Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 4/11 Analysis
Best Bet: SILVER BEAST (9th)
Spot Play: GAMBLINGTERROR (6th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 4,5,6/4,7/1,2,3,6/4,6,8/3,7 = $28.80
EARLY PICK 4: 4,6,8/3,7/3,6,7/7,8 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 7,8/1,3/3/2,7,8 = $12
MEET STATS: 253 - 814 / $1,487.40 (-$140.60)
BEST BETS: 34 - 75 / $117.00 (-$33.00)
SPOT PLAYS: 18 - 75 / $132.10 (-$17.90)
Race 1
(6) FIREY BEAUTY brings a new lifetime mark back from Florida and she gets a slight nod in this spot where there are a few viable options. (4) SUNSHINEATTHEBEACH finished strongly last time in a good effort and she should be a major player again here. (5) SURE FIRE KATE comes out of the same race and that was an improved effort; using. (2) MACHARITA continues to be a good one to use on the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 2
(4) SHAMROCK SHAKER tried to advance as the pace picked up last time which was a tough assignment. She could do here with a more aggressive steer. (7) ANGRY EYES is an obvious contender, but she gets the outermost post and I wonder if her rally will fall short again from there. (3) KING FOR LIFE will be up front early again and probably stick around for another share. (1) JUST A TAD broke through at Flamboro and he's worth a look here off that decent effort.
Race 3
This is a tough dash with many chances, but I'll give (1) TWIN B TIPSTER the slight nod. She showed enough in the Harvest Series that she could take these if ready. (3) QALIGIRL BLUE CHIP was improving at the end of last year and her qualifier signals readiness; using. (2) WINDSUN JAGRA likely faces easier here so she should move up in this spot. (6) MEDICI HANOVER shows some signs of improvement; consider for exotics.
Race 4
(8) BRANDON HANOVER won and was claimed by Auciello when dropped in for a tag for the first time. He could get taken here again and he also could get the same sweet trip; top call. (6) ROSE RUN SLIDER is worth a look on the barn change here and this doesn't appear to be the toughest spot. (4) LYONS DELIGHT wasn't far behind the choice last time and this barn has been running hot; using. (2) UBER HANOVER will likely set the early pace again, but I don't see him lasting in this spot.
Race 5
(3) LOFTY BEACH had a nice tightener now she draws well, and she should get put into this race. Notice she has a Grand Circuit line on her page from last year. (7) SKATER CHICK had a solid campaign last year and she looks ready to roll; using. (4) CHURCH BELLS comes off a solid win where she got a good trip. She could do again if she trips out. (8) RED RIVER JANE hasn't missed the board yet and she should be in the mix for the exotics.
Race 6
I'll give (3) GAMBLINTERROR one more crack hoping he sees an outside lane this week. (7) YARIS SEELSTER has two good qualifiers in tow for this seasonal debut and he's on my Pick 4 ticket as is (6) JOE MCDUDE who was unlucky to go winless last year. (1) CAPTAIN KOINE will be in the mix again, but I'm not interested in taking a low price on him in this spot.
Race 7
(8) MARQUIS VOLO returns in a good spot and from this post he should offer a square price. I'll stab with him here. (7) RAMAS LAST SON drops and he may not get bet much off his last two lines but he's capable in this spot; using. (3) MYSTICAL MISSION lost all hope at the start last week, but he can rebound with a board finish vs these if he stays trotting. (6) BLAMEITONTHEWHISKY is going good right now and he should take another slice here racing from close range.
Race 8
If (1) CAPITANO ITALIANO is a true North America Cup contender, this is a spot where he has to win. (3) CRUISE CAPTAIN has a Grand Circuit win on his page from last season and he adds Lasix here. He's in with an upset chance. (2) SURPRISING CREDIT has improved sharply recently, and he should be around for at least a share here. (5) RAYS CREDIT closed for 2nd at a huge price last time; use underneath.
Race 9
(3) SILVER BEAST finds a great spot to kick off his career and he gets McClure, who has been on fire lately; top call. (1) REDDIT HANOVER finishes fast every week and he could add some value to the exotics here. (2) ASCENDANT was expected to do better last week on the barn change. Maybe post improvement will help here. (7) GENESEE SEELSTER could last longer with Lasix added here.
Race 10
(7) L WEATHER B couldn't do much in a race where the leader ripped off quick fractions throughout at London. Making his second start for Moreau here, I'll give him the nod over (8) KINGOFBROKENHEARTS was has fit this class well and is a big threat to repeat. (2) HOWMAC DIAMOND did a lot of the work and hung in there well last week. He's the third one I'll use in this Pick 4. (4) HERCULE J M can sit a following trip and hang around for a share. (1) MIRAMICHI DAVID has solid form at Flamboro and while these are tougher, he can make the High-5 ticket at least.