Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 5/9 Analysis
Best Bet: LEADER TONIGHT (4th)
Spot Play: MOHAWK SEELSTER (9th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Pick 5 – 1,2,3,6/6,7/1,2/1,4/5,7,8 = $19.20
Early Pick 4 – 1,2/5,7,8/2,4/1,3,9 = $36
Late Pick 4 – 1,3,9/1,2,5,7,9//8/3,10 = $30
MEET STATS: 304 - 981 / $1,765.30 (-$194.70)
BEST BETS: 41 - 90 / $136.20 (-$36.70)
SPOT PLAYS: 21 - 91 / $153.30 (-$28.70)
Race 1
(1) NORTHERN CAVALIER has shown in his past two starts that he has another gear for the final quarter and while he obviously faces much better company here, that will help boost his price and he may be up to it. (2) DARK AS A POCKET has by far the fastest mark here and while that was taken over the speedy Red Mile surface, he is a top contender nonetheless. (6) KNIGHT ANGEL raced against some tough ones last year and I like his May 3rd qualifier; using. (3) NORTHERN DREAM ships north in good form and she's another possibility in a good Pick 5 kickoff race.
Race 2
(6) SWIFT ALLY won well last week despite missing five weeks. She could be even sharper now and she's the one to beat here. (7) TWIN B BETTY came out ready for the Steacy barn who won with another longshot on the same night that was making her 2019 debut. I'll use her in this Pick 5. (4) PRIVACY HANOVER got up at big odds last time, but the top two choices should be much tougher; using underneath. (2) SMILE SALLY is capable of better, especially if she sits in and takes a trip.
Race 3
(2) HETTIES MAGIC closed well in her season debut and I'll take a stab on her here in a race with little form. (1) JMR PINARELLO shows some lines last year that could win this if he could produce one of those efforts. (8) THE MAGIC OF LIFE should be closing late again to take a small share. (9) KING FOR LIFE continues to leave hard then falter late. He may need a 'B' track to take his maiden win.
Race 4
(1) LEADER TONIGHT left for the front then was overtaken by two rivals and by the time they hit the 3/8ths pole, the horse in front of him was stopping abruptly and he had nowhere to go except backward. He can rebound here and control this race. (4) FOX VALLLEY B GUMP was rallying best late to just miss and he will rightfully get plenty of play here. (2) KINGOFBROKENHEARTS seems destined to take another slice here. (10) CAMSKING made a sharp middle move then went on to score an upset but I'm inclined to play against him from this post.
Race 5
(5) SUNSHINEATTHEBEACH just missed last time and she looks like she may have caught a field she can beat here; top call. (8) JULIASPRECIOUSGIRL made a good move to the front in the same race but there was plenty of outside action and leader changes. She is a player here off that decent debut. (7) CATCHAFEWRAYS goes for a barn that has been sending everything ready; using. (9) FARGO HANOVER is worth a look for the exotics after getting heavily bet last time in her season's debut.
Race 6
(4) SILVER BEAST just missed to a highly-touted unbeaten rival last time and he may have slowed it down too much then. I'll give him the call to upset (2) SUGARTOWN, who is the likely favorite shipping in off some fast miles. (3) EXCALIBER SEELSTER qualified well for this sophomore debut and he should be heard from. (1) PRESTIGE SEELSTER was second to a top Ontario colt in his April 29th qualifier; consider for exotics.
Race 7
(9) TORRIN HANOVER drops to the bottom here and he should be the one to beat vs. this group. (3) BIG BANG BOOM takes the same class drop and he could trip out near the front; using. (1) PRINT MEDIA should get a better trip here leaving from the inside and he has an upset chance. (7) LEVIS DAY can hit the board if he can find a live helmet to follow; consider for exotics.
Race 8
(7) GAMBLINTERROR was the first leader then fifth at the 3/4 which isn't a scenario that you see often at this track. He gets a slight nod in a very contentious dash. (9) SILAS SEELSTER had a nice tightener and he could jump up and upset here. (2) JOE MCDUDE has a much better chance moving inside here. (1) ARCANE SEELSTER gets Roy here and he could improve sharply in his second start.
Race 9
(8) MOHAWK SEELSTER continues his march to stakes season and coming off a race where he kicked home in 26 2/5 to win, he gets top call here. (10) TWIN B WATCHING exits a tough stakes series and he should be a threat here despite his post. (7) BATTLE STRONG got up to beat a tough rival last week and he should make the ticket vs. these. (5) THE FIRST STEP should be closing belatedly to take a share in this sophomore debut.
Race 10
(3) STONEBRIDGE SURF came back ready to roll and he can double up in this spot. (10) PRICELESS BEACH is an obvious threat on paper, but its hard to say how he will be driven from out there. I'll use him in the Pick 4, though. (1) JOHN MAC was 2nd to the one above last time and he should be in the thick of things here, too. (5) BRONSONS DELIGHT is a good one to use in the 3-4-5 slots in the exotics here. (2) RAYS CREDIT is another one to use on the bottom only as he can close for a smaller share.