Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 3/7 Analysis
Best Bet: IDEAL JET (5th)
Spot Play: ST LADS CASH (9th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,4/4,5,7/4,6,7/5,7,8/9 = $10.80
EARLY PICK 4: 5,7,8/9/8,9,10/3,4,5 = $27
LATE PICK 4: 3,4,5/1,5,8,9/3,4/2,4 = $48
MEET STATS: 189 - 632 / $1,043.80 (-$230.20)
BEST BETS: 26 - 57 / $91.30 (-$22.70)
SPOT PLAYS: 15 - 57 / $114.20 (+$0.20)
Race 1
This race looks like a great spot for a couple of horses that are making their debuts and I'll side with $30,000 London sale purchase (4) ROYAL ESTEEM who was very powerful in the final 1/4 of her lone qualifier. (1) KNOPFLER goes for a good trotting barn and also comes in with a sharp qualifier on his card. (2) PARADIGM has the speed to get good position early and she should stick around for a share. (6) HAY DARLENE typically finishes on the edges. I'll use her underneath here.
Race 2
(4) BIG BULLY finds a field that he should beat here, but he is also turning into a bit of a money burner. I'll give him the nod but use a couple of others in the Pick 5 including (5) BRONSONS DELIGHT, who is a 1/2-brother to good local mare and $213K earner American Sara. (7) WHERES MY MONEY attracts Roy and he showed the speed necessary to win this in his debut last summer; using. (6) SOMEWHERE BETTOR can improve on his debut and take a slice here.
Race 3
(4) VERO AMORE BI is risky here, but he drops back into a claimer making his second start for Gallucci and if he stays flat he should have a big shot. (6) BOP TOO THE TOP has been right there in every start for trainer Gilmour since being claimed. She should win one of these soon. (7) SVENSSON couldn't seal the deal when claimed by Shepherd. He is an obvious contender here if he stays flat. (5) LUCYS MAN races better at this level and the drop should help get him back on the board.
Race 4
(7) UBER HANOVER couldn't keep pace with another claimed horse that went coast-to-coast on the lead last week, but he could boss these off the fresh Gallucci claim. (5) CAPTAIN AMERICA ships in off a sharp win and he goes for a hot barn; using. (8) KINGOFBROKENHEARTS raced well for McClure last time and he sticks here. He could win this with the right trip. (10) ALLROK is worth a look off his qualifier. This trainer won one from the 10-hole last week with a 26 to 1 shot.
Race 5
(9) IDEAL JET returns from a break at the lowest level with a quick qualifier showing. He is likely to blast off early and take these on a merry chase. (7) NOTETOSELF HANOVER has improved his late speed recently and he could be the one if the late pace collapses. (1) WESTERN PHIL couldn't keep up to a very strong winner last time, but he figures in here for at least a slice. (8) LYONS WILLIAM is worth a look for the exotics on the class drop.
Race 6
(8) CHARMBO GOLDEN was elevated to a win last time when the winner had a pylon violation, but that disqualified winner came back in his next start to win. He gets the nod here in a race where the best horses appeared to all be lined up outside. (9) GUCCIOS OFFICE was in contention all the way last time and he should contend again here. (10) IF I MUST was great off the shelf after shipping in and he would likely be my top choice if he drew better here. (2) TRAVEL WINNER came back on to win last time but these are tougher and a small share is predicted.
Race 7
(3) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE was out-tripped last week in a narrow loss. He gets the nod here racing off the Johnson claim. (5) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER shaded the choice and a repeat isn't out of the question as he will be in great position again likely. (4) SURF REPORT raced better in this class Monday night and I'll use him here. (7) MCSINNER MAN can pass some horses late and close for a small piece of this.
Race 8
(5) ODD BALL is one that I'll take a stab on based on the barn change in what looks like a wide-open race. (1) ETERNAL QUEST has upset possibilities here coming in with some good form from London. (9) SPECTRE goes to a noted trotting trainer here and he's another that I'm going to use in this late Pick 4. (8) SMOKE MONKEY's 27 4/5 kicker last time jumps off the page and stamps him as a contender with these.
Race 9
(3) ST LADS CASH was good in his first start back for a hot barn and he should take beating here. (4) SPORTSCAM finished ahead of the choice when odds-on as both were passed by a firster that passed them all in the back 1/2. He's a contender again as is (1) GENESEE SEELSTER, who was also right there in the same race, although this one is better used underneath. (2) PICKEM could pass some of these and complete either the Tri or Super.
Race 10
(2) LETS HAVE ANOTHER was recently kept eligible to the North America Cup and his win streak should continue here unless (4) BEATINGTHEODDS uncorks another big mile or gets a better trip. The latter impressively paced his final 3/4 in 1:23 2/5 to pass them all in his debut. I'll use both in the Pick 4. (6) FIXED IDEA is 2 for 2 but the top two are much tougher and a smaller share is likely. (5) R U TALKIN is better than he showed in his last start and he should rebound here and take at least a slice. (3) AREUKIDINME CABBIE should be good for a share but is likely to finish on the edges vs. these.