Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 5/2 Analysis
Best Bet: SUNNY DEE (8th)
Spot Play: CONFESSION SESSION (6th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Pick 5 - 2,3,8/1,3,6/1,3,6,9/1,6/1,5,7 = $43.20
Early Pick 4 - 1,6/1,5,7/5,6,8/5,6 = $36
Late Pick 4 - 3/2,4,10/2,3,5/9,10 = $18
MEET STATS: 293 - 938 / $1,708.20 (-$165.80)
BEST BETS: 39 - 86 / $129.10 (-$35.80)
SPOT PLAYS: 19 - 87 / $138.40 (-$35.60)
Race 1
(2) KICKIN COWGIRL was simply too far back last time to make any impression. Post relief should be a big help here; top call. (8) SMILE SALLY was ready to roll in her sophomore debut and off that sharp win she merits inclusion in the Pick 5. (3) LOVELY DONNA came out of Smile Sally's qualifier to also win and she's another who can take this with a good trip. (7) SOUTHWIND RAPUNZEL finished okay in both qualifiers; consider for exotics.
Race 2
(6) OBERTO was decent racing off the shelf first time out of a new barn and the winner was just too strong late. I'll give him the nod here. (3) ANGRY EYES continues to close well and it's only a matter of time before she gets there for her maiden win; using. (1) ROSE RUN UNCLEBUCK showed promise last year and if he has matured a bit, he could take a maiden win here in his seasonal debut. (9) ROYAL RHYTHM faced some decent ones last year and while she's not out of this, she could get a conservative steer first time out from the 9-hole here.
Race 3
There appears to be a fair amount of early speed signed on here which could set the table for (1) KNOPFLER who gets a slight nod. (3) MAGICAL JOURNEY made two moves in an impressive 2019 debut win and he could be the one to beat here. (6) ANGIES LUCKYLADY shows a board finish in the Grand Circuit last year and while she is obviously capable, she no doubt has bigger fish to fry this summer. (9) GRACEFUL is worth a look off her strong qualifier taken in fast time for these.
Race 4
(6) KAYLIES REAL was passing horses while the pace accelerated in her April 22nd qualifier which is always a positive trait. I'll give her the call at first asking here. (1) MY BABY GIRL shows a race that would be good enough to win this if she has overcome her gait issues. Roy sticks which is a good sign. (4) LOVERS COVE adds Lasix for her 2019 debut. She's worth a look for the exotics at a price. (8) WINDSUN JAGRA is a good one to use on the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 5
(7) LANESIDE SPORTSGRL showed improvement last time and she is too well-bred to remain a maiden for very long; top call. (1) SAUBLE DELIGHTFUL was inexplicably taken to the back at odds of 2 to 5 last time and she never got untracked. Moving to an inner post, expect more aggression here. (5) JULIASPRECIOUSGIRL sports two solid qualifiers and she is definitely worth using vs. these. (3) SUNSHINEATTHEBEACH will be part of the pace again, but she needs to find more late.
Race 6
(8) CONFESSION SESSION finished with good late interest in her season's debut and her 26 4/5 kicker sticks out. She can beat these if she gets put into play. (5) SCARLETT RAIDER comes in off a solid qualifier and he showed promise last year. He should be the one to catch here. (6) ACE BI's 1:57 2/5 win over a sloppy surface rated two seconds off puts him right there vs. these; using. (2) FITZGIBBONS looks ready for a good try coming off the shelf; consider for exotics.
Race 7
(6) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE couldn't bridge a big gap in a race that had no flow. He should leave quicker here which gives him a better shot. (5) CAMS TUX reversed tactics successfully last time and he hasn't been this good in a while; using. (3) KWICKY KWANZAA drops back to the claimed level and gets McNair back; using. (10) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER would be rated higher if he drew better but this will be a tough chore from post 10.
Race 8
(3) SUNNY DEE puts her unbeaten streak on the line here but she qualified faster than any of her foes have ever raced, so she should be very tough to beat at a short price. (2) TWIN B SONYA was decent in her season debut and I'll try to get some exacta value using her underneath. (4) BE BEST was right behind the choice in her qualifier and she has some Gold lines on her card from last year. She should hit the board at least. (5) ARYA STARK is sneaky here and she is another who can hit the ticket at a price.
Race 9
(10) JOE MCDUDE was simply outsprinted by a persistent foe last time, but that was a very good effort and moving to the outside post will boost his price; top call. (4) SILAS SEELSTER qualified well over a mile track that typically yields fast times, but he looks ready and I'll use him in the Pick 4. (2) GAMBLINGTERROR passed horses in the fastest quarter of the race which indicates sharpness; using. (1) ARCANE SEELSTER is a good one to use on the bottom of Tri and Super bets here.
Race 10
(3) MAINTENANCE MAN gets an interesting barn switch here and with that comes a positive driver change to Drury. He may go right down the road. (5) B STONEY flew home but ran out of racetrack. He'll get bet off that effort, but he is a definite contender here. (2) BETTER MOONON OVER was dull in his season debut but he's capable of better and he can be right there with some improvement in this second start off the shelf. (7) AGEDCHEDAR HANOVER continues to pick up checks; using on the bottom.
Race 11
(9) BALDER SON powered home in 26 1/5 despite being uncovered on the rim in a very impressive two-move effort; call to repeat. (10) SIZE ME UP was beaten by a good colt last time and he fits here despite drawing the worst post. (6) BATTLE STRONG has been finishing fast in his qualifiers and he is worth using underneath here. (2) CARSONS SHADOW was strong winning his last start but the outside two are much tougher; small share predicted. (5) BOYS TURN gets a much better post and he could add some value to the exotics here.