Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 7/19 Analysis

Best Bet: PARISIAN BLUE CHIP (10th)

Spot Play: SAINT ALBRAY (6th)

Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 4,6 / 2,3,4,6,7 / 1,3,4 / 3,4 / 1,2,3 = $36

EARLY PICK 4: 3,4 / 1,2,3 / 4,7 / 2,8,9 = $36

LATE PICK 4: 2,8,9 / 1,3,6 / 2,6,9 / 1 = $27

MEET STATS: 218 - 625 / $1,322.30 BEST BETS: 33 - 57 / $115.50

SPOT PLAYS: 21 - 54 / $131.00

Race 1

(4) CRUZE ON OVER was nailed late last week by a repeat winner. That was a good effort and this might be his best chance yet to break his maiden; top call. (6) JOHNNY BRAVO is interestingly by an unraced sire who has had limited success so far, but his July 3rd qualifier puts him in the mix here if he can replicate that effort. (5) PUMPING IRONY has had 19 chances and she finishes on the edges most nights. I expect more of the same here. (1) PRINCESS STEPHANIE isn’t impossible in this spot considering the good early speed that she normally displays.

Race 2

(3) PLANET HANOVER dropped more than five seconds in his debut race and he looks like a decent bet to convert here. (4) WAGER ON ME faced some good ones in the OSS Gold division in his debut and he picked up a check. He may go favored here off that mile. (2) QUATRAIN BLUE CHIP had a tough trip in his debut. He could do here with an improved journey. (7) LUZIANA has raced okay in both starts and he should hit the ticket.

Race 3

(4) STEUBEN HANOVER brought $200K at Harrisburg and he looks ready for a solid debut. (1) SWEET CHAPTER – a $37K Harrisburg buy – dropped more than five seconds in her July 13th qualifier and she should provide a stern challenge for the choice. (3) BLAZING TRAIL requalified well. I’ll toss him on my Pick 5 ticket here as a possible upsetter. (5) DELILAH SEELSTER brought $34K at the London sale and the way she dropped her time in each qualifier makes her worth a look.

Race 4

(4) HEY SWEETIE tried hard last week, but a 26 4/5 kicker first-up was as fast as she could go. This is a good spot for her to exit the maiden ranks. (3) I SHADOW U didn’t like the 9-hole last time at Grand River and with her nose on the gate here, she rates an upset chance for a barn that has been going well. (1) BIDFORA HUG has improving form and she should take another slice here. (7) SCOTIANNANCYDIANE never gets bet, but she’s capable of rounding out the Tri or Super.

Race 5

(2) TAKTER went a tough trip from the worst post in a claiming series final at Georgian but he could get a much softer trip up front here, so he gets my nod. (1) DAYLON PHANTOM is capable but erratic and the last time he had the 1-hole here he left slowly then broke in the stretch. I’ll use him but wouldn’t take a short win price. (3) T BARR’s race from May 17th probably wins this; using. (6) THE MAGIC NUMBER has potential to close and hit the ticket if he can stay flat.

Race 6

(4) SAINT ALBRAY looked loaded on a helmet last time, but the cover stopped which didn’t help her cause. This is an easier assignment and she gets the nod. (7) UNDEFIABLE looks ready based on her July 13th qualifier; using. (3) FLASH A SMILE was bought for $37K at Harrisburg and she’s worth including in the exotics here at first asking. (1) CARBON CAPTURE – a $70K Harrisburg purchase – is a full-sister to Stolen Glimpse ($231K, 1:49 2/5 M). She’s another in with a shot here.

Race 7

(2) DRAMATIC POINT needed every inch of the stretch to finally get clearance last week, but he showed bravery sticking his nose out and he can double up vs. these. (9) ROCKABILLY CHARM did all the heavy lifting in that mile only to come up just short; using. (8) SPICY TALKER fires home quickly every start but never gets the right pace scenario. One of these times the front end will collapse late and he’ll roll by at a price. (5) THUNDER SOME WHERE could be much closer here if he can avoid being first up.

Race 8

(1) PERFETTO has put two solid miles in a row together and if he stays flat here, he should double up. (6) MISTER MAGIC blew up as the big chalk last time. If he stays trotting here, he should be a big threat. (3) ROAD TRIPPER goes for a stable that’s winning with everything these days; consider. (7) SPARE SEED brings good form in from Ottawa but he would likely need to drop five seconds to win this; small share predicted.

Race 9

(9) THE POWER OF MANY drops back to the claimed level and this barn won Monday’s opener with a 6/1 shot making the same move; top call. (6) HIGH BID raced well in both starts over this track and there is potential for him to close into a slowing late pace here. (2) TUSCANS MEMORY had a tough trip last time yet hung in there late. He’s in with a shot here. (3) THE BACK NINE comes up tagged here despite still being eligible for conditioned races. I’m not sure how to view that move.

Race 10

(1) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP couldn’t chase down a sharp repeat winner last time but she looks best here. (7) MITTANY NICOLE is still stuck on one win, but getting Roy here could wake her up. (2) STONEBRIDGE ENVY had a nightmarish trip last week. She should get a much better trip here and take a share. (10) CARDIFF is capable, but post 10 likely limits her to taking a small share. (5) CAMPASSION can pass a few of these late to land on the edges.