Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 4/4 Analysis
Best Bet: SAUBLE DELIGHTFUL (2nd)
Spot Play: GAMBLINGTERROR (7th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,4,6/2/2,4,6,7/5,6,7/1,5 = $10.80
EARLY PICK 4: 5,6,7/1,5/3,5,6/2,3 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 2,3/1,6/1,5,7/1,3,5,6 = $48
MEET STATS: 239 - 783 / $1,393.50 (-$236.10)
BEST BETS: 34 - 72 / $117.00 (-$27.00)
SPOT PLAYS: 18 - 72 / $132.10 (-$11.90)
Race 1
(4) SCOTTIES SPIRIT gets a notable trainer change to Moreau here and this isn't the toughest spot; top call. (6) EXPLOSIVE JET was out-tripped last week, he should be right there tonight. (1) BOP TOO THE TOP took a more aggressive approach last time and this barn has been winning with just about everything that this owner sends out the past month; using. (5) SVENSSON seems likely to take a smaller share here on the barn change.
Race 2
(2) SAUBLE DELIGHTFUL seems to lay over these off her impressive debut, but she will likely go off at odds-on; she gets the nod. (3) WINDSUN JAGRA showed early foot and wasn't that far behind the choice at the end; using. (1) HAKIMA paced a big back 1/2 winning at Flamboro and she should be in the hunt here. (5) MACHARITA quite often takes slices and she's a good one to use underneath here.
Race 3
(6) MAGICAL WINNER K moves into a hot barn, comes in off a sharp qualifier and lands in a good spot; top call. (2) FRIGGUN BIGGUN raced well from the worst post last time and he's getting closer to getting that maiden win; using. (4) SOUTHWIND SYLVESTER is bred too well to not improve at some point. I'll use him here. (7) SPEEDY DUNCAN showed flashes of promise in Grassroots races last year. He's another that could do with the right trip.
Race 4
(6) KINGOFBROKENHEARTS had no chance of catching a leader that stole a slow opening 1/2, but he was a game 2nd in defeat and this looks like an easier spot, so he gets the nod. (7) ARDYNE SPORTSTAR is worth a look off the claim and barn change alone. (5) CAPTAIN AMERICA suffered a similar fate to the choice in the same race and he could go much better here. (1) HOWMAC DIAMOND figures to follow and stay for a small share.
Race 5
(1) CHURCH BELLS was uncovered pressing while pacing a 27 1/5 third 1/4 which eventually took its toll. This looks like a much easier non-winners of two and she gets my nod. (5) LADY FINETUNE roared home after being covered the whole way but - while she's a contender - she could get overbet here due to her quick kicker. (3) P L LIGHTNING looks next best and she should hit the ticket here. (6) TWINSBURG showed some promise last year but her main goal will be some Ohio-bred stakes this year probably, so I'm not sure how cranked up she'll be for this.
Race 6
(3) KICKIN COWGIRL was conservatively driven in her debut and she rallied nicely late. A better start here puts her right there on the wire. (5) JUST MY SHADOW failed as a big chalk on a very sloppy track. She can bounce back here if the track is dry. (6) FEELINUPBEAT pressed then set some solid splits in a rapid mile. She's not out of this and I'll use her in the early Pick 4. (2) SUNSHINEATTHEBEACH should be better here with a start under her belt, but I'll use her underneath.
Race 7
(2) GAMBLINTERROR was kept in last week and while he had pace in the lane, the late tempo was against him. Expect more aggression with the driver change here. (3) GRAND POOBAH interests me because he paced 28 2/5 opening and closing quarters in his latest qualifier; using. (7) ASCENDANT is worth a look on the barn change to Shepherd. (10) CAPTAIN KOINE was chased down by a horse that paced up a storm late. He can offer some value to the exotics here.
Race 8
(1) MYSTICAL MISSION meets a field he should beat with a drop to the lowest conditioned class here. (6) MISTER MUSCLE was close in this class two starts back and he merits using in this late Pick 4. (5) MUSICAL SPELL is an in-and-outer, but with the right trip, he could upset. (3) BLAMEITONTHEWHISKY tripped out perfectly to upset last week. A smaller share is likely this time.
Race 9
(7) MY TEEN IDOL lands in a spot where the late pace should play into his good closing kick. (1) BRANDON HANOVER comes up tagged off a gritty winning effort rather than move up to face non-winners of three. This seems like a realistic move; using. (5) LYONS DELIGHT is about the only horse from this stable that hasn't won in the past month; his turn? (6) UBER HANOVER is sure to be overbet off a race where he stole two opening 29 quarters on his way to a big win. He is a bet against for me in this spot which looks much tougher.
Race 10
(3) HES A SENSATION has won off this similar scenario for this barn in the past, class dropping while returning from a layoff. He gets the nod. (5) OFFICER JONES need only be in position at the 3/4 to be a big threat in here. (6) JAYDENS PLACE has gone through a long winless drought but he fits here and could pop with the right trip. (1) DREAMFAIR BJ totally reversed his form to win in this class Monday night and he should be a threat here, but these are tougher. (2) MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS should be in the mix and take at least a slice vs. these.