Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 7/5 Analysis
Best Bet: BLONDE MAGIC (6th)
Spot Play: FAMILY SPORTS (7th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,5,6,7/1,6,7/2,7,9/4,5/3,4,5 = $43.20
EARLY PICK 4: 4,5/3,4,5/9/3,4,7 = $18
LATE PICK 4: 3,4,7/4,5/3,6,8/3,4,7 = $54
MEET STATS: 187 - 538 / $1,145.20 BEST BETS: 30 - 49 / $106.40
SPOT PLAYS: 18 - 46 / $105.00
Race 1
(3) PRESTO CHANGE O has looked good in both qualifiers and she should be ready for a top effort at first asking here. (6) SNOOKER - a $32K London Select sale buy - is well-related and is another that looks well prepared for this debut. (5) CAMBRIDGE KATE - bought for $44K at the same London sale - is a 1/2-sister to $202K earned Mass Balance. Her lone qualifier was impressive; using. (1) ANGIES LUCKY LADY is owned by her driver who no doubt will be looking to get a piece of this. Use underneath.
Race 2
(1) BARN ONE went a big trip to win only to be taken down two starts back by a horse that may have beaten him if not for the interference nearing the wire. That was still a top effort and I expect more of the same here with him facing easier. (2) TORRIN HANOVER was in an impossible spot last week trying to race first up and catch the leader in the fastest quarter of the race. He should be even better this week; using. (7) MIGHTY MACH got an easy trip on the front to win, but he's still sharp and dangerous here. (4) SPICY TALKER likely closes for a smaller share again in this field.
Race 3
(7) JUMPSHOT made a nice late move in his debut which could set him up for a winning effort here. (9) BLAZING TRAIL is worth a look being from the first crop of Father Patrick, whose babies have been impressive so far. (2) DARLINGTON HALL is a full-brother to Buddy Hally, who has earned more than $542K and has taken a mark of 1:52 3/5. His June 25th qualifier was very good. (4) JUDGE KEN blew up last time following a promising debut. If he stays flat he should contend here.
Race 4
(4) HEY SWEETIE may have finally found a field that she should handle; slight nod. (5) SHARKS SUMMERSHANDY should be a top contender here following a start where she had broken equipment before the start and wagering on her was refunded. (2) STARTISTIC WONDER has improving form despite breaking in the stretch last time; using. (6) CABOWABOCUTTIE figures to take another slice here.
Race 5
(4) MAINTENANCE MAN was interfered with twice in his debut and he still finished with pace. He can take this with a clean journey. (3) CAPITANO ITALIANO got it all his own way and converted. He's a contender again, but this should be a tougher test. (5) DO YA THINK improved to take a win in his second start and Henry will likely be aggressive here again; using. (2) SPORTY MCSPORTSTER is a $75K Lexington buy that goes for a barn that sends everything ready. He's not out of this.
Race 6
(9) BLONDE MAGIC is in top form shooting for four straight wins and she will be tough to overhaul here. (3) MONI JUSTICE is one that impressed me earlier in the year who may be able to pose a threat late here and she will be a good price; using. (6) ALLOVERAGAIN could wake up making her second start coming off a sick scratch and facing much easier. (10) THE BACK NINE can pass a few of these late to take a slice.
Race 7
(7) FAMILY SPORTS exits a very quick dash in which he kept trying, but could only close mildly while pacing his own back 1/2 in 53 4/5. This should be an easier task. (4) SPORTS LEGEND fell just short in an OSS Gold event and he is sure to get pounded at the windows here. While he is one of the contenders, he's no lock. (3) GRANTMEAWISH had a rough trip last time vs. Gold company. He can rebound here with an easier journey. (1) PHIL THE THRILL is consistent and he should share here.
Race 8
(4) BEHOLDER ships in with sharp form and this shouldn't be a tough spot for her; top call. (5) MILLERS SONG moved up with Roy driving and he sticks here; using. (1) MISS LOO LOO BELLE faces easier here and her speed could last much longer in this spot; don't discount. (7) JACKIE NEWLANDS couldn't muster up enough late speed to get by last time; small share predicted here.
Race 9
(6) CHIEF JUSTICE had no shot last time trying to close from the back vs. stakes colts, but back with maidens he should be formidable here. (8) UVIE HANOVER produced a big mile to be second in a stake and she should be right there vs. these if she stays in striking range. (3) IMF raced well last time but the winner was long gone. I'll use her in this Pick 4, too. (7) PRINCESS STEPHANIE regularly takes shares but never seems to threaten the winner; use underneath.
Race 10
(3) MACH MESSIER cut some honest fractions on his way to an easy win last time and this spot seems no tougher; call to repeat. (7) CALVIN K was a sharp winner two back before facing the likes of Champagne Phil who is one tough customer. He fits better here; using. (4) MYBROTHERGEORGE raced well off the Marfisi claim and it wouldn't be a shock if he moved up here in his second start out of that barn. (1) GOTAMEETING barely makes the earnings threshold for this race and he has been doing well vs. lesser. He can make the ticket here. (9) VINCENT VAN GO took some action and was good last time. He could crash the exotics at a price here.
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