decently and getting Roy to drive here likely means a speed blast is coming. (1) CHEAPSKATE HANOVER faces tougher here but gets McNair and his form has been very solid. He could sit a great trip here. (5) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER rarely misses a check; using underneath.
Race 7 - Pure Ivory - 1st Leg - 2YO Fillies - Late Pick 4
(1) WHOSE BLUES lived up to his $300K purchase price in her debut, effortlessly turning on the afterburners down the lane. She could be any kind. (10) INTENSE JUSTICE has shown versatility and been sure-gaited thus far. She looks the main danger from out there. (5) SPIRIT OF DEO’s debut three starts back would put her right there vs. these if she can duplicate it. She gets a notable driver switch and she’s not out of this. (3) ALYVIA DEO looks like a good one to use underneath in this spot.
Race 8 - CLM HDCP $12,000 to $15,000
(4) PUKKA gets a lukewarm nod here with the hope he can stay trotting this time. (3) A J DESTINY is worth a long look off the Pereira claim; using in the Pick 4. (6) ALACRITY is capable at this level and the short field should allow him to blast and get a spot near the front at the start. (2) EXPLOSIVE JET - with 14 slices in 24 tries this year - is best used underneath.
Race 9 - Ontario Sired 3YO Fillies, Grassroots Starters in 2019 NW $9,000 L5
(6) GREEN POINT was very live last week but she got hooked in an impossible early speed duel. That she still finished third makes that a very strong performance and I likely won’t be alone using her as a Pick 4 single. (9) SPRINGBRIDGE SASSY is coming around and she will pass them all one of these nights and blow up the tote board. (2) RED RIVER JANE is an obvious contender in this spot but I’ll use her underneath. (1) WINDSONG PARISIAN is in solid form and she can take a slice with a following trip.
Race 10 - 4YO and Younger NW2 or $25,000 LT
(6) VANILLA MALTED just wins and despite having nine wins this year, he gets into this non-winners of two because he meets the earning threshold (with his age allowance). He should be tough again. (7) LYONS COPPERTOP was no match for a very tough foe last time, but this could be an easier spot; using. (9) CAPTAIN NASH also couldn’t go with a very strong leader late, but that was a good try and he’s on my late Pick 4 ticket. (3) MOVIE STAR can share with a better start. (4) CORTEZ THE KILLER is a good one to use on the bottom here.