Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 5/16 Analysis
Best Bet: CAMSKING (4th)
Spot Play: BETTORS WESTERN (9th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5 - 5,8,9/1,7,8/1,3/2/5,6,7,8,9 = $18
Early Pick 4 - 2/5,6,7,8,9/3,9,10/5,8 = $30
Late Pick 4 - 5,8/5,6/1/4,5,6,7,9 = $20
MEET STATS: 326 - 1023 / $1,893.50 (-$150.20)
BEST BETS: 45 - 94 / $140.60 (-$30.50)
SPOT PLAYS: 22 - 94 / $168.40 (-$19.60)
Race 1
This Pick 5 opener has upset written all over it with two of the better ones drawn outside, so I'll take a swing with (5) BLUE RIBBON GAL, who raced okay in her seasonal bow and now gets Drury back to drive. (8) ROYAL ESTEEM will rightfully take lots of action off her Pocono lines and she may be the one to catch here. (9) KNOPFLER is an obvious contender, but he may get too far back early leaving from this post. (2) GEMINI EDDIE is worth a look for the exotics shipping in with good form.
Race 2
(1) MACHO POLO is sneaky here in that the last time he drew inside five starts back he almost won in this class; slight nod. (7) TYGA HANOVER raced okay last time when wildly overbet. With that tightener out of the way, he can go forward here. (8) OK KUDO couldn't effectively follow a strong winner that paced a huge back 1/2 uncovered last time. He's in the mix for a barn that has been sending them ready. (5) ARCANE SEELSTER gets Jamieson back here and he could close late for a minor award.
Race 3
(3) SHESA SWEETHEART showed little vs. a winner that came right back to score again in a stakes elimination. The much-improved post puts her squarely in the picture here; top call. (1) JUSTICE SOCIETY had a nice opener and she rates highly in this field; using. (2) KING FOR LIFE always appears to be a speed threat, but he needs a quicker final quarter to win over this track. (4) P L MATT can improve here coming off an even effort in his seasonal bow.
Race 4
(2) CAMSKING raced huge in defeat from the 10-hole last time. He should be very tough in here moving inside. (7) KINGOFBROKENHEARTS was moving late with the winner but he couldn't gain on him. He will need to keep the choice in his sights here to have a chance. (5) SOMEHOWSOMEDAY is getting closer and he's not impossible in this spot with the recent improvement that he has shown. (9) BALLPARKFRANK may sneak onto the Super ticket if he can stay pacing this time. Take note of his three straight 27 4/5 kickers.
Race 5
(7) PRINCE ADAIR was ultra-impressive winning on May 6th, pacing a powerful back half and looking good doing it. I'll stick with him here. (8) BETTER UP is classy and fast, and his trainer sends them out ready; using. (6) CRUISE CAPTAIN obviously fits better here, and he should be a threat here. (9) CARSONS SHADOW flew by late after an easy trip and he will be a price again. He can close for a slice.
Race 6
(9) SOUTHWIND FROST exits a super-fast race for these types and he moves into a barn that is potent with both trotters and new acquisitions; top call. (10) HEY JOCK was finishing fast last time and he picks up Roy to drive here. I'll use this one as a price option. (3) CORNERSTONE can be a factor if she stays flat, but it's hard to predict if that will happen. (2) RAISING ROYALTY is another with gait issues that qualified well and he's worth a look for the exotics.
Race 7
(8) LADY MAYA had a rough journey last time and still fared decently. Roy can trip her out here and win at a price. (5) BLUEWATER BEACH finished ahead of the choice and she is an obvious threat here. (7) NEW WRITER keeps driver McNair here which makes me take a price look for the bottom of Tris and Supers. (4) PASSPORT HANOVER has ability and she should bounce back here and contend for at least a share.
Race 8
(5) TARRYN A STRIP motored home to win for a barn that has been on fire this spring. She can repeat here. (6) WESTBEACH was up against it chasing after an unbeaten filly and she should be a big threat this time. (2) MAGNOLIA SEELSTER - third to the choice last time, can take another slice here. (7) SOUTHWIND RAPUNZEL raced well against a sharp winner and she should be in the mix from the start; using underneath.
Race 9
(1) BETTORS WESTERN had a long trip on the rim last week chasing a class-dropping winner that just jogged. He gets to plunge to the lowest conditioned level here and he should be very tough in this spot. (2) MAJOR HILL also drops, but he is still showing a goose egg in the win column this year, so he's hard to accept a short price on. (8) MOONWRITER has raced well on this circuit previously and he is capable of sneaking onto the ticket at a price. (6) BIG TIME SUNRISE paced evenly coming off a break and he is another who could pass a few to round out the Tri or Super here.
Race 10
(5) FIXED IDEA exploded late to win at Flamboro last Saturday despite having missed close to six weeks. He should be even sharper here; top call. (4) THE FIRST STEP came flying late and he was probably an unlucky loser in his 2019 debut. He's hard to leave out here. (6) B STONEY is another who comes off a sharp win that should enter contention here; using. (9) MOVIE STAR's race two back is good enough to put him right there with these if he can get a decent trip from out there. (7) TWIN B WATCHING had a rough trip here after missing some time. He is another who could pop in a very contentious race.