Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 5/23 Analysis
Best Bet: BLUE MAGIC (8th)
Spot Play: SOUTHWIND FROST (1st)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Pick 5 - 2,3,5,6/1,5,7/4,6/2,5,9/1,3,7 = $43.20
Early Pick 4 - 2,5,9/1,3,7/2,3/2,4,8 = $54
Late Pick 4 - 2,4/5,7/1,2,3,5/1,4 = $32
FINAL WINTER MEET STATS: 331 - 1044 / $1,927.20 (-$160.80)
BEST BETS: 45 - 96 / $157.50 (-$34.50)
SPOT PLAYS: 22 - 96 / $168.40 (-$23.60)
Race 1
(3) SOUTHWIND FROST had a decent race first time over this surface now he returns quicker and draws better. His 28-flat kicker plays well here. (2) TYMAL TULLO is getting closer and he gets Roy to drive here; using. (6) LEFKADA qualified sharply and she draws well, and she should produce a good debut effort here. (5) CLASS ANGEL faces much easier here and this is McClure's first drive back from injury. This stable has been hot, so I'll toss her in Pick 5's.
Race 2
(5) REAL WICKED paced a tough mile on the rim against a big chalk in London on Monday and he should be tough in here if he goes on short rest. (7) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER was paced off his feet in quick fractions at Flamboro Sunday night, but he fits here, and he should be closing late. (1) CAMS TUX last two starts were much better than many of his previous miles. He's in the mix here. (2) BRICKMAN is still stuck on zero wins this year, but from an inside post he should be good for a share.
Race 3
(4) OBERTO kept it together racing over an off track last time and if he behaves here he'll have a good shot of recording his maiden win. (6) THE MAGIC OF LIFE obviously has some talent and he should contend despite having a driver that rarely races at this track. (8) JUSTICE SOCIETY's race two back puts her right there with these but she is one of many that may or may not stay flat. (3) CONFESSION SESSION seems destined for another small share vs. these.
Race 4
When last seen in a pari-mutuel race, (2) SALUTATION was finishing second from the 10-hole in a stakes series final. Her qualifiers are just okay which makes me think she'll bring a price here. (9) TRIP ACES HANOVER almost blew up the tote board last time and she has the look of a major contender here. (5) BLUEWATER BEACH was right there vs. similar and that winner came back to repeat; using. (7) SWEET WESTERN is worth a look for the exotics going for a hot barn.
Race 5
(3) BR EZLIKSNDYMORNIN gets back into a class where he dominated in April and if all is okay with him, he could be tough to beat here. (1) HOWMAC DIAMOND adds Lasix and driver Henry after a good try last time. he can threaten here. (7) HERCULE J M got Roy last week and he engineered a huge upset by working out a perfect trip. More of the same isn't impossible here. (5) STATE OF PLAY improved sharply last time and he's worth a look for the exotics.
Race 6
(3) GRACEFUL took heavy action last week and she proved to be much the best. She gets the same post here coming back in the same class and she should prove hard to beat. (2) SUPER T is the only other horse in the field coming off a win and he's worth a look off that sharp effort. (10) OKEANOS is without question the best horse in this field, but there are much bigger races on his 2019 schedule and this could serve as a useful prep. (1) CLUB BELVEDERE could wake up dropping out of stakes company; consider using underneath.
Race 7
(8) MACHPAPERSCISSORS exits a race where the 2nd-place finisher came out of to win an OSS Grassroots stake in his next start. This gelding's 26 and change kickers stick out and he should be right there if he gets put into this race. (4) NAGLE - along with the rest of the field - engaged in futile chase of runaway winner Tyga Hanover last time. That was a good effort, considering. (2) WINDSUN RICKY comes off a strong effort in the slop and he is another contender who could take this contentious dash. (10) STRATEGIC THINKING goes for a barn that sends them ready; consider for exotics.
Race 8
(7) BLUE MAGIC was a Gold winner last year and she should improve sharply here in her second start of 2019; top call. (5) BOO THANG also makes his second start of the year and the first try was good; using. (9) TOMMI CANU HEARME qualified in fine style on May 17th and he's should be heard from at some point of this mile. (2) KNOPFLER closes late every week. I'll use him on the bottom again.
Race 9
(5) STONEBRIDGE SURF missed some time, but if he can repeat his April 29th mile, he should be tough right back. (3) SIZE ME UP will take some play off his last race, but that was a good try and he should contend here. (2) TWIN B JAYS qualified well over a track rated two seconds slow and he should be a player here in his sophomore debut. (1) QUATRAIN BLUE CHIP should improve off his opener and he is another possibility in a contentious race.
Race 10
(4) MISSION THREE has improved his final 1/4 speed in every start now he drops to the bottom level and he gets my nod here. (1) NOTETOSELF HANOVER is another closer who could get a setup here in a race that shows a few quick leavers on paper. (7) MAJOR HILL could go better here if he can clear quicker, but there is some speed to his inside, so it may be tough for him early. (6) HES A SENSATION drops, and he should get at least a piece of this. (5) RACEMUP has the early speed to get position and he should stick around to make the High-5 ticket.